Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that the global oil market supply surplus may expand in the first half of the year and could peak mid-year, putting pressure on oil prices [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The balance of the global oil market is expected to worsen before improving, leading to a downward trend in future oil prices [1] - Brent crude oil price forecasts have been revised downwards, with expected averages of $57.50 per barrel for Q1, $55 for Q2, and $57.50 for Q3, lower than previous estimates of $60 per barrel [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - While some countries face geopolitical risks, these will only have a sustained impact on prices if they result in actual production losses, which historically occur infrequently [1] - The forecast for Q4 2026 and the first half of 2027 remains at $60 per barrel [1]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley indicates that the global oil market supply surplus may expand in the first half of the year and could peak mid-year, putting pressure on oil prices [1][2] - The firm has revised down its forecasts for the first three quarters of 2026, suggesting that the balance in the global oil market will worsen before improving, leading to a downward trend in future oil prices [1][2] - Analysts note that while geopolitical risks exist in some countries, these risks will only have a sustained impact on prices if they result in actual production losses, which historical data shows is rare [1][2] Group 2 - The expected average price for Brent crude oil is projected to be $57.50 per barrel for the current quarter, $55 for the second quarter, and $57.50 for the third quarter, all lower than previous forecasts of $60 per barrel [1][2] - The expectations for the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first half of 2027 remain at $60 per barrel [1][2]