证 券 研 究 报 告 海通发展（603162）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 国内民营干散龙头，把握市场复苏机遇 目标价：10.7 元 风险提示：宏观经济下行、运力供给过剩、油价大幅波动。 [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 3,659 | 3,926 | 4,765 | | 5,527 | | 同比增速(%) | 114.5% | 7.3% | 21.4% | | 16.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 549 | 326 | 597 | | 745 | | 同比增速(%) | 196.7% | -40.5% | 83.0% | | 24.8% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.59 | 0.35 | 0.65 | | 0.81 | | 市盈率(倍) | 14 | 24 | 13 | | 11 | | 市净率(倍) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.6 | | 1.4 | | 资料来源：公司公告， | 华创证 ...

7月21日晚间，海通发展(603162.SH)发布2025年半年度报告，公司上半年实现营业收入18亿元，同比增 长6.74%；净利润8686.61万元，同比下降64.14%。 同日，海通发展发布的定增预案显示，公司拟定增不超过人民币2.1亿元，扣除发行费用后的募集资金 净额将用于"干散货船购置项目"。 海通发展表示，公司拟通过本次发行募集资金购置3艘干散货船舶，继续扩大公司运力规模、优化船队 结构，进一步深化全球航线布局。 公告显示，海通发展本次发行价格为7.00元/股，发行价格不低于定价基准日前20个交易日公司股票交 易均价的80%，相当于打了八折。 需要注意的是，海通发展控股股东、实际控制人曾而斌家族拟包揽公司此次定增。 尽管陷入增收不增利，海通发展（603162）仍坚持扩充运力。 手上现金并不充沛 盈利能力不佳之下，海通发展还计划扩充运力。 半年报中，海通发展称，2025年上半年，公司通过新购船舶以及光船租赁的方式新增运力12艘，截至 2025年6月末已交接8艘，待全部船舶交接完成后，公司长租干散货船舶(使用运力期限在一年及一年以 上)14艘，自营干散货船舶58艘，重吊多用途船1艘，油船3艘，总计散货船 ...

南华干散货运输市场日报 —当日，大豆、煤炭发运需求小幅回落，BPI运价指数下跌 2025年07月22日 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、总结 当周BDI综合运价指数及分船型运价指数涨幅收窄，其中分船型BPI运价指数下跌。 从主要港口船舶停靠数量、商品发运、用船需求去看：大豆发运量回落，豆粕发运量大增；工业品发运中铝 土矿及其他干货发运需求较大，用船需求助推大海岬船和灵便型船用船需求，支撑BCI和BHSI运价指数上 涨。 BCI期现货价格比较 source： 同花顺,南华研究,路透 美元/天 BCI运价指数(右轴) BCI-C10_14航线运价 C5TC连续合约价格 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 0 2000 4000 20000 40000 二、现货指数回顾 2.1.BDI运价指数分析：BPI运价指数由涨转跌 7月21日数据显示，与上周相比，BDI综合运价指数涨幅缩窄，同时BPI运价指数下跌。 具体去看，BDI综合运价指数收于2016点，周环比上涨13.07%；BCI ...

证券代码：603162 证券简称：海通发展 公告编号：2025-085 福建海通发展股份有限公司 关于 2025 年度向特定对象发行 A 股股票 摊薄即期回报、采取填补措施及相关主体承诺的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据《国务院办公厅关于进一步加强资本市场中小投资者合法权益保护工作 的意见》（国办发2013110 号）、《国务院关于进一步促进资本市场健康发展 的若干意见》（国发201417 号）和《关于首发及再融资、重大资产重组摊薄即 期回报有关事项的指导意见》（证监会公告201531 号）等法律、法规和规范性 文件的相关要求，为保障中小投资者利益，福建海通发展股份有限公司（以下简 称"公司"）就本次向特定对象发行 A 股股票（以下简称"本次发行"）对即 期回报摊薄的影响进行了认真分析，并提出了具体的填补回报措施，相关主体对 公司填补回报措施能够得到切实履行作出了承诺，具体如下： 一、本次发行对即期回报的影响 （一）假设前提 用，最终以实际发行完成时间为准）； 国证监会注册并实际发行的股份数量为准）； ...

