1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices rebounded recently due to gas - curtailment expectations, macro - level boosts, and export rumors, but the high - price acceptance of downstream buyers needs attention. As it is approaching the contract roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1] - The short - term spot price of urea is expected to be stable. The demand side is strengthening, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline smoothly. The daily output is expected to decrease further with the shutdown of southwest plants [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened higher and weakened during the day. After the trading volume improved, upstream factories raised prices. Although the futures closed down, the pending orders were still sufficient. The daily output decreased slightly due to winter natural gas curtailment and is expected to decline further with southwest plant shutdowns. The demand side strengthened, with the compound fertilizer factory's operating load increasing by 3.47%. The inventory is expected to decline smoothly [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,695 yuan/ton, closed at 1,688 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 209,271 lots, a decrease of 282 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 5,281 lots and short positions increased by 739 lots. For example, Ping An Futures had a net long increase of 1,567 lots and Dongzheng Futures had a net long decrease of 2,657 lots [2] - On December 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 9,353, an increase of 1,588 compared to the previous trading day. For instance, Jiashili Pingyuan (Yuntu Holdings UR) increased by 176 lots [2] Spot - After the transaction improved, upstream factories raised prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,630 - 1,690 yuan/ton, with Henan factories offering lower prices [1][4] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation rose while the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton [6] Supply Data - On December 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 195,300 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.48% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of December 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a 5.38% decrease [10] Pre - sale Order Days - As of December 5, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period, a 10.53% increase [10] Downstream Data - From November 29 to December 5, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.53%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 61.66%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week [12]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing. The market sentiment has improved, and the futures price is on a small rebound, with limited upside and downside space, mainly in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - The compound fertilizer has smooth sales, and the finished - product inventory is being depleted. The winter - storage pre - sale policy of factories is being introduced, but dealers' fertilizer - stocking this year is more cautious, and their purchasing ability may be weaker than in previous years [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Analysis - Futures: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1630 yuan/ton, closed at 1644 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The trading volume was 275,142 lots, an increase of 2887 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 1539 lots, and short positions increased by 4121 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot trading is considerable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton, with Henan's price at the lower end [1][5]. - Warehouse receipts: On November 6, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3900, the same as the previous trading day [3]. b) Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The basis of the January contract in Henan weakened to - 74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - Supply: On November 6, 2025, the national daily urea production was 204,000 tons, an increase of 4400 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 86.2% [10]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of November 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5781 million tons, an increase of 23,800 tons from the previous week, a 1.53% increase. The pre - sale order days were 7.29 days, a decrease of 0.24 days from the previous period, a 3.19% decrease [13]. - Downstream: From October 31 to November 7, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 31.04%, the same as the previous week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 53.2%, an increase of 3.22 percentage points from the previous week [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is showing signs of stabilizing after a decline. The production of urea has slightly decreased, and the cost side is affected by the coal price trend. Currently, the futures market lacks positive drivers [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1611 yuan/ton, closed at 1621 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.62%. The trading volume decreased by 121 lots to 312,046 lots. On October 22, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,556, a decrease of 501 compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Spot Market**: The upstream factories' sales situation is fair, maintaining a weak - stable operation. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1490 - 1540 yuan/ton [1][4]. 