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康农种业(920403):Q3合同负债创新高,2025-2026年销售季自Q4开局
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first rating given [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 0.41 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a decrease of 21.8% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.06 billion yuan, down 161.7% year-on-year. The negative revenue in Q3 is attributed to adjustments related to sales returns from the previous year [2][3]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company's contract liabilities reached 3.51 billion yuan, an increase of 64.8%, primarily due to positive market feedback for its core corn varieties and increased advance payments for the 2025-2026 sales season [2][3]. - The report anticipates a clear revenue momentum for the company in the 2025-2026 period, driven by strong performance in various regional markets and the introduction of new corn seed varieties [8]. Financial Summary - The total revenue projections for the company are as follows: 445 million yuan for 2025, 559 million yuan for 2026, and 683 million yuan for 2027, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 32.2%, 25.6%, and 22.2% [4][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 96 million yuan for 2025, 123 million yuan for 2026, and 150 million yuan for 2027, with growth rates of 16.4%, 27.9%, and 22.2% respectively [4][10]. - The report highlights an expected improvement in gross margin from 28.5% in 2025 to 38.5% in 2026 and 2027, driven by the company's self-breeding seed production model [8][10].