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低利率、高波动时代,银行理财为何成为资产配置的“优等生”?
21世纪经济报道· 2025-04-08 06:18
Core Viewpoint - The current investment and financial market is facing a complex situation characterized by low interest rates and high volatility, leading investors to prioritize both returns and safety [1][2]. Market Environment - Continuous counter-cyclical adjustments have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, with the LPR in 2024 driving down deposit rates and prompting funds to flow back into bank wealth management products [2]. - The global economic environment is increasingly complex, with heightened geopolitical risks contributing to market uncertainty and a surge in investor demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Investment Product Performance - The bond market's performance is a key factor influencing the returns of money market funds, bond funds, and bank wealth management products, with government bond yields serving as a benchmark for pricing [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, the bond market experienced a correction, impacting the performance of traditional investment products. The average net value of medium to long-term pure bond funds fell by 0.21%, with some funds seeing declines exceeding 1% [5]. Bank Wealth Management Products - Bank wealth management products demonstrated better performance compared to bond funds, with an annualized return of 2.11% as of March 31, 2025, outperforming money market funds and bond funds [6]. - The maximum drawdown for bank wealth management products was only 0.15%, indicating stronger stability amid market fluctuations [6]. Interest Rate Trends - As of March 2025, a notable "inversion" in deposit rates was observed, where longer-term deposits offered lower returns than shorter-term ones, reflecting banks' strategies to optimize deposit structures in a low-rate environment [7][8]. - The average annualized return for bank wealth management products typically ranges from 2.0% to 3.5%, making them more attractive for investors seeking stable returns compared to traditional fixed-term deposits [8]. Technological Innovations - The introduction of the "Cuckoo" system by WeBank aims to enhance investment decision-making for small and micro enterprises by providing accurate cash flow predictions and tailored wealth management products [10][11]. - This system has shown a prediction accuracy exceeding 95%, allowing banks to improve fund utilization efficiency by 10% and offering personalized investment recommendations to users [11]. Product Highlights - WeBank's "Stable Profit" product has gained significant traction, with over 343,000 users and a high percentage of users achieving positive returns over three months [14]. - In a volatile market, "Stable Profit" achieved an average annualized return of 2.77% over the past year, with a positive return rate of 96.76% during market fluctuations, outperforming both the broader bank wealth management market and bond funds [14].