3.2 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 22, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,200 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons compared to the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.9% [9]. - **Inventory**: As of October 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6302 million tons, an increase of 14,800 tons from the previous week, a 0.92% increase. The pre - sale order days were 6.71 days, a decrease of 0.29 days from the previous period, a 4.14% decrease [10]. - **Basis**: Taking the Henan region as the benchmark, the basis of the January contract was - 81 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Urea prices opened high and closed low intraday, with a slight upward movement in the afternoon and ended flat. The overall trend is bearish, but there may be a limited opportunity for a price rebound when agricultural demand is released during the wheat harvest peak [1]. - On the supply side, there was a temporary maintenance at Jiangsu Hengsheng, but the overall supply remains sufficient, with daily production still above 200,000 tons [1]. - On the demand side, compound fertilizer plants are in the summer end - stage, mainly digesting finished - product inventories, and some regional plants have reduced their operating rates, providing weak support for urea. Agricultural demand in North China is expected to pick up during the wheat harvest [1]. - Upstream factories are continuing to accumulate inventory due to weak demand and reduced new orders, but inventory may be reduced after the recovery of agricultural demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened high and closed low intraday, then slightly rebounded in the afternoon and ended flat. Market buying sentiment is weak, and upstream factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders with stable prices. The supply is sufficient with a temporary maintenance at Jiangsu Hengsheng, and daily production is above 200,000 tons. Demand from compound fertilizer plants is weak, and agricultural demand in North China is expected to pick up. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, but there may be a chance to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand. The overall trend is bearish, with a limited chance of a rebound [1]. Futures and Spot Market Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1780 yuan/ton, closed at 1774 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00%. The trading volume was 219,590 lots (-11,488 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, long positions decreased by 6,744 lots and short positions decreased by 3,312 lots. Some futures companies' net long or short positions changed significantly. On June 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,409, a decrease of 210 compared to the previous trading day [2]. Spot - Market buying sentiment is weak. Upstream factories are mainly fulfilling previous orders with no pressure to receive new orders, and prices are stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1790 - 1830 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price remained flat. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 76 tons (-13 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - On June 4, 2025, the national urea daily production was 201,500 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons compared to last Friday [9]. Enterprise Inventory Data - As of June 4, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1035,400 tons, an increase of 54,800 tons compared to last week, a 5.59% increase [11]. Pre - sale Order Days - As of June 4, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.47 days, a decrease of 0.47 days compared to the previous period, a 6.97% decrease [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current sentiment of the urea market is supported by the peak demand season, and the market will remain oscillating and bullish in the short to medium term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent agricultural demand for fertilizer preparation. As the demand season gradually ends, the market may weaken [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea opened high and moved low today, with intraday oscillations moving upward. Upstream factory quotes are stable with a downward trend, new order transactions are slow to follow up, and market sentiment is cautious. On the supply side, this week's production continues to fluctuate around 200,000 tons per day. Xinjiang Tianyun and Jinjiang have temporarily halted production, while Quansheng has resumed output, resulting in a slight decrease in daily production. Under the export policy, the export time is divided into two phases: May - July 2025 and August - September 2025, and all export businesses must complete customs clearance procedures by October 15, 2025. A local inspection system for origin is implemented. On the demand side, agricultural distributors are currently cautious about fertilizer preparation as it is not yet the peak season. The fertilizer collection of compound fertilizer factories has improved, and they are currently in the production phase of summer fertilizers, with an increasing operating rate. It is expected that production will gradually stop at the end of May or early June after the peak demand for summer fertilizers, and the operating rate will decline, weakening the support for urea demand. There has been a slight accumulation of inventory this period, and the demand side has weakened slightly. In response to export news, port inventory has slightly increased, but factory inspections will be carried out to avoid early port concentration. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The main urea contract 2509 opened at 1,853 yuan/ton, fluctuated, and finally closed at 1,856 yuan/ton, forming a positive candlestick with a change of 0.22%. The trading volume was 224,598 lots (5,429 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, there were 3,804 long positions and 4,720 short positions. Hongta Futures increased its net long positions by 2,655 lots, Zhongtai Futures decreased its net long positions by 1,649 lots, Fangzhengzhong Futures increased its net short positions by 3,006 lots, and Haizheng Futures decreased its net short positions by 1,751 lots. On May 21, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,548, a decrease of 24 compared to the previous trading day, with Anhui Zhongneng (factory warehouse) decreasing by 24. [2] - Spot: Upstream factory quotes are stable with a downward trend, new order transactions are slow to follow up, and market sentiment is cautious. