Core Viewpoint - The main contract for urea in July experienced significant fluctuations, with prices rising and then falling, influenced by external market sentiments and a lack of clear trends in price movements [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply side remained relatively stable with minimal changes in existing load [1] - Demand increased seasonally due to higher compound fertilizer loads and export boosts, leading to smooth destocking in the urea industry [1] - However, at the end of the month, low terminal purchasing enthusiasm, declining port inventories, and adjustments in coal prices caused a rebound in industry inventories [1] Market Outlook - The overall improvement in supply and demand for urea was limited, providing insufficient support for market prices [1] - Future market dynamics are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic factors and industry conditions, with limited support for urea demand due to declining agricultural needs and insufficient industrial demand growth [1] - It is anticipated that urea prices will likely continue to experience wide fluctuations and adjustments in August [1] Arbitrage Opportunities - The 09 contract is expected to gradually reflect delivery logic, with insufficient rebound momentum [1] - As the main contract transitions, the price spread between UR09 and UR01 is expected to weaken, allowing for gradual profit-taking from previous short positions [1]