日期 2025 年 11 月 6 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1： | | 行 ...

该行分析师Martijn Rats和Charlotte Firkins在研报中表示，"即使OPEC的声明并未改变我们对产量前景的预测机制，但它确实发出了一个重要信号，有了 OPEC的参与，市场波动性将降低。" 在OPEC+宣布暂停增产后，摩根士丹利迅速调整了油价预测，却并非基于产量的实际变动，而是基于OPEC+释放出的一个强有力"信号"。 11月2日，据报道，OPEC+宣布计划在2026年第一季度暂停产量增长，这是该组织自去年4月开始恢复供应以来首次暂停增产。对此，摩根士丹利今天（11 月3日）随即将2026年上半年布伦特原油价格预期从每桶57.50美元上调至60美元。 大摩称，该组织重新回到了主动管理市场的轨道上，绝非"自动驾驶"模式。这一信号为油价提供了下行保护，降低了市场在预期供应过剩期间的波动性和崩 盘风险。同时，在大摩看来，OPEC+的"口头干预"和姿态比其微小的产量配额调整本身重要得多。 除了OPEC暂停增长释放的信号作用外，大摩认为美国和欧盟对俄罗斯实施新制裁，也给布伦特油价提供额外支撑。从中长期来看，大摩预计，到2027年下 半年市场将逐步恢复平衡，届时布伦特油价有望回升至65美元/桶。 展望 ...

智通财经APP获悉，周五，埃克森美孚(XOM.US)公布了利润超预期的第三季度业绩。这一成绩主要得 益于圭亚那和二叠纪盆地油气产量的提升，抵消了油价下跌带来的影响。 财报显示，该公司7-9月季度调整后利润为81亿美元，合每股1.88美元，超过分析师普遍预期的每股1.82 美元，实现了连续六个季度的利润超预期。营收为853亿美元，略低于预期的877亿美元。 核心区域产量增长 同时间公布业绩的还有其竞争对手雪佛龙(CVX.US)。该公司也公布了超预期的三季度利润，同样得益 于新建油田项目及收购推动的原油产量增长，不过，该公司着力优化运营，增强现金流以抵御市场低 迷，此举似乎也更受市场欢迎。周五盘前，雪佛龙股价一度上涨1.4%。 面对全球石油市场普遍预期将出现严重供应过剩的局面，这两家北美大型油企显然正采取不同发展策 略。埃克森美孚在油价低迷之际仍大力推进多个扩张项目。 这一形势的形成也与欧佩克+试图通过向全球市场释放更多原油以重夺市场份额的努力相关。布伦特原 油正经历五年来最剧烈的年度下跌。 作为美国最大的石油生产商，埃克森美孚一直强调其拥有丰富资产组合与先进技术，据称能够提高石油 采收率，使其即使在原油价格低迷 ...

