| 商品 | | 动力煤 | （元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/08/22 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/21 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/20 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/19 | -99.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/08/18 | -100.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 8 月 25 日） 一、动力煤 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 2025/08/22 2025/08/21 2025/08/20 2025/08/19 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties of Baocheng Futures on August 22, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50] Summary by Category Power Coal - The table shows the basis and spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of power coal from August 15 to August 21, 2025. The basis on August 21 was - 97.4 yuan/ton, and the spreads were all 0.0 [1][2] Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Data on the basis of energy commodities (fuel oil, INE crude oil, crude oil/asphalt) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are provided, along with the ratio of crude oil to asphalt and other information [7] Chemical Commodities - The basis data of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, PP) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of rubber on August 21 was - 920 yuan/ton [9] - The table shows the inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of chemical commodities (rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, ethylene glycol) and inter - variety spreads (LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, PP - 3*methanol) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 [11] Black Metals - The basis data of black metals (rebar, iron ore, coke, coking coal) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are given. For instance, the basis of rebar on August 21 was 199.0 yuan/ton [21] - The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, 9(10) - 5 month) and inter - variety spreads (rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, rebar - hot - rolled coil) of black metals are presented [20] Non - Ferrous Metals Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are shown. For example, the basis of copper on August 21 was 220 yuan/ton [28] London Market - Data on LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on August 21, 2025 are provided, including LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss [34] Agricultural Products - The basis data of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc.) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are presented [39] - The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of agricultural products (soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc.) are shown [39] - The inter - variety spreads (soybean No.1/corn, soybean No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, etc.) of agricultural products from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are provided [39] Stock Index Futures - The basis data of stock index futures (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) from August 15 to August 21, 2025 are given. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 21 was 5.87 [51] - The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of stock index futures are presented [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 20, 2025, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][39][50] 3. Summary by Category Power Coal - **Basis Data**: From August 13 to August 19, 2025, the basis of power coal was - 108.4, - 106.4, - 103.4, - 100.4, - 99.4 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, and 9 - 5 month were all 0.0 yuan/ton [2] Energy Chemicals Energy Commodities - **Basis and Ratio Data**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis and ratio from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 19 was - 1.87 yuan/ton [7] Chemical Commodities - **Basis Data**: For rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP, basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 19 was - 1025 yuan/ton [9] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was 80 yuan/ton [11] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LLDPE - PVC spread on August 19 was 2301 yuan/ton [11] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: For rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal, the 5 - 1 month, 9(10) - 1 month, and 9(10) - 5 month inter - period spreads are presented. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was 49.0 yuan/ton [20] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and the spread of rebar - hot rolled coil from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are given. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 19 was 4.08 [20] - **Basis Data**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on August 19 was 144.0 yuan/ton [21] Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - **Basis Data**: For copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of copper on August 19 was 170 yuan/ton [28] London Market - **LME Data**: Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the LME spread of copper was (96.85) [35] Agricultural Products - **Basis Data**: For soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 19 was - 6 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - 1 month, 9 - 1 month, 9 - 5 month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was 42 yuan/ton [39] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The ratios of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, and the spreads of soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are provided. For example, the ratio of soybeans No.1/corn on August 19 was 1.86 [39] Stock Index Futures - **Basis Data**: For CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, the basis data from August 13 to August 19, 2025 are presented. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 19 was 7.17 [51] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. For example, the next month - current month spread of CSI 300 was - 42.6 [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The report is a daily report on futures variety arbitrage data from Baocheng Futures on August 19, 2025, presenting the basis, inter - period, and inter - variety data of multiple futures varieties including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][5][21][27][40][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Power Coal - The basis data from August 12 to August 18, 2025, shows that the basis on August 18 was - 100.4 yuan/ton, compared to - 113.4 yuan/ton on August 12. The 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 inter - period spreads were all 0.0 during this period [2]. Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the basis of INE crude oil on August 18 was 163.63 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP are provided from August 12 to August 18, 2025. For instance, the basis of rubber on August 18 was - 920 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given, such as the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rubber being 85 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are also presented. For example, the LLDPE - PVC value on August 18 was 2269 yuan/ton [11]. Black Metals - Inter - period data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are shown. