2025 年 08 月 23 日 和黄医药(00013.HK) ATTC 平台候选药物即将进入临床开 发，后续多个里程碑事件值得期待 事件：公司发布 2025 年中期业绩，报告期内公司实现营业收入 2.78 亿美元，实现归母净利润 4.55 亿美元。 呋喹替尼海外市场持续放量。海外市场上，由武田负责销售的 FRUZAQLA® (呋喹替尼的海外商品名) 市场销售额增长 25%至 1.628 亿美元，得益于覆盖范围扩大至超过 30 个国家。国内市场 上，爱优特® (呋喹替尼的中国商品名) 实现销售额 4,300 万美 元 (2024 年上半年: 6,100 万美元)，反映市场竞争加剧以及销售 团队结构优化，但近期已恢复增长。 后续多个里程碑事件值得期待，ATTC 平台候选药物即将进入临 床开发。 1）赛沃替尼：计划于 2025 年下半年完成 SAFFRON III 期研究的 患者招募，并于 2026 年上半年读出数据；计划于 2025 年下半年 完成 SANOVO 中国 III 期研究的患者招募； 2）索乐匹尼布：计划于 2026 年上半年重新提交基于 ESLIM-01 研 究的国家药监局新药上市申请，计划于 2 ...

机构：东方证券 研究员：伍云飞/傅肖依 国内销售收入短期承压，海外稳步放量。公司25 年上半年实现收入2.78 亿美元，肿瘤业务收入1.44 亿 美元，其中肿瘤产品收入0.99 亿美元，同比-29%，主要系呋喹替尼等产品竞争加剧导致国内销售收入 下滑；首付款、监管里程碑及研发服务收入为0.44 亿美元，较去年略有增长。公司下调全年肿瘤业务收 入指引至2.7-3.5 亿美元，主要系考虑到部分里程碑收入款项延迟确认，以及索乐匹尼布的上市时间推 迟。 新产品获批及新适应症拓展有望开启第二增长曲线。1）呋喹替尼：25 年上半年实现销售额2.06 亿美元 （海外1.63 亿美元/国内0.43 亿美元）。海外继续保持快速增长势头（同比+25%），主要得益于在日 本、美国、欧盟等主要市场的优异表现，我们认为未来随着呋喹替尼的市场份额进一步提升，海外有望 继续稳定放量。国内方面，子宫内膜癌、肾细胞癌等新增适应症获批有望贡献业绩增量。2）赛沃替 尼：用于二线治疗MET 扩增的EGFR 突变非小细胞肺癌已在国内获批，有望今年参与医保谈判并重启 高速增长；海外方面，多个适应症同步推进，如治疗奥希替尼耐药的非小细胞肺癌的三期临床 （ ...

和黄医药 00013.HK 公司研究 | 中报点评 ——和黄医药 2025 年中报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 考虑到部分产品竞争加剧，我们下调公司 2025-2027 年营业收入分别为 6.00、 7.06、7.97 亿美元（原预测值为 7.30、8.41、9.49 亿美元）。根据可比公司，我们 给予公司 2026 年 6.06 倍 PS，对应目标价为 38.32 港元（汇率约 7.81），维持买入 评级。 风险提示 ⚫ 创新药研发进度不及预期、产品竞争加剧或者销售不及预期、公司中长期盈利能力 下降的风险。 公司主要财务信息 海外稳步放量，储备管线注入新动能 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 838.00 | 630.20 | 600.43 | 705.84 | 796.91 | | 同比增长 (%) | 96.52% | -24.80% | -4.72% | 17.56% | 12.90% | | 归属母公司净利润(百万元) | 100.7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1] Core Insights - The upcoming World Conference on Lung Cancer (WCLC) is expected to showcase significant advancements in innovative drugs, generating new business development expectations [1] - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 3% this week and 25% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.7% and 18.2% respectively [4][9] - The report highlights the strong performance of the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in innovative drugs, research services, and CXO [10][11] Industry Trends - The WCLC will take place from September 6 to September 9, 2025, in Barcelona, featuring over 1,500 presentations, with a significant number from Chinese researchers [17][18] - Chinese innovation is prominently represented, with over 400 submissions, indicating a shift towards the commercialization of innovative drugs [18][19] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include a 69% increase for Sainuo Medical and a 94% increase for Paig Biological in the H-share market [4][9] - The report provides a detailed overview of stock performance, highlighting both top gainers and losers in the pharmaceutical sector [9][13] Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on specific sub-sectors, ranking them as follows: innovative drugs > research services > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies [10] - Specific stock recommendations include companies like Bory Pharmaceutical, Singlera Genomics, and Innovent Biologics based on various therapeutic angles [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Hutchison China MediTech Limited (HCM) reported strong revenue growth in its oncology and autoimmune business, with total revenue of $278 million for the first half of 2025, driven by significant sales of its key products [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 was $278 million, with oncology and autoimmune business contributing $144 million and other business generating $134 million [1]. - Specific product revenues included: $43.1 million from overseas sales of furmonertinib, $33.6 million from China sales of furmonertinib, $12.7 million from savolitinib, $9 million from savolitinib, $0.7 million from tepotinib, and $29.5 million from Takeda's upfront, milestone, and R&D service income [1]. - The company adjusted its full-year guidance for oncology business to $270-350 million [1]. Group 2: Product Development and Approvals - Savolitinib received approval for second-line treatment of MET amplified non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) in June 2025, with potential participation in this year's medical insurance negotiations [2]. - Ongoing clinical trials include a Phase 3 study for third-line treatment of MET aberrant NSCLC and a Phase 3 study for first-line treatment of EGFR mutation-positive NSCLC in China [2]. - The company is advancing its unique ATTC platform, which aims to overcome resistance and reduce toxicity in targeted therapies, with three potential pipelines (A251, A580, A830) expected to enter clinical trials in 2025 and 2026 [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Outlook - A DCF analysis suggests a reasonable equity