钛媒体App 10月21日消息，高盛援引高频卫星数据以及国际能源署和美国的官方库存数据称，全球石油 市场开始显现长久以来预期的供应过剩现象。Yulia Grigsby等分析师在一份报告中指出，经合组织的库 存增加，年初至今其可见商业库存增加了34万桶/日，占总库存的四分之一，预计到2025年底，这一比 例将升至三分之一。（广角观察） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (10.13-10.17) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油继续走低，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶57.25美元，周跌1.02%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶61.16美 元，周跌1.50%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶437.7元，周跌5.24%。国际能源署（IEA）在最新月报中表示，全球原油市场正面临比预期更大的供 应过剩，大量原油运往主要储存枢纽后，全球库存将很快上升。此外，OPEC报告数据显示，9月份OPEC原油总产量增加52.4万桶/日，达到2844 万桶/日。地缘局势方面，美国总统特朗普宣布，以色列与哈马斯已就加沙停火及人员释放达 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil price is gradually entering a pressured phase from a supply - demand perspective. Short - term Middle East tensions are easing, but there are still potential shocks in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela. OPEC+ plans to increase production, and oil demand may enter a seasonal weakening stage [2]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25BP in October and at least 25BP in December. The Fed's balance - sheet reduction may end in the next few months. There are uncertainties in the US economy due to government shutdown and potential large - scale layoffs [2]. - From a technical analysis, the US oil has been in a slow - slope downward oscillation since October 2023. The trading strategy is to sell on rallies considering supply - demand, while also being alert to potential geopolitical conflicts [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Data - **Crude Oil Futures**: On October 14, Sc was at 449.60 yuan/barrel, down 1.19% from the previous day and 8.73% from the previous week. WTI was at 58.59 dollars/barrel, down 1.63% and 7.26% respectively. Brent was at 62.28 dollars/barrel, down 1.75% and 6.72% respectively [2]. - **Internal - External Spreads**: Sc - WTI was at 4.72 dollars/barrel, up 4.36% from the previous day and down 22.87% from the previous week. Sc - Brent was at 1.03 dollars/barrel, up 48.97% and down 59.37% respectively [2]. - **Sc Month - Spreads**: Sc_C1 - C2 was at - 1.00 yuan/barrel, up 23.08% from the previous day and down 78.26% from the previous week. Sc_C1 - C6 was at - 2.40 yuan/barrel, down 9.09% and 45.45% respectively [2]. - **Crude Oil Spot**: OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 64.30 dollars/barrel, down 1.85% from the previous day and 2.34% from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 71.18 dollars/barrel, up 2.39% and down 0.14% respectively [2]. - **Product Spreads**: Diesel (East China)/Sc was at 14.530087, up 1.16% from the previous day and 8.04% from the previous week. Gasoline (East China)/Sc was at 16.759139, up 1.06% and 7.91% respectively [2]. - **Sc Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts were 540.10 million barrels, unchanged from the previous day and week [2]. - **EIA US Data**: Strategic petroleum reserves were 406.99 million barrels, up 0.07% from the previous week. Commercial crude oil was 420.26 million barrels, up 0.89% [2]. - **CFTC Positions**: Non - commercial net positions were 10.30 million contracts, up 4.30% from the previous week. Commercial net positions were - 11.86 million contracts, up 3.36% [2]. 3.2. Industry News - **Geopolitical News**: The negotiation of the second - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza faces difficulties as Hamas and Israel have different stances. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the US attitude towards selling "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine is worth noting [2][3]. - **Supply - Demand News**: Western Oil executives expect US oil supply to peak between 2027 - 2030. The supply - surplus in the oil market is becoming more obvious, and the IEA predicts a record daily surplus of 4 million barrels in 2026 [2][4]. - **Interest Rate News**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25BP in October and at least 25BP in December. Fed officials, including Powell, Collins, etc., have made statements related to interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction [2][5][6][7][8]. 3.3. Operation Suggestions - Maintain a short - selling mindset but be alert to potential geopolitical conflicts. Consider using wide - straddle positions, and for those with market - trend expectations, use single - side medium - out - of - the - money option strategies [2].

