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当下的小登是拿来变现的,而不是布局
雪球· 2025-10-21 08:36
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the comparison between two types of companies in investment: "Old Deng" companies, which have stable cash flows and market monopolies, and "Small Deng" companies, which are in emerging industries with high growth potential but also high uncertainty [5][6][7]. Group 1: Old Deng Companies - An example of an "Old Deng" company is a provincial state-owned publishing group that monopolizes the K-12 educational materials market, generating stable cash flows of several billion annually due to the inelastic demand for educational resources [5]. - The advantages of such companies include stable profits and a strong market position, but they face limitations in expanding to other regions and adapting to demographic changes like declining birth rates [6]. Group 2: Small Deng Companies - "Small Deng" companies, such as those in the semiconductor industry, are characterized by their potential for rapid growth, with projections suggesting an average annual growth rate of 50% over the next decade [6][7]. - However, investing in "Small Deng" companies carries risks, including the uncertainty of industry trends, the potential for technological obsolescence, and the challenges of establishing effective competitive barriers [8][9]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Investors often misjudge the value of stocks, buying at high prices during market hype, which leads to poor investment outcomes [10][11]. - It is crucial for investors to develop their own valuation systems and avoid investing in overly popular stocks, as the market conditions for "Small Deng" stocks are more suitable for profit-taking rather than long-term positioning [11].