1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inclusion of large - granular urea in the alternative delivery system in Northeast China since 2027 will improve the precision of corporate hedging and reduce logistics and delivery costs [1][9] - The difference in physical properties between large - and small - granular urea leads to different application scenarios, regional adaptability, and industrial chain positions, which in turn affects the price difference between the two [12][13][14] - The price difference between large - and small - granular urea shows seasonal characteristics and is affected by supply - side disturbances and global export structure differentiation [2][30][31] - The technical transformation of urea plants in Jincheng, Shanxi is a systematic upgrade, and the original production capacity is retained, and the impact on the price difference will gradually converge [43][45][50] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Introduction to Large - Granular Urea - **Industry Development Trend**: The domestic large - granular urea industry has seen steady expansion of production capacity and high - speed growth of output. The proportion of large - granular urea production capacity in the total domestic urea production capacity has increased from 17% in 2021 to 21% in 2025. In 2025, the output reached 14.35 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 17% [8] - **Policy Adjustment**: Since February 16, 2027, qualified large - granular urea can be used as an alternative delivery product in Heilongjiang, Jilin, and Liaoning, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton, which is in line with regional consumption characteristics and helps enterprises carry out hedging [1][9] 3.2 Comparison between Large - and Small - Granular Urea - **Physical Properties and Application Scenarios**: Large - granular urea has a slow dissolution rate, is suitable for mechanized deep application and the production of high - end compound fertilizers, and is mainly demanded in Northeast China. Small - granular urea dissolves quickly, is suitable for top - dressing, flushing, and spraying, and has strong market liquidity [13][14] - **Futures Delivery**: Small - granular urea is the benchmark delivery product, while large - granular urea can be used as an alternative delivery product in Northeast China starting from the 2703 contract, with a premium of 20 yuan/ton [15] 3.3 Large - Granular Urea Plants - **Regional Distribution**: North China is the most concentrated area for large - granular urea production capacity in China, accounting for 44% of the national total, with Shanxi accounting for 28% and Inner Mongolia accounting for 14% [16] - **Production Process**: The mainstream processes of large - granular urea plants are single - stage granulation and two - stage granulation. Two - stage granulation has better product quality, more flexible production conversion, and higher price [20][23] 3.4 Analysis of the Price Difference between Large - and Small - Granular Urea - **Seasonal Characteristics**: The price difference between large - and small - granular urea is wide in the fourth quarter due to winter fertilizer storage in Northeast China and narrow from June to August after the spring plowing [30] - **Influence Factors**: The price difference is affected by supply - side production capacity changes and the differentiation of export market preferences. Different regions in the international market have different preferences for large - and small - granular urea [31] - **Historical Price Difference Analysis**: In different years from 2022 to 2025, the price difference was affected by factors such as export policies, overseas demand, and production capacity maintenance. For example, in 2022, the price difference increased significantly due to the combination of strong export demand and reduced domestic supply of large - granular urea [37][38][39] 3.5 Technical Transformation Analysis of Urea Plants in Jincheng, Shanxi - **Reasons for Transformation**: Driven by environmental protection policies, Jincheng's urea enterprises are upgrading their coal gasification technology to meet the requirements of clean production [44] - **Transformation Plan**: Enterprises have chosen two technical routes: micro - pressurized pure - oxygen continuous gasification furnace and crushed/block coal pressurized gasification (Saiding furnace), and adopted the mode of "producing, transforming, and putting into operation simultaneously" [44][45] - **Transformation Progress**: The technical transformation project has made substantial progress, and the original production capacity has been retained. The impact on the supply of large - granular urea will gradually weaken [48][50]

Core Viewpoint - Urea futures experienced a slight increase of 0.62%, with the main contract closing at 1779.00 yuan, indicating a positive outlook for the market despite current challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - The main urea futures contract reached a peak of 1782.00 yuan during trading, reflecting a bullish sentiment in the market [1]. - Urea prices from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are reported between 1680-1720 yuan per ton, with limited low-price transactions due to a cold market atmosphere [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current supply remains stable with no significant production halts planned, and daily production is around 200,000 tons [2]. - Agricultural demand is improving, with a notable increase in compound fertilizer factory operations and inventory levels, although actual purchasing remains limited [2][3]. - Short-term fluctuations in the UR2605 contract are expected to remain within the 1750-1800 yuan range, influenced by stable production and limited agricultural demand during the traditional off-season [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Production Insights - Inventory levels have decreased to below one million tons, with expectations of continued inventory reduction as pre-holiday purchasing increases [2]. - The recovery of some production facilities is anticipated to support domestic urea output, although the overall impact on production levels is expected to be limited [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down at the end of the session. The spot market has weak trading sentiment. The supply pressure of high daily production is large, and the cost is supported by rising coal prices. The overall demand