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of rebar was 46.0 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the rebar/iron ore ratio on August 18 was 4.09 [20]. - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of rebar on August 18 was 145.0 yuan/ton [21]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are given. For example, the basis of copper on August 18 was 220 yuan/ton [28]. - **London Market**: LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on August 18, 2025, are presented. For example, the LME premium/discount of copper was (96.75) [35]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc., from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of soybeans No.1 on August 18 was - 4 yuan/ton [41]. - Inter - period data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc., are given. For example, the 5 - 1 inter - period spread of soybeans No.1 was 41 yuan/ton. Inter - variety data for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc., from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are also presented. For example, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio on August 18 was 1.86 [41]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 12 to August 18, 2025, are provided. For example, the basis of CSI 300 on August 18 was 1.61 [52]. - Inter - period data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts and the next - quarter and current - quarter contracts, are presented. For example, the next - month minus current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 39.8 [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on August 18, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, covering aspects such as basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - commodity spreads. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - The basis data from August 11 to August 15, 2025, shows a trend of change, with values of - 115.4, - 113.4, - 108.4, - 106.4, and - 103.4 respectively. The spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0.0 [1][2] Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: For fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and spread are provided from August 11 to August 15, 2025 [6] - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from August 11 to August 15, 2025, show different trends of change [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are presented [9] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are provided [9] Black Metals - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9(10) - 1, and 9(10) - 5 for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given [18] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [18] - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are provided [19] Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [26] - **London Market**: Data such as LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss for LME non - ferrous metals on August 15, 2025, are provided [32] Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, etc. from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [37] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, etc. are given [37] - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The inter - commodity spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [37] Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from August 11 to August 15, 2025, are presented [48] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [50]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The report presents cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 15, 2025, providing data for investors to analyze potential arbitrage opportunities. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 15, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,415, the LME price was 9,685, and the ratio was 8.22. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, with a profit of - 184.92 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,510, the LME price was 2,816, and the ratio was 7.99. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.66, with a profit of - 1,868.19 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,710, the LME price was 2,607, and the ratio was 7.94. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.46, with a profit of - 1,366.84 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 121,500, the LME price was 14,964, and the ratio was 8.12. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, with a profit of - 1,860.66 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME price was 1,943, and the ratio was 8.60. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, with a profit of - 515.45 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were - 420, - 440, - 450, and - 450 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 499, 896, 1302, and 1707 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 120, - 105, - 95, and - 110, and the theoretical spreads were 216, 338, 460, and 582 [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 60, - 85, - 125, and - 180, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 331, 447, and 563 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were - 100, - 80, - 70, and - 45, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 315, 420, and 525 [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were - 1280, - 1140, - 950, and - 660 [4]. - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was 1690, and the theoretical spread was 5542 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 15 and - 435, and the theoretical spreads were 75 and 453 [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 90 and - 30, and the theoretical spreads were 65 and 196 [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 220 and 120, and the theoretical spreads were 108 and 219 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 15, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - contract) were 3.51, 3.81, 4.70, 0.92, 1.23, and 0.75 respectively; for London (three - contract), they were 3.43, 3.73, 4.91, 0.92, 1.32, and 0.70 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic butadiene market has seen minor adjustments. The short - term supply side shows no pressure, with some suppliers' prices remaining firm, but downstream procurement is still based on rigid demand. The domestic butadiene price is around 9400 - 9550 yuan/ton in some areas, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China is around 9200 yuan/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has been raised by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. Market quotations fluctuate greatly, but spot transactions are sluggish, especially after the late - session correction, with low terminal entry willingness. The price of private cis - butadiene