但报道同时还称，到2025年底或2026年初，美国可能还有一些对华销售大豆的空间，而如果关税仍然存 在，销量可能会受到限制。有观点认为，巴西的大豆产量最终无法满足中国的进口需求，缺口可能约为 200万至500万吨。 美国总统特朗普日前曾在社交平台发帖称，希望中国能将大豆订单增加三倍，这将是大幅削减中美贸易 逆差的途径。对此，外交部发言人林剑本月12日答记者问时表示，具体问题建议向主管部门询问。中方 在中美经贸问题上的立场是一贯、明确的。中国商务部同日公布中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明称， 两国自当日起，再次暂停实施24%的关税90天，保留剩余10%的关税。但路透社称，上述三名贸易商表 示，此次延期不太可能刺激中方从美购买大豆，如果达成减税协议，中方可能会恢复购买美国大豆。 据悉，2024年，中国进口大豆1.05亿吨，自美国进口2214万吨，占比21.1%，自巴西进口7465万吨，占 比71.1%。进口来源以巴西大豆为主。 三名贸易商向路透社透露称，中国进口商已完成9月份的大豆预订单，进口量约为800万吨，全部来自南 美。关于10月份的订单，中国进口商也已从南美采购了约400万吨，占其预期需求的一半。报道提到， ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The short-term trend of gold prices will be driven by trade tensions, interest rate cut expectations, and geopolitical risks [1] - Trump's tariff policy may lead to further adjustments in global supply chains, increasing inflation expectations and supporting gold prices [1] - The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is nearly certain, which will continue to suppress the dollar and bond yields, creating a favorable environment for gold prices [1] Group 2: Short-term Gold Trading Strategy - The four-hour analysis indicates that gold has the potential to rise towards the 3410-3420 range [3] - The MACD indicator has completed an adjustment below the zero line, and a bullish crossover is expected to trigger a significant price increase [3] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on short positions during rebounds and long positions during pullbacks, with key resistance at 3410-3420 and support at 3380-3370 [3] Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices are supported by a dovish Federal Reserve and heightened geopolitical tensions, breaking above the short-term resistance of $37.87 [5] - If silver can maintain levels above $37.87, it may challenge the long-term resistance at $39.53, which is a 14-year high [5] - The trading strategy recommends buying on pullbacks at $38.00 with a stop loss at $37.80 and a target of $38.50, while aiming for $39.00 on a breakout [5]

受高额关税影响，瑞士飞机制造商Pilatus公司宣布，暂停向美国交付飞机。这是该公司对美国巨额关税作出的 最新回应。值得一提的是，美国是Pilatus公司的关键市场，该公司近50%的销售额都来自美国市场。 特朗普对瑞士动手！ 据新华社消息，美国对从瑞士进口商品征收39%关税的措施于当地时间8月7日生效。瑞士政府当天发表声明 说，瑞士约18%的出口商品销往美国，其中近六成将受到此关税影响。瑞士将继续与美国谈判，争取尽快降低 关税。 39%关税生效 8月8日，据新华社消息，美国对从瑞士进口商品征收39%关税的措施8月7日生效。瑞士政府当天发表声明说， 美国新关税措施对以出口为导向的瑞士经济造成巨大压力。 声明指出，瑞士约18%的出口商品销往美国，其中近六成将受到此关税影响。瑞方正与美方及受影响行业保持 密切联系，目前暂不考虑对美国采取关税反制措施。 瑞士联邦主席卡琳·凯勒-祖特尔和副主席居伊·帕姆兰5日至6日率领代表团赴美会谈，之后未宣布与美方就关税 达成协议。 凯勒-祖特尔对记者表示，瑞士谈判代表留在华盛顿，仍在尝试达成协议。 "目前没有考虑采取关税反制措施来应对美国关税上调，因为这将给瑞士经济带来额外成本，尤 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices reached a two-week high of $3408.71 due to increased safe-haven demand driven by geopolitical uncertainties and weak U.S. employment data [2][3] - On August 7, gold prices surged by $26.05, or 0.77%, closing at $3395.30 per ounce, as market participants anticipated a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2] - The market is currently experiencing a wide trading range between $3400 and $3370, with ongoing volatility influenced by various news events, including U.S. tariffs and employment data [3][4] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to a mix of fundamental factors, including China's central bank's increase in gold reserves and geopolitical tensions involving U.S. tariffs [3] - The technical outlook suggests that if gold breaks below the support level of $3375-$3370, it may indicate a bearish trend, while a breakout above $3409 could lead to further gains [6] - The current trading strategy recommends focusing on short positions near $3400, with key resistance levels identified at $3408-$3418 and support levels at $3370-$3360 [6][8] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices have shown significant declines, with Brent crude falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI crude to $63.82 per barrel, marking a weekly drop of over 4% and 5% respectively [7] - The downward trend in oil prices is primarily driven by concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and shifting OPEC+ policies [7] - The technical analysis indicates a bearish outlook for oil, with six consecutive days of declining prices and MACD indicators suggesting strengthening bearish momentum [8]