value of HKD 28 billion, assuming a perpetual growth rate of 2% and a WACC of 9.43% [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to strong overseas sales momentum and a promising innovation pipeline [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The overseas sales of Furquatinin are strong, and the potential of the ATTC platform is promising [5] - The company has adjusted its full-year guidance for oncology business to USD 270-350 million based on strong sales performance [7] - The unique ATTC platform is expected to overcome resistance to targeted therapies and reduce toxicity, with several potential pipelines in development [7] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of USD 278 million, with oncology and autoimmune business contributing USD 144 million and other business USD 134 million [7] - The revenue from Furquatin overseas reached USD 43.1 million, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [7] - The company forecasts total revenue of USD 580 million, USD 713 million, and USD 901 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit for 2025 is USD 427 million, with a significant year-on-year growth of 1032.3% [6] - The estimated earnings per share for 2025 is USD 0.49, with a projected P/E ratio of 6.69 [6] - The company's fair equity value is estimated at HKD 28 billion, assuming a perpetual growth rate of 2% and a WACC of 9.43% [7]

Macro and Strategy - In July, new social financing in China was 1.16 trillion yuan, lower than the expected 1.41 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans decreasing by 500 billion yuan, indicating a rare negative growth [9][10] - The structure of social financing showed a dual characteristic of resilience and differentiation, with government financing contributing significantly to the increase [10][11] - The overall social financing growth rate rose to 9.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 3.893 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds and direct financing [10][11] Real Estate Industry - In the first half of 2025, new residential sales in China decreased by 4% year-on-year, with total sales area at 460 million square meters [18][19] - The sales of existing homes have increased, with the proportion of second-hand homes in total residential transactions rising to 46% in 2024, up from the lowest point in 2021 [19][20] - The competition landscape in the real estate sector is stabilizing, with major state-owned enterprises maintaining their positions in sales rankings [21][22] Food and Beverage Industry - The white liquor sector is showing signs of recovery in sales, with improved performance in August following a challenging second quarter [22][23] - Moutai's mid-year performance demonstrated resilience, with a revenue increase of 9.2% year-on-year, reflecting the industry's adjustment to market pressures [23][24] - The overall valuation of the white liquor sector is expected to enter a recovery phase, supported by positive policy expectations and improved consumer demand [24] Banking Industry - The cross-border payment landscape is evolving, with significant players like Ant International and Lianlian Digital shaping the competitive dynamics [25][26] Home Appliances and Light Industry - The home appliance sector is expected to see stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidy policies, despite facing challenges from tariffs [26][27] - The white goods segment is benefiting from strong domestic demand, while the black goods segment is experiencing price improvements due to cost reductions [27][28] Energy Sector - The domestic oil and gas production is on the rise, with the Guyana Yellowtail project being brought into production ahead of schedule, indicating strong operational performance [34][36]

Core Insights - The company's 1H25 performance was below expectations, with revenue of $278 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, primarily due to lower domestic product sales [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was $455 million, mainly driven by gains from the sale of non-core business equity [1] - The company has lowered its full-year revenue guidance for its oncology immunotherapy business from $350-450 million to $270-350 million [1] Revenue Trends - The overseas sales of Fuqunatin were robust, reaching $163 million in 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 25%, indicating steady growth [1] - Fuqunatin has been approved for sale in over 30 countries and regions, expanding its insurance reimbursement coverage and market share [1] - Domestic sales of Fuqunatin, Savolitinib, and Sovanotinib declined year-on-year due to sales structure adjustments and changes in the competitive landscape [1] Development Outlook - The