rubber in the northern region is around 11600 - 11700 yuan/ton [3]. - For strategy operations, on the single - side, the macro - sentiment has weakened, and the br contract is consolidating. For arbitrage, after the spread widens again, consider going long BR and shorting RU or NR [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions of Butadiene and Cis - Butadiene Rubber - **Butadiene**: The closing price of the domestic BR2509.SHF is 11750 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; the settlement price is 11860 yuan/ton, up 0.81%. The trading volume is 80181, up 33.53%, and the open interest is 26557, down 0.49%. The international butadiene price has different changes, such as the FD Northwest Europe price down 0.62% to 800 dollars/ton and the FOB Europe price up 2.53% to 810 dollars/ton [3]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The ex - factory price has increased, but the spot transaction is slow. The inventory of merchants has increased by 1.47% to 24150 tons, while the inventory of traders has decreased by 3.06% to 7290 tons. The production has decreased by 5.93% to 2.74 million tons [3]. Price Spreads - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different contract months of butadiene rubber futures have significant changes, such as the "continuous one - continuous two" spread down 400% to - 15 yuan/ton and the "continuous two - continuous three" spread up 100% to 0 yuan/ton [3]. - **Cross - variety Spreads**: The BR - RU spread is - 4050 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the BR - NR spread is - 860 yuan/ton, down 2.38%. The spreads between different varieties also show certain fluctuations, like the butadiene - BR spread and the styrene - butadiene - BR spread [3]. Industry Chain Costs and Profits - **Butadiene**: The cost of carbon - four extraction is 7086.46 yuan/ton, down 1.19%, and the profit is 2313.54 yuan/ton, up 3.83%. The cost and profit of oxidative dehydrogenation remain unchanged [3]. - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: The cost is 12182 yuan/ton, with a profit of - 682 yuan/ton. The production rate has decreased by 5.93% [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking of non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 11, 2025 [1][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78,540 (domestic) and 9,639 (LME) with a ratio of 8.15; March price is 78,470 (domestic) and 9,709 (LME) with a ratio of 8.08. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.17 with a profit of - 15.62 [1]. - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22,480 (domestic) and 2,815 (LME) with a ratio of 7.99; March price is 22,520 (domestic) and 2,815 (LME) with a ratio of 5.99. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.66 with a profit of - 1,883.64 [1]. - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20,650 (domestic) and 2,611 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91; March price is 20,650 (domestic) and 2,614 (LME) with a ratio of 7.91. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.49 with a profit of - 1,513.68 [1]. - **Nickel**: Spot price is 119,850 (domestic) and 14,946 (LME) with a ratio of 8.02. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.25 with a profit of - 1,763.36 [1]. - **Lead**: Spot price is 16,700 (domestic) and 1,967 (LME) with a ratio of 8.50; March price is 16,850 (domestic) and 1,999 (LME) with a ratio of 11.26. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.85 with a profit of - 692.53 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 40, 20, 0, - 40 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 494, 887, 1288, 1689 [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 35, - 30, - 25, - 55 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 216, 338, 459, 581 [4]. - **Aluminum**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 65, - 100, - 140, - 190 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 215, 331, 446, 562 [4]. - **Lead**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 20, 25, 50, 60 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 209, 314, 419, 525 [4]. - **Nickel**: Spreads for次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 470, - 310, - 130, 150 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: 5 - 1 spread is 710 with a theoretical spread of 5558 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 55 and - 15 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 155 and 596 [4]. - **Zinc**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 70 and 35 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 101 and 232 (also 114 and 228 mentioned) [4][5]. - **Lead**: Spreads for当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 125 and 145 respectively, while theoretical spreads are 117 and 228 [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - Ratios for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.48, 3.80, 4.66, 0.92, 1.23, 0.75 in Shanghai (triple - continuous) and 3.45, 3.74, 4.86, 0.92, 1.30, 0.71 in London (triple - continuous) [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is short - term strong, while the fundamentals of styrene remain weak. In the second half of the year, with limited domestic demand growth, the downstream hard - rubber segment has limited incremental demand. However, in the short term, the structure of pure benzene has strengthened rapidly, and during the interval between the commissioning of downstream styrene plants and the slow release of new pure benzene plant production, pure benzene has strengthened periodically. Attention should be paid to the position of compressing styrene profits [3]. - According to the crude oil valuation of $65, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton. With Brent crude oil rising to $67 and $70, the reasonable valuation of BZ2603 is 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton. The reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Pure benzene domestic production**: In July, the planned maintenance loss was about 100,000 tons (Fuhai, Fuhai Chuang, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical), and in August, it dropped to 40,000 tons. Pay attention to the commissioning of CNOOC Daxie on July 18 and the new plants such as Yulong Petrochemical (reforming + disproportionation), Jilin Petrochemical, Jingbo, and Hunan Petrochemical in August [3]. - **Pure benzene imports**: The US has imposed continuous tariffs on overseas, and the downstream plants in the US have restarted, leading to a stable rebound in the US pure benzene price. The refinery's operating rate has increased during the peak summer gasoline season, but the yield has been decreasing since July due to poor pure benzene economics. The profit of the STDP unit is negative. The profit of US styrene has been squeezed from a high level, but the operating rate has recovered from 50% in June to nearly 65% - 70% in July. The cracking profit in the European market is poor, and the load is expected to be reduced. The spot volume of pure benzene in Europe is limited, and factories are actively destocking and increasing contract volumes. About 30,000 tons of pure benzene were shipped from Europe to the US from May to June, and Europe imported more than 100,000 tons of styrene in June. The US - to - Europe EB window is currently closed from July to August. European downstream plants are planning a 2 - 3 - week seasonal maintenance in August. Pay attention to the opening of the pure benzene Europe/South Korea - to - US and styrene US - to - Europe windows [3]. - **Styrene**: Recently, there has been a significant increase in supply. Liaoning Baolai's 350,000 - ton plant has restarted, and new plants such as Jingbo Petrochemical's 680,000 - ton (August) and Jilin Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton (September) are about to be commissioned [3]. - **Caprolactam**: Hengyi's 300,000 - ton new plant in Qinzhou, Guangxi is planned to be commissioned from August to September [3]. 