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to experience a weekly decline of approximately 7% to 8% due to potential supply increases from OPEC+ [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Brent crude futures have decreased by 8.1% this week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is projected to decline by 7.5% [3] - A slight recovery in oil prices on Friday is attributed to positive risk sentiment [3] Group 2: OPEC+ Supply Changes - Eight OPEC+ member countries may agree to increase daily production by 274,000 to 411,000 barrels in November, which is two to three times the increase from October [4] - Analysts suggest that the anticipated increase in OPEC+ supply, combined with reduced crude processing at global refineries due to maintenance and seasonal demand declines, will exert pressure on market sentiment [4] Group 3: Market Outlook - Demand indicators in the Atlantic Basin have declined as summer demand ends, leading to expectations of oversupply in the market starting in October [4] - Analysts from JPMorgan believe that September marks a turning point, predicting significant oversupply in the oil market from the fourth quarter into the following year [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is facing pressure as OPEC+ is likely to increase production, and the US oil demand may enter a seasonally weak phase in September. Geopolitical issues such as the Iran nuclear problem and the Russia-Ukraine situation remain uncertain, and the implementation of the US "Big and Beautiful" Act may trigger additional information. The short - term oil price may fluctuate, and the trading range is [63, 65]. Traders can follow up after the range is broken, and those betting on event - driven opportunities can choose to ambush option positions [2]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Data - On August 29, the price of Sc crude oil futures was 485.20 yuan/barrel, up 3.50 yuan (0.73%) from the previous day and down 8.40 yuan (-1.70%) from the previous week. WTI was at 64.01 dollars/barrel, down 0.31 dollars (-0.48%) from the previous day and up 0.24 dollars (0.38%) from the previous week. Brent was at 67.46 dollars/barrel, down 0.19 dollars (-0.28%) from the previous day and down 0.33 dollars (-0.49%) from the previous week [2]. - The Sc - WTI spread was 4.30 dollars/barrel, up 0.83 dollars (24.08%) from the previous day and down 1.14 dollars (-20.95%) from the previous week. The Sc - Brent spread was 0.85 dollars/barrel, up 0.71 dollars (529.37%) from the previous day and down 0.57 dollars (-40.12%) from the previous week [2]. - The Brent - WTI spread was 3.45 dollars/barrel, up 3.32 dollars (2457.01%) from the previous day and up 2.03 dollars (143.26%) from the previous week. The Sc_C1 - C2 spread was - 8.20 yuan/barrel, up 0.50 yuan (5.75%) from the previous day and down 1.60 yuan (24.24%) from the previous week [2]. - The Sc_C1 - C6 spread was - 4.80 yuan/barrel, up 3.50 yuan (42.17%) from the previous day and down 5.00 yuan (-2500.00%) from the previous week. The Sc_C1 - C13 spread was 0.90 yuan/barrel, up 3.10 yuan (140.91%) from the previous day and down 5.60 yuan (-86.15%) from the previous week [2]. - OPEC's basket of crude oil was at 70.58 dollars/barrel, up 0.97 dollars (1.39%) from the previous day and up 0.60 dollars (0.86%) from the previous week. Brent DTD was at 71.18 dollars/barrel, up 1.66 dollars (2.39%) from the previous day and down 0.10 dollars (-0.14%) from the previous week [2]. - Oman crude oil was at 71.22 dollars/barrel, up 0.71 dollars (1.01%) from the previous day and up 0.47 dollars (0.66%) from the previous week. Dubai crude oil was at 71.15 dollars/barrel, up 0.74 dollars (1.05%) from the previous day and up 0.40 dollars (0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - ESPO crude oil was at 65.06 dollars/barrel, up 0.92 dollars (1.43%) from the previous day and up 0.18 dollars (0.28%) from the previous week. The OPEC basket of crude oil's premium was 3.12 dollars/barrel, up 1.25 dollars (66.84%) from the previous day and up 0.16 dollars (5.41%) from the previous week [2]. - The Brent DTD premium was 3.72 dollars/barrel, up 0.86 dollars (30.07%) from the previous day and down 3.86 dollars (-2757.14%) from the previous week. The Oman premium was 3.76 dollars/barrel, up 4.66 dollars (517.78%) from the previous day and down 5.77 dollars (-287.06%) from the previous week [2]. - The Dubai premium was 3.69 dollars/barrel, up 4.91 dollars (402.46%) from the previous day and up 0.60 dollars (19.42%) from the previous week. The ESPO premium was - 2.40 dollars/barrel, down 0.21 dollars (-9.59%) from the previous day and down 16.01 dollars (-117.63%) from the previous week [2]. - Diesel in East China was at 6711.18 yuan/ton, down 4.73 yuan (-0.07%) from the previous day and down 8.45 yuan (-0.13%) from the previous week. Gasoline in East China was at 7773.36 yuan/ton, down 0.18 yuan (-0.00%) from the previous day and down 12.09 yuan (-0.16%) from the previous week [2]. - The ratio