证券研究报告 2025年07月13日 交通运输 供给主导大周期，技术催生新平台 ——交运行业首席联盟培训 作者： 行业报告 | 行业专题研究 分析师 陈金海 SAC执业证书编号：S1110521060001 联系人 李宁 1 行业评级： 上次评级： 强于大市 强于大市 维持 （ 评级） 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和免责申明 摘要 1. 航运航空：从运力增长，到周转效率 2020年以来航运周期上行，都是运力周转效率下降所致，并非运力总量紧缺。这背后是贸易全 球化受阻、地缘政治冲突加剧。未来航空周期上行，也可能受飞机周转效率下降驱动。 2. 港口公路：从扩建产能，到收购整合 随着需求增长放缓，公路、港口、铁路新建产能需求下降，存量产能整合成为主流，并决定盈 利能力。各省份港口整合、上市高速公路公司路产收购，能推升ROE和PB。 3. 快递物流：增长放缓，价格主导盈利 快递单量增速放缓，单票价格主导盈利增速，未来价格竞争或将缓和；大宗供应链公司份额提 升放缓，商品价格涨跌决定利润增速，未来或从贸易向制造转型。 4. 交运平台：看新能源汽车和无人驾驶 新能源汽车和无人驾驶降低运输成本，催生网约车、车货匹配、即时配送 ...

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 2025 年 07 月 12 日 通胀叙事航运板块与大宗共振，船 价企稳推荐中国船舶、苏美达 看好 ——申万宏源交运一周天地汇(20250706-20250711) 本期投资提示： 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 证券分析师 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 研究支持 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 刘衣云 A0230524100007 liuyy@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearc ...

航运中期策略：关税政策影响持续，布局大宗增产周期 20250710 摘要 集运行业过去五年经历两轮超高景气，受益于疫情和红海冲突，显著提 升了集运公司盈利能力和股东回报，并推动新一轮下单潮，加速欧美干 线船舶大型化，影响结构性供给。 关税政策在 2025 年上半年对集装箱运输出口产业链产生显著影响，预 计持续。全球原油和矿山增产周期将使油运和干散货运输需求端受益， 孕育投资机会。 2020-2022 年集运货量超预期增长，源于疫情下的宅经济、财政刺激 及供应链紊乱。2024 年初红海冲突导致欧线绕行，全行业有效运力消 耗 10%，推高运价。 2025 年下半年，集运行业运力缺口将被新船交付填补。中国出口受关 税摩擦影响，美线出口缩减，东南亚转口规模有限，中国制造业优势短 期内难以替代。 油运及干散货行业受益于全球增产周期，海运贸易需求增加。原油运输 行业在 2022-2025 上半年景气上升，但 2024 年下半年经历压力测试， 2025 年初合规市场供需结构有所恢复。 Q&A 干散货海运市场 2023-2024 年景气温和上升，吨海里需求增长 12%， 船队规模增长 6%，产能利用率提高。2025 年海运量 ...

Core Viewpoint - Both China Shipbuilding (SH600150) and China State Shipbuilding Corporation (SH601989) are expected to report significant year-on-year growth in net profit for the first half of 2025, with China Shipbuilding's profit scale projected to be higher than that of China State Shipbuilding, while the latter's growth rate is anticipated to be faster [1][8]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - China Shipbuilding anticipates a net profit of between 2.8 billion to 3.1 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 98.25% to 119.49% [8]. - China State Shipbuilding expects a net profit of between 1.5 billion to 1.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 181.73% to 238.08% [8]. Group 2: Reasons for Profit Growth - The profit growth for China Shipbuilding is attributed to increased prices and quantities of delivered civil ships, along with effective cost control [8]. - China State Shipbuilding's profit increase is due to its ability to leverage the shipbuilding industry's development trends, enhance efficiency, and significantly increase the number of civil ship deliveries [9]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Strategic Moves - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing a positive development trend, with both companies optimizing their order structures and improving operational performance [9]. - China Shipbuilding is set to absorb high-quality assets from China State Shipbuilding, aiming to become the largest and most technologically advanced shipbuilding company in China [10]. - The company plans to enhance its deep-sea technology capabilities, which are expected to create new demands in exploration, communication, equipment, materials, and services [11]. Group 4: Future Goals - China Shipbuilding aims to achieve an operating revenue of 80.5 billion yuan in 2025, with specific targets including the completion of 89 civil ships and 270 repair ships [11]. - The company is focusing on high-demand ship types such as large LNG carriers and VLCCs, while also enhancing its capabilities in deep-sea equipment development [11].

