■ 苏向杲 自2018年资管新规（《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》）发布后，银行理财开启"净值 化"转型之路，规模也出现较大幅度的回落。如今，银行理财规模重回历史高位，既折射出居民在低利 率环境下对稳健收益的迫切需求，也体现了银行理财行业的净值化转型成效。 近日，银行理财规模重回历史高位引发市场广泛关注。笔者从普益标准获悉，截至5月29日，银行理财 规模达31.35万亿元，创下2022年以来新高。 近年来，银行理财在支持实体经济发展、满足人民群众对财富保值增值的需求方面发挥了重要作用。截 至今年一季度末，银行理财支持实体经济资金规模约20万亿元，投资者数量达1.26亿。笔者认为，当 前，在银行理财规模不断攀升的情况下，银行等机构需要进行更深层次的思考。 其一，如何将规模优势转化为服务实体经济高质量发展的新动能。 当前，银行理财资金主要投向债券、现金及银行存款、同业存单等固收领域。截至今年一季度末，这三 大类资产合计占比超过80%，对股权资产的投资比例偏低。从资金需求侧来看，我国经济正处于新旧动 能转换的关键期，新兴产业普遍对股权类、非标准化债权等资金的需求较为旺盛。因此，如何创新金融 服务，如何加大 ...

Core Insights - The development of bank wealth management has lagged behind, with public fund scale surpassing bank wealth management for the first time by June 2023, indicating a shift in competitive advantages [2] - The bank wealth management industry is undergoing a reassessment of its service clientele, operational models, and positioning to regain competitiveness [2][4] - The industry is expected to transition towards professional asset management companies in 2024, enhancing risk preference, product structure, and investment research capabilities [2][4] Industry Challenges - The year 2023 has been challenging for the industry, with both scale and performance under pressure, leading to adjustments in product performance benchmarks and fee structures to attract investors [4][5] - Bank wealth management scale fluctuated significantly, increasing from 23.4 trillion yuan at the end of 2019 to 25.34 trillion yuan by mid-2023, but saw a notable decrease compared to 2022 due to declining product yields [4][5] - The low risk tolerance of clients and the contradiction with the net value of wealth management products have led to increased volatility in product scale, complicating investment strategies [5] Strategic Shifts - The investment environment for bank wealth management has undergone five key changes, including more rational market expectations, low client confidence recovery, and a shift towards stable asset structures [8] - The focus for 2024 will be on maintaining a balanced approach to asset allocation, emphasizing safety and supporting national strategies while managing risks effectively [11] - There is a need for bank wealth management companies to diversify their product offerings, including cash and short-term debt products, while also exploring higher volatility products to create a more comprehensive product system [9][10] Future Outlook - The bank wealth management sector is projected to achieve a 10% growth in scale in 2024, with total assets expected to reach between 31 trillion and 32 trillion yuan [13] - The performance benchmark for wealth management products is anticipated to stabilize and potentially rise, which could support growth in the sector [13] - The asset allocation strategy will continue to follow the "80-20 rule," with a focus on maintaining a balance between safe assets and higher-yielding investments [13]

编者按：《机警理财日报》作为南财集团、21世纪经济报道、南财理财通的金牌理财专栏，目前细分了 现金、纯固收、固收+期权、固收+权益、混合、权益、衍生品七大类，已实现对银行理财市场的每日 追踪。为了进一步反映银行理财行业发展现状，南财理财通课题组增设机警理财周报专题，力求及时准 确研判理财行业趋势、洞悉理财产品表现，以期为银行理财行业转型发展带来参考价值。 【市场回顾】 上周债市维持震荡，资金面整体均衡偏松。8月1日DR007加权均价为1.42%；10年期国债收益率收至 1.695%。股市方面，A股主要指数收跌，中证1000指数、创业板指数、上证指数周跌幅分别为0.54%、 0.74%和0.94%。板块方面，医药生物、通信、传媒板块周涨幅居前。 【破净情况】 破净产品数量处于低位。南财理财通数据显示，截至2025年8月3日，理财公司共有24,774只存续公募理 财产品，其中324只累计净值低于1，银行理财综合破净率为1.31%。权益类、混合类理财破净率分别为 40.48%和5.46%；固定收益类公募理财破净率为1.02%。 各期限人民币固定收益类理财破净率维持在较低水平。其中，1—2年期限和3年以上期限产品破净 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial industry is entering a new phase characterized by challenges and opportunities, with a focus on serving the real economy and promoting high-quality development through innovative financial products and services [1] Group 1: Bank Wealth Management Transformation - The transition to net value-based bank wealth management is reshaping market dynamics and investor behavior, breaking the expectation of "guaranteed returns" and increasing investor risk awareness [3][4] - Investors are more accepting of high-volatility products, creating better conditions for household wealth to enter the market [3][4] - The demand for innovative products is driven by the structural contradiction of abundant funds and a scarcity of quality assets, leading to a need for product innovation that balances stability and yield [4][5] Group 2: Personal Pension Wealth Management Market - The personal pension wealth management market is experiencing historic development opportunities due to aging demographics and increasing demand for retirement savings [10][11] - The government is supporting this market through policies that promote long-term investment in quality assets and improve the pension account system [10][11] - Financial institutions are responding by diversifying product offerings and enhancing service experiences to meet the evolving needs of consumers [10][11] Group 3: ESG Investment Trends - ESG investment in China is growing rapidly, driven by policy support and market expansion, with significant increases in ESG mutual funds and green bonds [13][14] - The integration of ESG factors into financial decision-making is becoming a competitive advantage for banks, as it can lower financing costs and enhance asset quality [14] - However, challenges remain, including data quality issues and the risk of "greenwashing" among companies [13][14] Group 4: Investment Strategies in Low-Interest Environment - Fixed-income funds need to adopt refined operational strategies to cope with declining yields, focusing on risk factor segmentation and dynamic asset allocation [15][16] - The market is facing complex risks, including interest rate sensitivity and liquidity issues, necessitating a comprehensive risk management framework [16][17] - Investors are advised to lower yield expectations and focus on matching holding periods with diversified asset allocations to navigate the low-interest environment [17]