of diesel in East China to Sc was 13.831784, down 0.11 (-0.79%) from the previous day and up 0.22 (1.60%) from the previous week. The ratio of gasoline in East China to Sc was 16.020947, down 0.12 (-0.72%) from the previous day and up 0.25 (1.57%) from the previous week [2]. - The difference between diesel and gasoline in East China was - 1062.18 yuan/ton, down 4.55 yuan (0.43%) from the previous day and up 3.64 yuan (-0.34%) from the previous week. The total Sc warehouse receipts were 572.10 million barrels, up 95.40 million barrels (20.01%) from the previous week [2]. - The US strategic petroleum reserve was 404.20 million barrels, up 0.78 million barrels (0.19%) from the previous week. Commercial crude oil was 418.29 million barrels, down 2.39 million barrels (-0.57%) from the previous week [2]. - Cushing crude oil in the US was 22.63 million barrels, down 0.84 million barrels (-3.57%) from the previous week. Gasoline was 222.33 million barrels, down 1.24 million barrels (-0.55%) from the previous week. Distillate oil was 114.24 million barrels, down 1.79 million barrels (-1.54%) from the previous week [2]. - The non - commercial net position was 10.95 million contracts, down 1.07 million contracts (-8.93%) from the previous week. The commercial net position was - 13.09 million contracts, up 0.97 million contracts (-6.89%) from the previous week. The non - reported net position was 2.14 million contracts, up 0.11 million contracts (5.18%) from the previous week [2] Macro and Geopolitical Factors - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is close to 90%. Sino - US tariffs are postponed, and there may be significant differences between the two countries. The US may sanction China due to the Russian oil issue. The "Big and Beautiful" Act signed by Trump has come into effect, which may have a progressive and spill - over impact on the market [2]. - The E3 group may restart UN sanctions on Iran, and the situation around Iran may heat up. The Russia - Ukraine issue is progressing slowly, but there is an expectation of reaching an agreement. Pay attention to Trump's attitude and Putin's participation in the SCO Summit and the September 3 parade, which may bring new information [2]. Supply and Demand - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, ending the first - stage复产 work one year ahead of schedule. It may evaluate the withdrawal of the second - batch 1.66 million barrels per day production cut in December (not confirmed, and the September OPEC+ meeting is likely to suspend production increase). Saudi Arabia may lower the crude oil price for Asian buyers in October to cope with sufficient supply and weak demand. India may continue to buy Russian oil [2]. Industry News - Affected by the US Labor Day holiday, US stocks will be closed on September 1. CME's precious metals and US oil contract trading will end at 02:30 on September 2, and stock index futures contract trading will end at 01:00 on September 2. ICE's Brent crude oil futures contract trading will end at 01:30 on September 2 [3]. - The CEO of Rosneft expects the global oil market supply surplus to be 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter and will drop to 2.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [4]. - China has become the world's first country to achieve large - scale thermal recovery development of offshore heavy oil, with a cumulative production of over 5 million tons. The second - phase project of the Luda 5 - 2 North Oilfield has contributed over 100,000 tons of thermal recovery production, and the newly put - into - operation Kenli 10 - 2 Oilfield project has added over 14 million tons of heavy oil reserves [4]. - Hedge funds have reduced their bullish positions on US crude oil to the lowest level in about 18 years due to concerns about supply surplus. As of the week ending August 26, fund managers reduced their net long bets on WTI crude oil by 5,461 contracts to 24,225 contracts, the lowest since January 2007 [4]. - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 29 was 412, up from 411 in the previous week. The total number of natural gas rigs was 119, down from 122 in the previous week [6]. - Iran's UN envoy said Iran is committed to diplomacy but will not negotiate under threat or coercion. It supports a short - term, unconditional technical extension of the nuclear agreement resolution [6]. - German Chancellor Merz and French President Macron called for secondary sanctions against Russia. They will promote sanctions against "third - country companies supporting the Russian war" [6]. - An executive of India's ONGC said that as long as the price is right, ONGC's refineries will continue to purchase Russian oil, and the government has not issued any advice on buying Russian oil [7]. - A Reuters survey shows that due to the increase in production of major oil - producing countries and the suppression of demand growth by US tariff threats, it is difficult for oil prices to rise significantly this year. The average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 is expected to be $67.65 per barrel, and the average price of US crude oil is expected to be $64.65 per barrel [7]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 12.