【冠通研究】 【策略分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1736 元/吨低开低走，最终收于 1720 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-1.09%，持仓量 244734 手（-977 手）。前二十名主力持仓 席位来看，多头+3146 手，空头-585 手。其中，东证期货净多单增加 4908 手、 银河期货净多单减少 1747 手；方正中期净空单增加 3887 手；国泰君安净空单减 少 3050 手。 2025 年 6 月 6 日，尿素仓单数量 6069 张，环比上个交易日-288 张，其中辽 宁佳时-119 张，中原大化-25 张，眉山新都-135 张。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 连续下跌，关注反弹机会 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 6 日 今日尿素价格日内低开低走，日内继续走低。上游工厂价格出现分化，承 接出口订单企业价格保持坚挺，未承接出口企业销售压力明显。基本面来看， 供应端今日日产维持不变，多个统计口径日产均位于 20 万吨以上，限制上方空 间。需求端，目前整体偏弱势，正值麦收阶段，农需采购零星跟进，未阶段性 集中补货，复合肥工厂开工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Urea prices opened high and closed low intraday, with a slight upward movement in the afternoon and ended flat. The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a limited opportunity for a price rebound when agricultural demand is released during the wheat harvest peak [1]. - On the supply side, there was a temporary maintenance at Jiangsu Hengsheng, but the overall supply remains sufficient, with daily production still above 200,000 tons [1]. - On the demand side, compound fertilizer plants are in the summer end - stage, mainly digesting finished - product inventories, and some regional plants have reduced their operating rates, providing weak support for urea. Agricultural demand in North China is expected to pick up during the wheat harvest [1]. - Upstream factories are continuing to accumulate inventory due to weak demand and reduced new orders, but inventory may be reduced after the recovery of agricultural demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low intraday, then slightly rebounded in the afternoon and ended flat. Market buying sentiment is weak, and upstream factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders with stable prices. The supply is sufficient with a temporary maintenance at Jiangsu Hengsheng, and daily production is above 200,000 tons. Demand from compound fertilizer plants is weak, and agricultural demand in North China is expected to pick up. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, but there may be a chance to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand. The overall trend is bearish, with a limited chance of a rebound [1]. Futures and Spot Market Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, closed at 1774 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 219,590 lots (-11,488 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 6,744 lots and short positions decreased by 3,312 lots. Some futures companies' net long or short positions changed significantly. On June 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,409, a decrease of 210 compared to the previous trading day [2]. Spot - Market buying sentiment is weak. Upstream factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders with no pressure to receive new orders, and prices are stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1790 - 1830 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price remained flat. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 tons (-13 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - On June 4, 2025, the national urea daily production was 201,500 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared to last Friday [9]. Enterprise Inventory Data - As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1035,400 tons, an increase of 54,800 tons compared to last week, a 5.59% increase [11]. Pre - sale Order Days - As of June 4, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.47 days, a decrease of 0.47 days compared to the previous period, a 6.97% decrease [11].