板块周涨跌情况： 过去5个交易日，上证指数涨跌幅为+1.40%，深证成指涨跌幅为+1.25%，沪深300指数涨跌幅为+1.54%，创业 板指涨跌幅为+1.50%。中信交通运输板块涨跌幅为-0.3%，涨跌幅位居所有板块第27位。过去5个交易日，交 通运输行业子板块以上涨为主。涨跌幅前三位的子板块为：航运（+1.91%），港口（+0.83%），公路 （+0.70%）。涨跌幅后三位的子板块为：航空（-2.74%），快递（-1.37%），铁路（-0.93%）。 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 地缘政治事件扰动剧烈，25H1油运运价宽幅震荡 2025H1，地缘政治事件扰动运价，1月美国对俄油轮实施大规模制裁，造成短期运价跳涨，而制裁带来的原油 合规运输需求提升使25Q1运价维持高位运行。Q2以来全球原油需求预 ...

作为参考，克拉克森的数据显示，目前一艘13000/14000TEU传统燃料集装箱船新造船价格约为1.51亿美 元，与去年同期持平。 今年年初，HD现代三湖确定的全年接单目标为45亿美元。截至目前，HD现代三湖今年以来承接的新船 订单金额已达到全年接单目标的约76.7%，而这仅仅用了不到100天的时间。 HD韩国造船海洋没有透露船东方面的具体信息，但据外媒消息，这份订单来自韩国长锦商船，新船将 由韩国最大海运公司HMM租赁。 7月8日，韩国HD现代集团造船业务控股公司HD韩国造船海洋宣布，与一家大洋洲地区船东签订了4艘 集装箱船建造合同。 这也是HD现代三湖今年以来承接的第三批集装箱船订单，从而使其今年承接的集装箱船订单达到了10 艘。4月28日，HD韩国造船海洋宣布与希腊船王Evangelos Marinakis旗下的核心航运公司Capital Maritime签订了4艘8400TEU集装箱船的建造合同，合同总金额5.6亿美元（约合40.4亿元人民币），相 当于单船造价1.4亿美元，将在HD现代三湖建造，计划在2028年6月底之前陆续交付。5月30日，HD韩 国造船海洋宣布，与签订了2艘8400TEU集装箱船 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [5] Core Views - Geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in oil shipping rates in H1 2025, with a notable increase in rates due to sanctions and geopolitical tensions [1] - OPEC+ is expected to boost oil shipping demand in H2 2025 through increased production, despite weak global oil consumption growth [2] - The transportation sector is experiencing mixed performance, with shipping and port sub-sectors showing positive trends while aviation and express delivery face challenges [3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - In H1 2025, geopolitical events led to a sharp rise in oil shipping rates, particularly in January due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers, followed by a high demand for compliant oil transport [1] - The BDTI index reached 984 points by June 30, 2025, up 15.4% year-to-date, while the BDTI TD3C-TCE reported a daily rate of $29,300, an increase of 37.0% [1] 2. Oil Shipping - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August 2025, which is expected to support oil shipping demand despite a downward revision in global oil consumption growth forecasts [2] - The IEA predicts a global oil supply increase of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.4 million barrels and OPEC+ 400,000 barrels [2] 3. Sector Performance - The transportation sector's performance over the past five trading days showed the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.40%, while the transportation sector index fell by 0.3% [3] - The shipping sub-sector led gains with a 1.91% increase, while aviation faced a decline of 2.74% [3] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises in the transportation sector, particularly in highways, railways, and ports, due to their high dividend yields and value [4] - It also highlights the potential for recovery in oil shipping and container shipping, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping and China Merchants Energy [4] 5. Key Company Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies in the transportation sector, indicating a positive outlook for those involved in oil and container shipping [78]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of a 51% stake in Colombo Dockyard by Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) marks a significant step in the internationalization of India's shipbuilding industry, representing the first cross-border acquisition by a major Indian shipbuilding company [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - MDL announced the acquisition for $52.96 million, primarily through purchasing shares from Japan's Onomichi Dockyard and subscribing to new shares [1]. - Colombo Dockyard, established in 1974, is Sri Lanka's largest and oldest shipbuilding and repair company, with four dry docks capable of handling vessels up to 125,000 tons [1]. Group 2: Financial Context - Colombo Dockyard faced financial difficulties, reporting a record loss of $38 million in 2023, prompting its largest shareholder, Onomichi Dockyard, to seek an exit [1][2]. - Despite losses, the shipyard has a customer base across Europe, Asia, and Africa, with an order backlog of approximately $300 million [2]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to enhance MDL's commercial shipbuilding capabilities, complementing its role as a significant manufacturer of naval vessels [2]. - By integrating Colombo Dockyard's customer resources and repair expertise, MDL aims to strengthen its service capabilities in the Indian Ocean region and improve competitiveness in the international commercial shipping market [2]. Group 4: Government Initiatives - The Indian government has set a goal to become one of the top five shipbuilding nations by 2047, with plans to build medium-sized container ships by 2030 and large vessels by 2032 [3]. - A $3 billion Maritime Development Fund has been established to finance ship acquisitions, aiming to increase India's share in global shipping to 20% by 2047 [3]. Group 5: Support for Domestic Shipbuilding - The Indian government is implementing a tiered subsidy policy for shipbuilding, offering 20% to 30% subsidies for different types of vessels, alongside a $700 million investment to upgrade shipyard facilities [4]. - Plans include modernizing major ports and enhancing infrastructure to support the shipbuilding industry [4]. Group 6: Current Challenges - Despite ambitions, India's shipbuilding industry currently holds less than 0.2% of the global order book, with the largest domestic oil tanker only capable of carrying 93,000 tons, indicating a significant gap in capabilities for larger vessels [5]. - The industry faces challenges such as a weak foundation, insufficient capacity for large commercial vessels, and a lack of domestic demand [5].

Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 55,000 million and 59,000 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a decrease of 63,034 million to 67,034 million yuan compared to the same period last year, which is a year-on-year decline of 51.66% to 54.93% [1][2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 54,600 million and 58,600 million yuan, a decrease of 44,184 million to 48,184 million yuan compared to the previous year, reflecting a decline of 42.99% to 46.88% [2] Previous Year Performance - In the same period last year, the total profit was 140,427 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 122,034 million yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses of 102,784 million yuan [1] - The earnings per share for the previous year were 0.2532 yuan [1] Reasons for Performance Decline - The international refined oil transportation market has been affected by multiple factors, leading to a significant drop in freight rates year-on-year. For instance, the average Time Charter Equivalent (TCE) for the MR TC7 route (Singapore to East Coast Australia) was approximately 37,717 USD/day in the first half of 2024, while it is expected to drop to about 19,101 USD/day in the first half of 2025, marking a decline of 49.36% [1]

Group 1 - The company, COSCO SHIPPING Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., plans to issue A-shares to specific investors in 2025, subject to approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][2][3] - The total number of shares to be issued will not exceed 1,431,232,918 shares, with the final number to be determined based on subscription conditions and regulatory approvals [1][2] - The company aims to raise funds primarily for the construction of six Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), two LNG carriers, and three Aframax oil tankers [2][3] Group 2 - The company will initially invest its own funds in the projects until the raised funds are available, and any shortfall in the net amount raised will be covered by the company's own or self-raised funds [2][3] - The company has committed to ensuring that the issuance does not dilute the immediate returns for existing shareholders, with measures in place to address any potential dilution [2][3] - The company’s major shareholders include China Ocean Shipping Group, which holds 46.45% of the shares, making it the indirect controlling shareholder [6][7] Group 3 - The global oil transportation industry is expected to maintain growth, driven by increasing demand in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for over 50% of global oil imports [12][13] - The company operates primarily in the maritime transportation of liquid bulk hazardous goods, including crude oil, refined oil, LNG, LPG, and chemicals [6][11] - The international maritime industry is regulated by various organizations, including the International Maritime Organization, which sets standards for safety and environmental protection [8][9]