Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has shown a slight increase against the US dollar, currently at an exchange rate of 0.5720, reflecting a 0.09% rise, primarily due to signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that "quantitative tightening may be nearing its end," which has led to a decline in the US dollar index [1] - The sustainability of this technical rebound is questioned as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has expressed an open stance towards further rate cuts if necessary, fundamentally limiting the NZD's upward potential [1] - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming release of New Zealand's September food price index, which is expected to provide crucial guidance for the central bank's future interest rate decisions and may trigger new market volatility [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that the US labor market remains in a "low hiring, low layoff" state, suggesting that a rate cut may be considered in the October meeting [1] - Despite some economic data being missing due to government shutdowns, Powell indicated that this has not yet affected policymakers' outlook on the economic situation [1] - The futures market indicates that investors expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, with the possibility of three additional cuts next year [1] Group 3: Trade Tensions - The trade tensions between the US and China have escalated, with both sides imposing port fees on a wide range of goods [2] - President Trump has indicated that he is considering severing trade relations with China in sectors such as edible oils, which could lead to further retaliatory actions from the US government [2] - The ongoing trade tensions are expected to exert pressure on risk-sensitive currencies [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis of NZD/USD - The overall outlook for the NZD/USD remains bearish, maintaining a stable downtrend since July 1 [3] - There is a strong resistance zone above the current price, ranging from 0.6007 to 0.6059, while the key support area is located at 0.5684; a break below this level could open further downside potential, targeting the 0.5485 level [3]