company anticipates improved sales trends in the second half of the year, benefiting from the approval of new indications for Savolitinib and the successful overseas rollout of Fuqunatin [1] - The company plans to initiate Phase 1 clinical trials for its antibody-drug conjugate (ATTC) candidate HMPL-A251 in China and the U.S. in 2H25, with two other candidates expected to enter clinical trials in 2026 [2] - Other R&D progress includes the completion of patient enrollment for Savolitinib SAFFRON in 2H25 and the resubmission of the listing application for Sovanotinib in 1H26 [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 12.4% to $594 million, and the net profit forecast for 2026 has been cut by 65% to $35 million [2] - Despite the adjustments, the net profit forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at $366 million due to the timing of equity sale gains [2] - The company maintains an outperform rating, with a target price of HKD 30, representing a 24.7% upside from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing rapid growth in overseas sales while facing pressure in domestic sales, leading to adjustments in revenue guidance for its oncology business [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - The total sales of oncology products for the first half of 2025 reached $234 million, reflecting a 4% decline [1]. - Overseas sales of furmonertinib amounted to $163 million, showing a 25% increase due to accelerated market access [1]. - Domestic sales of furmonertinib were $43 million, down 29%, while sales of savolitinib and sugemalimab decreased by 41% and 50%, respectively [1]. Group 2: Revenue Guidance and Market Competition - The comprehensive revenue from the oncology immunotherapy business was $144 million, down 14.9%, attributed to competitive pressures in the domestic market [2]. - The revenue guidance for the oncology business has been adjusted to $270-350 million, down from the previous estimate of $350-450 million, due to delays in milestone revenues and product launches [2]. Group 3: Clinical Developments and Future Prospects - Savolitinib has significant potential for new indications, with successful global clinical trials progressing, and it is expected to participate in upcoming medical insurance negotiations in China [2]. - The ATTC platform is anticipated to produce its first clinical candidate in the second half of the year, with plans to present preclinical data at academic conferences [2]. Group 4: Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to $604 million, $718 million, and $829 million, down from previous estimates [3]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to $430 million, $68 million, and $108 million, reflecting an increase for 2025 but a decrease for 2026 and 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23]. Core Insights - The company has experienced rapid growth in overseas sales, particularly for its main product, furmonertinib, which saw overseas sales of $163 million (+25%). However, domestic sales are under pressure, with a decline in sales for other products [1][7]. - The company has adjusted its revenue guidance for its oncology business to $270-350 million, down from a previous estimate of $350-450 million, due to delays in milestone revenues and the expected postponement of the launch of another product in China [1][7]. - The ATTC platform is expected to produce its first clinical candidate in the second half of the year, with plans to present preclinical data at academic conferences [2][21]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to $604 million, $718 million, and $829 million, respectively, down from previous estimates [3][23]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to $43 million, $6.8 million, and $10.8 million, respectively, reflecting a significant increase in 2025 due to asset sales [3][23]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net income of $455 million in the first half of 2025, a substantial increase of 1649.8%, primarily driven by sales from core products and asset sales [11]. - Research and development expenses decreased to $72 million (-24.2%), while sales and administrative expenses also declined to $42 million (-28.0%), indicating effective cost control measures [11]. Product Development and Clinical Trials - Furmonertinib continues to expand in overseas markets, with recent approvals in over 30 countries and strong initial sales performance in Japan [17]. - The company is advancing its pipeline with several clinical trials, including the SACHI study for savolitinib, which is expected to read out data in 2025 [18][19]. - Other key products are also progressing in clinical trials, with positive results anticipated for various indications [19][21].