周一波罗的海干散货运价指数升至四周高点，各船型运价均走升。波罗的海干散货运价指数较前一日上 涨120点，或7.2%，报1783点，为6月18日以来新高。海岬型船运价指数上涨263点或12.5%，至2367 点。海岬型船日均获利上升2180美元，至19633美元。巴拿马型船运价指数上涨89点，或4.8%，报1949 点，为去年6月18日以来最高位。巴拿马型船日均获利上涨801美元，至17544美元。超灵便型散货船运 价指数上涨25点，或2.1%，至1244点。 ...

航运中期策略：关税政策影响持续，布局大宗增产周期 20250710 摘要 集运行业过去五年经历两轮超高景气，受益于疫情和红海冲突，显著提 升了集运公司盈利能力和股东回报，并推动新一轮下单潮，加速欧美干 线船舶大型化，影响结构性供给。 关税政策在 2025 年上半年对集装箱运输出口产业链产生显著影响，预 计持续。全球原油和矿山增产周期将使油运和干散货运输需求端受益， 孕育投资机会。 2020-2022 年集运货量超预期增长，源于疫情下的宅经济、财政刺激 及供应链紊乱。2024 年初红海冲突导致欧线绕行，全行业有效运力消 耗 10%，推高运价。 2025 年下半年，集运行业运力缺口将被新船交付填补。中国出口受关 税摩擦影响，美线出口缩减，东南亚转口规模有限，中国制造业优势短 期内难以替代。 油运及干散货行业受益于全球增产周期，海运贸易需求增加。原油运输 行业在 2022-2025 上半年景气上升，但 2024 年下半年经历压力测试， 2025 年初合规市场供需结构有所恢复。 Q&A 干散货海运市场 2023-2024 年景气温和上升，吨海里需求增长 12%， 船队规模增长 6%，产能利用率提高。2025 年海运量 ...

Summary of the Shipping Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the shipping industry, particularly the container shipping market and its dynamics in 2025 [1][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments Container Shipping Market Performance - The container shipping market experienced fluctuations in the first half of 2025, with pressures in Q1 due to reduced Suez Canal traffic and high new ship deliveries [1][5]. - In April, U.S.-China trade tensions led to a decline in cargo volume on U.S. routes, but shipping companies managed to maintain freight rates by cutting capacity [1][5]. - A trade agreement in May resulted in a surge in demand, leading to increased freight rates on U.S. routes, indicating strong overall performance despite earlier weaknesses [1][5]. Global Trade Dynamics - The global trade landscape is shifting eastward, with Chinese companies expanding operations in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, driving demand for container shipping in the Asia region [1][6]. - ASEAN has become China's largest trading partner, with increasing foreign direct investment contributing to growth in container shipping demand [1][6]. Domestic Container Shipping Outlook - The domestic container shipping market is expected to perform well in 2025 due to limited new ship deliveries and demand driven by domestic consumption subsidies and infrastructure projects [1][7]. - The U.S. 301 tariff law may encourage Chinese shipowners to adopt hub-and-spoke services, which could mitigate impacts on smaller feeder vessels [1][7]. Cruise Market Conditions - The cruise market is described as being in a "weak reality with upward options" state, facing challenges from low refinery utilization rates in China and OPEC's previous production decisions [1][8]. - However, OPEC's recent production increases and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may lead to a rise in short-term oil transportation demand, suggesting potential growth for the cruise market [1][8]. Geopolitical Risks - The shipping industry faces significant uncertainties due to geopolitical conflicts, including U.S.-China trade tensions and Middle Eastern conflicts, which can impact shipping operations and market sentiment [2][9]. - The instability in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, could lead to increased demand for preemptive shipping and stockpiling [3][9]. Dry Bulk Market Conditions - The dry bulk market is currently characterized by weak supply and demand, with low growth rates in demand due to a downturn in domestic real estate and infrastructure [3][11]. - Future opportunities may arise from reconstruction efforts in Ukraine and increased capital spending in Germany, which could boost demand for dry bulk shipping [3][11]. Additional Important Insights - The focus for investment strategies in the second half of 2025 should be on cash flow and supply growth, as these indicators reflect current profitability and future industry stability [4][10]. - The dry bulk market, despite its current low profile, has potential for upward movement if significant geopolitical and economic events unfold favorably [11].

