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价值投资之利用市场一致预期
雪球· 2025-03-18 08:17
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of stock prices in relation to company earnings and market expectations, emphasizing the importance of not buying stocks at high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, regardless of the company's perceived greatness [2][3]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Reaction - Yihai International's profit grew from 125 million to 790 million from 2015 to 2019, leading to a market capitalization surge to 120 billion, with a P/E ratio of 150 [2]. - The COVID-19 pandemic caused a significant drop in Yihai's profits and market capitalization, with the stock price falling from 148 to 15, reflecting a P/E ratio decline to 17 [2]. - Similar patterns were observed with Pop Mart, where profits halved in 2022, leading to a stock price drop from 107 to 10, despite a recovery in 2023 [3]. - China Feihe's stock price fell from 25.7 to 6 due to declining birth rates and market pessimism, despite only a slight profit decrease [4]. Group 2: Market Predictions and Investment Strategy - The market often predicts company performance 1-2 years in advance, as seen with China Feihe and Luzhou Laojiao, where stock prices adjusted before earnings reports were released [7][8]. - The article suggests that smart investors should buy stocks during market lows when company fundamentals indicate potential recovery, as demonstrated by the investment in China Feihe at its lowest point [5][6]. - The strategy involves identifying companies with strong long-term growth potential while avoiding high P/E ratios during market euphoria [8].