Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Urea prices opened high and closed low intraday, with a slight upward movement in the afternoon and ended flat. The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a limited opportunity for a price rebound when agricultural demand is released during the wheat harvest peak [1]. - On the supply side, there was a temporary maintenance at Jiangsu Hengsheng, but the overall supply remains sufficient, with daily production still above 200,000 tons [1]. - On the demand side, compound fertilizer plants are in the summer end - stage, mainly digesting finished - product inventories, and some regional plants have reduced their operating rates, providing weak support for urea. Agricultural demand in North China is expected to pick up during the wheat harvest [1]. - Upstream factories are continuing to accumulate inventory due to weak demand and reduced new orders, but inventory may be reduced after the recovery of agricultural demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low intraday, then slightly rebounded in the afternoon and ended flat. Market buying sentiment is weak, and upstream factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders with stable prices. The supply is sufficient with a temporary maintenance at Jiangsu Hengsheng, and daily production is above 200,000 tons. Demand from compound fertilizer plants is weak, and agricultural demand in North China is expected to pick up. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, but there may be a chance to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand. The overall trend is bearish, with a limited chance of a rebound [1]. Futures and Spot Market Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, closed at 1774 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 219,590 lots (-11,488 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 6,744 lots and short positions decreased by 3,312 lots. Some futures companies' net long or short positions changed significantly. On June 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,409, a decrease of 210 compared to the previous trading day [2]. Spot - Market buying sentiment is weak. Upstream factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders with no pressure to receive new orders, and prices are stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1790 - 1830 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price remained flat. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 tons (-13 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - On June 4, 2025, the national urea daily production was 201,500 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared to last Friday [9]. Enterprise Inventory Data - As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1035,400 tons, an increase of 54,800 tons compared to last week, a 5.59% increase [11]. Pre - sale Order Days - As of June 4, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.47 days, a decrease of 0.47 days compared to the previous period, a 6.97% decrease [11].

【冠通研究】 成交趋缓，盘面小幅波动 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 21 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日高开低走日内震荡上行。上游工厂报价稳中下移，新单成交跟进 缓慢，市场观望情绪浓厚。供应端，本周产量继续维持 20 万吨日产波动，新疆 天运、锦疆临时停车，泉盛恢复产出，日产表现为小幅下降。出口政策下，出 口时间为第一阶段 2025 年 5-7 月，第二阶段 2025 年 8-9 月，所有出口业务须 于 2025 年 10 月 15 日前完成报关手续；实行产地法检制度。需求端，农业经销 商目前备肥谨慎，暂时未到集中备肥阶段。复合肥工厂提货有所好转，目前处 于夏季肥生产阶段，开工率回升，预计夏季肥需求阶段后，五月底六月初，生 产将逐渐停止，届时开工率有所下滑，对尿素需求支撑转弱。库存端口本期小 幅累库，需求端小幅走弱，市场对出口消息反映下，港口库存小幅增加，但为 避免提前集港，将进行厂检。整体来说，目前盘面情绪以需求旺季支撑为逻 辑，市场中短期依然震荡偏多，关注后期农需备肥情况，后续随着需求季节逐 渐结束，行情或将转弱。 【期现行情】 现货方面：上游工厂报价稳中下移，新单成交跟进缓慢，市场观望情绪浓厚。 山东、河 ...

【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1892 元/吨低开高走，日内收涨，最终收于 1892 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 0.85%，持仓量 245094 手（-5374 手）。前 二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+91 手，空头-7330 手。其中，宏源期货净多单 增加 2991 手、东证期货净多单增加 4933 手；永安期货净空单增加 2944 手；国 泰君安净空单增加 2188 手。 2025 年 5 月 15 日，尿素仓单数量 7352 张，环比上个交易日持平。 1 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【冠通研究】 下游需求边际增加，盘面震荡偏多 制作日期：2025 年 5 月 15 日 【策略分析】 尿素今日低开高走午后拉涨最终小幅翻红。上游工厂执行前期待发订单为主， 新但成交活跃度低，行情小幅走软。基本面情况相对稳定，供应端，日产位于 20 万吨关口窄幅上下波动，本周华昌短停，联盟及刘化复产，关注新增产能进度对 供应的影响，后期出口打开后，或造成局部供应流动性被抽调。需求端，情绪转 弱后，农业备肥偏谨慎。本期复合肥工厂方面，成品库存继续 ...