3.2 Demand - **Phenol**: The maintenance of Yangzhou Shiyou and Jiangsu Yangnong is about to end. New plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton will be commissioned from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to be commissioned in October [3]. - **Aniline**: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted. Wanhua Chemical's (Fujian) new plant has been commissioned and is currently operating at a low load. Yantai Wanhua plans a rotation maintenance from August to September [3]. - **Styrene downstream 3S hard rubber**: EPS and PS have clearly entered the summer off - season, with continuous inventory accumulation and reduced operating rates. EPS has significantly reduced its load. The overall demand for ABS remains medium - to - high and shows resilience [3]. 3.3 Futures Contract - **Pure benzene futures contract rules**: The trading unit is 30 tons/hand, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the daily price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, etc. The initial trading margin standard is 8%, and the daily price limit is ±7%; on the listing day, it is ±14% of the listing benchmark price. The listing benchmark prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 are all 5900 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Delivery standards**: The delivery quality standard of pure benzene futures follows the national standard 545, and the delivery systems include one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and futures - to - cash delivery. The delivery is mainly through factory warehouses, with warehouse delivery as an auxiliary. The delivery qualifications are for dangerous chemicals, and group - based delivery is adopted [10]. 3.4 Industry Trends - **2025 production and demand trends**: In the first half of 2025, the price of pure benzene continued to decline. In the second half of the year, domestic production supply will continue to increase, and the inventory will gradually decrease. From January to May 2025, the total production of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. It is expected that the apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 will be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [35]. - **Investment and commissioning**: In the second half of 2025, the commissioning of pure benzene downstream plants will gradually be implemented. From 2026 to 2027, the commissioning of styrene plants will still be relatively large [31][32]. 3.5 Product Structure and Profit - **Product structure change**: From the end of 2022 to May 2025, the proportion of styrene, caprolactam, adipic acid, aniline, and phenol in the downstream of pure benzene has changed. The proportion of styrene has decreased, while the proportion of caprolactam has increased [63]. - **Profit situation**: The profit of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain shows a seesaw effect. The profit of downstream products such as caprolactam, aniline, and phenol also fluctuates. The processing fee of styrene is relatively high in the near - term [36][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The shipping company's prices are adjusted frequently. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's WEEK34 prices will be revised again. The freight rate has entered a downward cycle, and the prices of different alliances are following the decline. There are different characteristics and risks for different contract months, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [1][4][5]. - The 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries, and the monthly and weekly average capacities of China - European base ports in August and September vary, with additional overtime ships added by Maersk and OA Alliance [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping companies on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route show price fluctuations. For example, Maersk's WEEK32 - 34 quotes for Shanghai - Rotterdam decreased from 1846/3102 to 1590/2660, and different shipping companies' quotes for different time periods also have differences [1]. 2. Geopolitical Situation - Russian President Putin had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, discussing the Middle East situation, and Russia reiterated its stance on resolving regional issues through peaceful means [2]. 3. Shipping Capacity - The monthly average weekly capacity of China - European base ports in August is 347,300 TEU, and in September is 297,100 TEU. There are 4 empty sailings in August (all from the OA Alliance) and 2 TBNs in September. Maersk added 2 overtime ships in August, and the OA Alliance added 3 overtime ships [3]. 4. Contract Analysis - **August Contract**: The top of the freight rate has appeared, and the continuous downward revision of the freight rate brings uncertainty to the estimated delivery settlement price. The delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of SCFIS on 8/11, 8/18, and 8/25 [4]. - **October Contract**: It is mainly for short - allocation in the off - season, and the subsequent focus is on the downward slope of the freight rate. In normal years, October prices are 20% - 30% lower than August prices. It is relatively safe to short - allocate, but attention should be paid to the price at which shipping companies try to stabilize the price during the downward cycle [5]. - **December Contract**: The off - peak and peak season rules still exist, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will resume navigation. In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays, the shipping volume is usually high, and shipping companies will adjust the supply to keep the freight rate at a high level [6]. 5. Futures and Spot Prices - As of August 6, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 78,020 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 63,874 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided. On August 1, the SCFI prices for different routes are also given [7]. 6. Strategy - **Single - side**: The main contract fluctuates weakly. - **Arbitrage**: Go long on the December contract and short on the October contract, and short the October contract on rallies [8].