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 87.4%. In October, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 5.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 48.6% [7]. - European Central Bank Governing Council member Rehn refuted the view that interest rates cannot be cut again in the next few months. He said inflation risks are currently "tilted to the downside", and the US trade agreement may help reduce uncertainty, but a 15% tariff on most European exports by the US may slow down the eurozone's economic growth [8]. - In addition to Cook, who is in a lawsuit with Trump, the Fed governors include Powell, Jefferson, and Barr appointed by the Biden administration, who are on the same side as Powell. Waller and Bowman, appointed by Trump in his first term, voted in favor of a rate cut in July. Trump has nominated Stephen Milan to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's resignation, and the Senate Banking Committee will hold a confirmation hearing for Milan next Thursday [9]. - The Fed has finalized the new capital levels of the largest US banks after the June stress test. Morgan Stanley is seeking a re - evaluation of its upcoming capital level, and the Fed will announce the decision by the end of September [10]

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record oversupply in the global oil market next year due to slowing demand growth and surging supply, which will exert continuous pressure on oil prices and pose significant challenges for oil-producing countries [1] - Global oil inventories reached a 46-month high in June, driven by increased production from OPEC+ and rising output from the Americas [1][5] - The IEA warns that the market needs to make adjustments to restore balance, as demand growth has slowed to less than half of 2023 levels for the next two years [1][4] Group 2 - Global oil consumption is expected to grow by only 680,000 barrels per day this year, marking the weakest increase since 2019, with disappointing demand from countries like India and Brazil [4] - The IEA has raised its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth by 100,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day by 2026, primarily driven by countries in the Americas [5] - OPEC+ is facing pressure to regain market share, with Saudi Arabia pushing for a return to previously suspended production levels, although future actions remain uncertain [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The global oil market is expected to face oversupply and rising inventories until 2026, with only modest demand growth, exacerbated by the U.S. government's preference for low oil prices, leading to downward pressure on oil prices [3][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Structural oversupply in the oil market is projected to persist until 2026, with OPEC+ gradually exiting previous production cuts and non-OPEC+ countries maintaining stable output [4]. - The average daily oversupply in the market is expected to exceed 1 million barrels by Q4 2025, with global inventories continuing to rise unless OPEC adjusts its strategy [4][10]. - Geopolitical risks, such as supply disruptions from Libya or Iran, will have limited impact due to ample inventories and idle capacity providing a buffer [4]. Group 2: U.S. Energy Policy Impact - The U.S. government's energy policy prioritizes lowering consumer costs over upstream industry profits, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the oil market [6]. - The U.S. has urged OPEC+ to increase production and has shown reluctance to intervene in the oil market unless a price collapse is imminent [6]. - The slow action of the Trump administration in replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve reflects a lack of urgency regarding oil price issues [6]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - A weak global macroeconomic environment continues to suppress oil demand, with the IMF lowering the 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.8%, below historical trends [8]. - U.S. GDP contracted by 0.5% in Q1 2025, with a projected annual growth rate of only 1.0%, significantly lower than the 2.5% growth in 2024 [8]. - Economic weakness may adversely affect oil-dependent sectors such as freight and automotive, although demand in emerging markets is still growing [8]. Group 4: Inventory Projections - Global oil and refined product inventories are expected to continue rising, indicating oversupply from Q4 2025 to 2026 [10]. - Following a reduction in inventories during 2021-2022, the anticipated supply growth will outpace demand, leading to increased inventories [10]. - OECD commercial inventories are currently near the five-year average but are expected to rise further, reflecting ample supply and weak consumption [10].