招商轮船 20250703 摘要 中东局势恶化，包括以色列和伊朗之间的武装冲突，使得油运价格指数从 3 万 美元跳涨至 5 万美元。然而，这种涨幅对公司的业绩影响预计将在第三季度显 现，因为事件发生在 6 月份。 招商轮船的业务布局和市场覆盖情况如何？ 招商轮船 2024 年全年 ROE 为 13%，经营活动现金流量达 84.76 亿元， 并派发现金股息 20.8 亿元，分红比例占归母净利润的 40%，股息率约 为 4%。 2025 年第一季度，招商轮船营收同比减少 10%，归母净利润同比下降 37%至 8.65 亿元，主要受 1 月份船型运输价格波动影响。 中东局势恶化导致油运价格指数上涨，但对招商轮船业绩的影响预计将 在第三季度显现。 招商轮船专注于国际货运，以油气运输和干散货为双主业，辅以集装箱、 汽车改装等业务。2024 年混量接近 2 亿吨，周转量增长 11%，受益于 散货船长航线比例上升及重载提高。 2024 年，油船业务贡献招商轮船 50.6%的利润，干散货占比接近 30%，集装箱占比 25%，滚装占比 6%，LNG 运输队伍贡献度 11.6%。 招商轮船通过调控仓租租金降低成本，扩张运力订购 ...

航运港口 2025 年 6 月专题 集装箱吞吐量稳增，干散货吞吐量企稳 [Table_Industry] 航运港口专题 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 7 月 1 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业专题研究（普通） | 交通运输 | [Table_StockAndRank] | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 匡培钦 交运行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524070004 邮 箱：kuangpeiqin@cindasc.com 黄安 交运行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524110001 邮 箱：huangan@cindasc.com 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 [Table_Author] [Table_S [➢Table_Summary 一、ummar 综述：全国进出口总额及货物吞吐量情况 y] ] ◼ 进出口总额：2025 年 1～5 月，全国进出口总额实现 17.94 万亿 元，同比增长 2.5%，其中，全国进口总额实现 7.28 万亿 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the transportation industry, highlighting sufficient safety margins in the current market conditions [4][22]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the aviation sector, driven by limited supply growth and increasing passenger demand, suggesting a potential uplift in airline profitability [41][42]. - The shipping market is experiencing volatility, with a significant drop in oil tanker rates due to easing Middle Eastern tensions, while coal and dry bulk shipping may see a rebound [23][24][25]. - The logistics and express delivery sectors are expected to benefit from policy support aimed at optimizing costs, with major players likely to gain market share through strategic pricing [4][22]. Summary by Sections Transportation Industry Performance - The transportation index decreased by 0.24%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.19 percentage points [5][12]. - The shipping sector faced the largest decline at -4.39%, while the intermediate products and consumer goods supply chain services saw a rise of 7.56% [5][12]. Shipping and Oil Transportation - VLCC rates fell by 44% to $29,878 per day, with Middle Eastern routes dropping 54% to $28,488 per day due to reduced demand [23]. - The report notes that the average MR tanker rate decreased by 5% to $24,132 per day, reflecting a broader trend of declining rates in the oil transportation sector [24]. Dry Bulk and Coal Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 9.9% to 1,521 points, indicating a challenging environment for large bulk carriers, while smaller vessels showed resilience [25]. - The report anticipates a seasonal decline in rates for Capesize vessels, but strong summer coal demand may support smaller bulk carriers [25]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain high growth rates, with major companies like SF Express and JD Logistics positioned to optimize capacity utilization [4][22]. - The report highlights the potential for market share consolidation among leading express delivery firms due to favorable policy changes [4][22]. Aviation Sector - The aviation market is entering a peak season, with supply constraints and rising passenger volumes expected to enhance airline profitability [41][42]. - Recommended stocks in the aviation sector include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [41][42]. High Dividend Stocks - The report identifies several high dividend stocks within the transportation sector, including Bohai Ferry and Daqin Railway, which offer attractive yields [17][20].