has improved compared to the early part of this month, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of winter storage [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down. The spot trading atmosphere was weak, with the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1,520 to 1,560 yuan/ton. The daily production continued to rise and was expected to remain high before the gas - fired devices were restricted. The cost was supported by rising coal prices. The autumn fertilizer was in the final stage, and the overall demand improved compared to the early part of this month, but the winter storage follow - up was not obvious, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate narrowly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,627 yuan/ton, closed at 1,625 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 6,006 lots to 264,103 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long positions decreased by 1,287 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,220 lots. On October 31, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts increased by 1,455 lots to 1,455 lots [2] - Spot: The spot trading enthusiasm was poor, and the market was weak. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,520 - 1,560 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price remained stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Supply: On October 31, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The short - term stabilization of agricultural demand is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand for urea. Urea price rebounds are blocked, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Urea futures opened low and moved high, closing down on the day. The domestic spot market was mainly stable, with factories mostly fulfilling previous orders, and demand was slightly weaker than in previous days. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan, and large orders from individual manufacturers were still negotiable [1][4] - The daily production of urea has rebounded slightly recently, but there are still factories under inspection and shutdown, so the output fluctuation is small. Due to the increasing losses of gas - fired units, Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down. With the approaching of winter gas and production restrictions, the daily production of gas - fired units is expected to decline next month. The profit of coal - water slurry process has continuously declined, and there is cost support below the urea futures price [1] - As time progresses, after the agricultural demand, the finished product inventory of factories is gradually being depleted, but it is still slightly higher than the previous period last year. Northeast compound fertilizer is expected to gradually start production in late November. As the autumn fertilizer production is coming to an end, the subsequent operating rate is expected to gradually increase, and the production of spring compound fertilizer will gradually start. The inventory accumulation rate in factories has decreased, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle, and the inventory is expected to climb moderately [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1636 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, closing down on the day, and finally closed at 1635 yuan/ton, forming a negative line, with a change rate of - 0.37% and a position of 273001 lots (- 8953 lots) [2] - On October 28, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2970, a decrease of 2318 from the previous trading day. Among the top 20 major positions in the main contract, long positions decreased by 5539 lots and short positions decreased by 6215 lots. Rongda Futures had a net long position of + 695 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of - 649 lots; CITIC Futures had a net short position of + 2287 lots, and CICC Wealth had a net short position of - 1014 lots [2] Spot - The domestic spot market was mainly stable, with factories mostly fulfilling previous orders, and demand was slightly weaker than in previous days. The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan, and large orders from individual manufacturers were still negotiable [4] Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, while the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [7] 3. Fundamental Tracking - On October 28, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190400 tons, unchanged from yesterday, with an operating rate of 80.45% [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a downward trend due to weak demand. However, with the recent rebound in coal port prices and potential concentrated agricultural demand and export stimulus next week, there may be a small - scale rebound in the urea market, but the overall trend remains bearish [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened low and continued to decline during the day today. Upstream factory prices are diverging, with those having export orders remaining firm and those without facing significant sales pressure. The supply side has a daily output above 200,000 tons, which restricts the upside. The demand side is weak, with scattered agricultural purchases during the wheat harvest and a decline in the compound fertilizer factory's operating rate, which is about 10% lower than the same period last year. Upstream factories are accumulating inventory, but there may be an opportunity to reduce inventory after the recovery of agricultural demand [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1,736 yuan/ton and closed at 1,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.09%. The open interest was 244,734 lots (-977 lots). Among the top twenty - position holders, long positions increased by 3,146 lots and short positions decreased by 585 lots. On June 6, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,069, a decrease of 288 compared to the previous trading day [2] Spot - Upstream factory prices are diverging. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,770 to 1,830 yuan/ton, and the transaction center continues to move down [3] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price also declined. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 110 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton) [7] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on June 6, 2025, the national daily urea output was 194,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]