Industry Focus - 17 listed banks have announced the cancellation of their supervisory boards, influenced by the revised Company Law and financial regulatory policies set to take effect in 2024 [1] Corporate Dynamics - Hangzhou Bank has completed the market-oriented conversion of 15 billion yuan in convertible bonds, marking significant progress in capital replenishment [4] - JiuTai Rural Commercial Bank is facing a pre-loss forecast of 1.7 billion to 1.9 billion yuan for 2024 and is set to delist following a voluntary conditional cash offer for its H-shares and domestic shares [5] - Chengdu Rural Commercial Bank plans to absorb and merge six village banks located in Sichuan Province [6] - Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank has obtained fund custody qualifications, becoming the first commercial bank to do so this year [7] - Shunde Rural Commercial Bank has withdrawn its IPO application after a prolonged lack of progress since its initial submission in 2019 [8] Financial Personnel - Zheshang Bank announced the resignation of Chairman Lu Jianqiang due to age, with Chen Haiqiang approved to take over as the new president [9][10]

Core Insights - The scale of bank wealth management has returned to a historical high, reaching 31.35 trillion yuan as of May 29, 2023, marking a new peak since 2022, reflecting the urgent demand for stable returns in a low-interest-rate environment and the effectiveness of the net value transformation in the industry [1][2] Group 1: Supporting the Real Economy - Bank wealth management has played a significant role in supporting the development of the real economy, with approximately 20 trillion yuan allocated to support the real economy and 126 million investors as of the end of Q1 2023 [1][2] - There is a need for banks to innovate financial services and increase investments in equity and non-standard debt assets to better serve the real economy, especially as new industries have a strong demand for such funding [2][3] Group 2: Meeting Diverse Wealth Management Needs - With market interest rates declining, residents are seeking stable wealth management products that can replace traditional deposits, leading to a strong demand for products with yield flexibility [3][4] - To enhance competitiveness, banks should increase investments in equity assets and innovate product offerings, which will require improved risk control, innovation capabilities, and equity investment skills [3][4] Group 3: Increasing Market Participation - As of the end of Q1 2023, bank wealth management funds invested over 800 billion yuan in equity assets, accounting for only 2.6% of total investments, indicating significant room for growth [4] - Banks should steadily increase their market participation to become a crucial stabilizing force in the market, which will also enhance returns for investors and promote balanced capital market financing [4]

