Core Viewpoint - Despite a conservative outlook for the real estate market in 2025, Shanghai has shown resilience, achieving a "tail-end" market performance with second-hand housing transactions reaching a new high of 22,000 units in two consecutive months, while new homes saw 4,088 units launched in December with 2,352 subscriptions [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The rapid cooling of the points system for new homes in Shanghai has exceeded expectations, with only 8% of new projects triggering the points system in 2023, down from 36% in 2022 and 22% in 2023 [2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics have shifted significantly, with an oversupply of new homes leading to a price war and a more cautious buyer sentiment [3][4] - The disappearance of the price gap between new and second-hand homes has diminished the incentive for buyers to rush into the market [3][4] Group 2: Price Dynamics - High-scoring red plate properties have seen significant price increases, with some core area properties experiencing over 50% price appreciation since their launch [5][6] - Conversely, properties in outer districts have faced price declines of around 5%, with some experiencing drops of over 25% due to market cooling [7][8] - The auction market has revealed the true value of properties, with some auctioned homes selling at prices significantly lower than surrounding new developments, indicating a return to realistic pricing [9][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - A total of 33,561 units of previously restricted new homes are expected to be released in 2024, which could significantly impact the second-hand market, particularly in specific areas [11] - The market is likely to see increased competition between new homes and second-hand properties, with new developments offering better layouts and amenities [11][12] - The focus for buyers will shift from high points to the actual quality of the property, emphasizing the importance of practical living needs over speculative investment [13]