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei range from 1,820 to 1,850 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes are stable, while the futures closing price has increased. Based on the Shandong region, the basis has decreased compared to the previous trading day, and the basis for the September contract is 35 tons (-16 yuan/ton). [6] - Supply Data: According to Feiyitong data, on May 21, 2025, the national daily urea production was 199,500 tons, an increase of 15,000 tons compared to the previous day. [9] - Enterprise Inventory Data: According to Longzhong Information, as of May 21, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 917,400 tons, an increase of 100,200 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 12.26%. [10] - Pre - sale Order Days: According to Longzhong Information, as of May 21, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.94 days, a decrease of 0.35 days compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.56%. [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing slightly higher. The upstream factory mainly executed previous pending orders, with low trading activity and a slightly weaker market. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The daily production is fluctuating around 200,000 tons. Pay attention to the impact of new production capacity on supply. After the export is opened, it may cause the transfer of local supply liquidity. The agricultural fertilizer preparation is cautious. The compound fertilizer factory's inventory is decreasing, and the capacity utilization rate is increasing. The cost support is strong, and the sales of summer fertilizers are relatively better. During the final stage of summer fertilizers, the operating rate may gradually decline. This week, the inventory continued to decline significantly, and the demand increased. The price increase accelerated the inventory removal of traders, providing support for the futures price. Overall, the export rumors have been reflected in the futures price. Without significant positive or negative news, the futures price will fluctuate based on the fundamentals, but the trend remains strong. Currently, it is in the demand window for summer fertilizers, with strong demand support. At the same time, the export policy needs to be clarified. Be cautious about market operation risks [1]. Summary of Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low, moved high, and closed slightly higher. The upstream factory mainly executed previous pending orders, with low trading activity and a slightly weaker market. The fundamentals are relatively stable. The daily production is around 200,000 tons. Pay attention to the impact of new production capacity on supply. After the export is opened, it may cause the transfer of local supply liquidity. The agricultural fertilizer preparation is cautious. The compound fertilizer factory's inventory is decreasing, and the capacity utilization rate is increasing. The cost support is strong, and the sales of summer fertilizers are relatively better. During the final stage of summer fertilizers, the operating rate may gradually decline. This week, the inventory continued to decline significantly, and the demand increased. The price increase accelerated the inventory removal of traders, providing support for the futures price. Overall, the export rumors have been reflected in the futures price. Without significant positive or negative news, the futures price will fluctuate based on the fundamentals, but the trend remains strong. Currently, it is in the demand window for summer fertilizers, with strong demand support. At the same time, the export policy needs to be clarified. Be cautious about market operation risks [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main urea contract 2509 opened at 1892 yuan/ton, moved higher during the day, and closed at 1892 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The trading volume was 245,094 lots (-5,374 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, the long positions increased by 91 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,330 lots. Hongyuan Futures' net long positions increased by 2,991 lots, and Dongzheng Futures' net long positions increased by 4,933 lots. Yong'an Futures' net short positions increased by 2,944 lots, and Guotai Junan's net short positions increased by 2,188 lots [2]. - Spot: The upstream factory mainly executed previous pending orders, with low trading activity and a slightly weaker market. The ex-factory prices of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are still in the range of 1,830 - 1,850 yuan/ton. The prices of urea factories in Shanxi have declined slightly. Some small-granule urea factories are quoted at 1,820 - 1,830 yuan/ton, and some large-granule urea factories are quoted at 1,850 - 1,870 yuan/ton, a further reduction of about 20 yuan/ton [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes are stable, and the futures closing price has increased. Based on Shandong, the basis is the same as the previous trading day. The basis of the September contract is 28 yuan/ton (-16 yuan/ton) [9]. - Supply: On May 15, 2025, the national daily urea production was 201,400 tons, the same as yesterday [10]. - Downstream: From May 9th to May 15th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 40.26%, an increase of 2.36 percentage points from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 74.82%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points from last week [14].