Regulatory Policies and Asset Management Market Insights - On April 21, the China Interbank Market Dealers Association released the "Self-Regulatory Guidelines for Bond Valuation Business in the Interbank Bond Market (Trial)" which emphasizes the need to standardize product net value measurement and restrict the use of valuation rules to avoid net value requirements [2][6] - The central bank introduced a package of monetary policy measures on May 7, aimed at guiding commercial banks to lower deposit rates, which may create a "double-edged sword" effect in the bank wealth management market [2][10] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the "Action Plan for the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" on May 7, indicating that the public fund industry may face short-term pain but will optimize its long-term ecosystem [2] Market Performance and Trends - In April, the total outstanding scale of wealth management products significantly rebounded, increasing by 7.58% month-on-month to 31.09 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.05% [3] - The annualized yield of cash management products fell to 1.49%, down 10.25 basis points, while pure fixed-income products saw an annualized yield rise to 3.10%, up 48.82 basis points [3] - New issuance of wealth management products saw a decline in April compared to March, with fixed-income plus products, closed-end products, and 1-3 year products dominating the new issuance landscape [3] Product Performance and Standards - The compliance rate of wealth management products reached 74.75% in April, an increase of 7.05% compared to March [4] - The "Valuation Guidelines" aim to enhance the scientific, fair, and transparent nature of the valuation process, addressing issues such as market volatility and the disconnect between primary and secondary market prices [7] - The guidelines also clarify that users of valuation products bear the primary responsibility for understanding and evaluating these products, especially during periods of market volatility [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market experienced a significant seasonal rebound in April 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 7.58% to reach 31.09 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.05% year-on-year growth [4][19] - The issuance of fixed income plus (固收+) products dominated the new product offerings, indicating a shift in investor preference towards products that balance liquidity and yield [5][35] - Regulatory changes are expected to limit the operational space for banks to smooth returns through valuation techniques, impacting future product offerings [12][10] Regulatory Policies and Asset Management Market News - On April 21, the China Interbank Market Dealers Association released self-regulatory guidelines for bond valuation, emphasizing the need for standardized net asset value measurement [10][11] - On May 7, the central bank introduced a series of monetary policy measures aimed at stabilizing market expectations, which may have a dual effect on the banking wealth management market [13][14] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced an action plan for the high-quality development of public funds, indicating a shift towards long-term performance evaluation and transparency [15][16] Market Performance - The total market for wealth management products saw a significant recovery in April, with cash management products experiencing a decline in yield, while fixed income products saw an increase [22][26] - The annualized yield for cash management products fell to 1.49%, while fixed income products rose to 2.74%, indicating a divergence in performance [22][26] - The market's overall performance is influenced by the ongoing low interest rate environment and regulatory changes affecting product structures [26][31] New Product Issuance - In April, the issuance of new wealth management products decreased compared to March, with fixed income plus products leading the market [35][36] - The new issuance of fixed income plus products amounted to 272.99 billion yuan, significantly higher than pure fixed income products [35][36] - The majority of new products were in the 1-3 year maturity range, reflecting a trend towards medium-term investments in a declining interest rate environment [35][36] Product Maturity and Compliance - The compliance rate for wealth management products reached 74.75% in April, an increase of 7.05% from March, attributed to the recovery in the bond market [44][48] - Short-term products maintained higher compliance rates due to their flexibility in adjusting performance benchmarks in response to market fluctuations [44][48]

Core Viewpoint - The current investment and financial market is facing a complex situation characterized by low interest rates and high volatility, leading investors to prioritize both returns and safety [1][2]. Market Environment - Continuous counter-cyclical adjustments have raised expectations for interest rate cuts, with the LPR in 2024 driving down deposit rates and prompting funds to flow back into bank wealth management products [2]. - The global economic environment is increasingly complex, with heightened geopolitical risks contributing to market uncertainty and a surge in investor demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Investment Product Performance - The bond market's performance is a key factor influencing the returns of money market funds, bond funds, and bank wealth management products, with government bond yields serving as a benchmark for pricing [3][4]. - In Q1 2025, the bond market experienced a correction, impacting the performance of traditional investment products. The average net value of medium to long-term pure bond funds fell by 0.21%, with some funds seeing declines exceeding 1% [5]. Bank Wealth Management Products - Bank wealth management products demonstrated better performance compared to bond funds, with an annualized return of 2.11% as of March 31, 2025, outperforming money market funds and bond funds [6]. - The maximum drawdown for bank wealth management products was only 0.15%, indicating stronger stability amid market fluctuations [6]. Interest Rate Trends - As of March 2025, a notable "inversion" in deposit rates was observed, where longer-term deposits offered lower returns than shorter-term ones, reflecting banks' strategies to optimize deposit structures in a low-rate environment [7][8]. - The average annualized return for bank wealth management products typically ranges from 2.0% to 3.5%, making them more attractive for investors seeking stable returns compared to traditional fixed-term deposits [8]. Technological Innovations - The introduction of the "Cuckoo" system by WeBank aims to enhance investment decision-making for small and micro enterprises by providing accurate cash flow predictions and tailored wealth management products [10][11]. - This system has shown a prediction accuracy exceeding 95%, allowing banks to improve fund utilization efficiency by 10% and offering personalized investment recommendations to users [11]. Product Highlights - WeBank's "Stable Profit" product has gained significant traction, with over 343,000 users and a high percentage of users achieving positive returns over three months [14]. - In a volatile market, "Stable Profit" achieved an average annualized return of 2.77% over the past year, with a positive return rate of 96.76% during market fluctuations, outperforming both the broader bank wealth management market and bond funds [14].