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抗体靶向偶联药物(ATTC)
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中金:维持和黄医药跑赢行业评级 目标价30港元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 03:24
Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded the revenue forecast for Hutchison China MediTech (00013) for 2025 by 12.4% to $594 million, and the net profit forecast for 2026 by 65% to $35 million, while maintaining the 2025 net profit forecast at $366 million due to the timing of equity sale gains. The firm maintains an "outperform" rating, citing progress in the company's innovation pipeline and a target price of HKD 30, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% from the current stock price [1]. Group 1 - The company's 1H25 performance was below expectations, with revenue of $278 million, down 9% year-on-year, primarily due to lower-than-expected domestic product sales. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $455 million, mainly due to gains from the sale of non-core business equity. The company has lowered its full-year guidance for comprehensive revenue from the oncology immunotherapy business from $350-450 million to $270-350 million [2]. - The overseas sales of furmonertinib were strong in 1H25, reaching $163 million, a 25% year-on-year increase. The drug has been approved for sale in over 30 countries and regions, expanding insurance reimbursement coverage and increasing market share. However, domestic sales of furmonertinib, savolitinib, and sugemalimab declined year-on-year due to sales structure adjustments and changes in the competitive landscape. The company expects sales trends to improve in the second half of the year due to new indications for savolitinib and successful overseas sales of furmonertinib [3]. Group 2 - The antibody-drug conjugate (ATTC) candidate HMPL-A251 is expected to enter clinical trials in the second half of 2025, having shown good proof of concept in preclinical models. The company plans to initiate Phase 1 clinical studies in China and the U.S. in 2H25, with two other candidates, HMPL-A580 and HMPL-A830, expected to start Phase 1 clinical studies in 2026. Attention is recommended for the clinical validation of this new generation technology platform [4]. - Other R&D progress includes the completion of savolitinib SAFFRON enrollment in 2H25, with data readout expected in 1H26, and SANOVO enrollment completion in 2H25. The company plans to resubmit the application for the marketing authorization of sugemalimab in China in 1H26, and data for sugemalimab in first-line pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is expected in 2H25 [5].