(2)由于贸易紧张局势加剧，2025年4月付运至美国市场的货品受到阻碍，并自2025年第二季起需支付对 进口美国的商品所实施的关税;及 (3)该期间集团库务投资的上市证券出现未变现及已变现净收益约900万港元，相对于2024年同期的未变 现及已变现净收益为2100万港元。 智通财经APP讯，彩星玩具(00869)发布公告，预期集团2025年6月30日止6个月的未经审核收入约1.86亿 港元，相对于2024年同期的收入为4.45亿港元;预期集团取得净亏损约2600万港元，相对于2024年同期 净溢利9100万港元。 按年比较的主要原因是由于： (1)收入减少原因是不能如去年般受惠于2024年3月上映"哥斯拉X金刚：新帝国"电影所带动，"哥斯拉X 金刚"的产品付运量按预期回落;"忍者龟"品牌并无大型娱乐活动推动，致使"忍者龟"产品系列需求放缓; 及为配合即将推出的新产品做准备，产品开发、模具及媒体制作费用增加; ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's financial results for Q2 showed significant fluctuations, with revenue exceeding market expectations but net profit experiencing a dramatic decline compared to the previous year [2][5]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $92.515 billion, surpassing market expectations of $91.963 billion, but down from $93.653 billion year-over-year [2][4]. - Net profit for Q2 was $12.370 billion, exceeding market expectations of $10.703 billion, but down 59% from $30.348 billion in the same quarter last year [2][4]. Investment Performance - Investment net income for Q2 was $4.97 billion, a significant drop from $18.75 billion in the same period last year [5]. - Berkshire's top five holdings accounted for 67% of its total portfolio value as of June 30, 2025, including American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron [5]. Market Context - In Q2, U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 4.98%, Nasdaq up 17.75%, and S&P 500 up 10.57%, while Berkshire's stock price fell 8.72% [7]. - Trade tensions and concerns over Warren Buffett's retirement have negatively impacted investor sentiment [7]. Stock Trading Activity - Berkshire sold approximately $3 billion worth of stocks in Q2, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of net stock sales [9]. - The company held $344.1 billion in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q2, slightly down from $347.7 billion in the previous quarter [9]. Strategic Outlook - Buffett emphasized a cautious approach to investing, indicating that while cash levels are high, the company is actively seeking investment opportunities [9]. - The preference for equity investments over cash equivalents remains unchanged, with a focus on acquiring good businesses [9].

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's financial results for Q2 showed significant fluctuations, with revenue exceeding market expectations but net profit experiencing a dramatic decline compared to the previous year [2][5]. Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $92.515 billion, surpassing market expectations of $91.963 billion, but down from $93.653 billion year-over-year [2][4]. - Q2 net profit was $12.370 billion, exceeding market expectations of $10.703 billion, but down 59% from $30.348 billion in the same quarter last year [2][4]. Investment Performance - Investment net income for Q2 was $4.970 billion, a significant drop from $18.750 billion in the same period last year [5]. - The fair value of Berkshire's top five holdings accounted for 67% of its portfolio, including American Express, Apple, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, and Chevron [5]. Market Conditions - In Q2, U.S. stock markets experienced volatility due to tariff uncertainties, with the Dow Jones up 4.98%, Nasdaq up 17.75%, and S&P 500 up 10.57%, while Berkshire's stock price fell 8.72% [6]. - Trade tensions accelerated in the first half of 2025, posing threats to Berkshire's diversified businesses, with revenue declines reported in its clothing and toy brands [6]. Leadership Transition - Warren Buffett announced plans to retire by the end of the year, raising concerns among investors despite having named Greg Abel as his successor in 2021 [7]. Stock Management - In Q2, Berkshire sold approximately $3 billion in stocks, marking the 11th consecutive quarter of net stock sales, and did not engage in stock buybacks [8]. - As of the end of Q2, Berkshire's cash and cash equivalents stood at $344.1 billion, slightly down from $347.7 billion in the previous quarter, with Buffett indicating a cautious approach to investment opportunities [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5% during the upcoming meeting, with a very low probability of a rate cut at only 3% [1][2] Group 1: External Pressures - President Trump has been vocally critical of the Federal Reserve, questioning its spending on renovations and pressuring for rate cuts to alleviate government debt costs [1] - The White House's proximity to the Federal Reserve has intensified the scrutiny and criticism directed at Chairman Powell [2] Group 2: Internal Dissent - There is a possibility that multiple Federal Reserve governors may vote against the decision for the first time in over 30 years, with the last occurrence dating back to 1993 [2] - Analysts predict that governors Waller and Bowman may cast dissenting votes due to concerns over high interest rates amid rising employment risks [7][8] Group 3: Upcoming Meeting Highlights - Key changes in the Federal Reserve's statement are anticipated, particularly regarding the assessment of economic uncertainty, which may remain at a high level [4][5] - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to influence the Federal Reserve's economic outlook, with a potential downgrade from "solid" to "moderate" growth [6] Group 4: Rate Cut Signals - The likelihood of Powell signaling a September rate cut during the meeting is considered low, but investors will look for clues during his press conference [9][10] - Current market pricing suggests a greater than 60% probability of a rate cut in September, although the Federal Reserve may be cautious about raising these expectations before key economic data is released [12] Group 5: Trade and Tariff Impacts - Powell may face questions regarding the impact of upcoming tariffs on inflation and economic conditions, as uncertainty continues to affect business decisions [14][15] - The delayed implementation of tariffs is expected to have a gradual impact on prices, with businesses currently absorbing some of the costs [15] Group 6: Political Pressures - Powell is likely to be questioned about the influence of political pressures on monetary policy decisions, particularly in light of recent scrutiny from the Trump administration [16][17] - The potential for an internal review of the Federal Reserve's non-monetary policy functions has been suggested, indicating a need for clarity on the institution's mission [17]

Group 1 - The global trade situation is tense as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, with the U.S. Commerce Secretary stating that the deadline will not be extended [1] - The U.S. and EU reached a trade agreement on July 27, where the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on EU goods, while some countries have yet to reach agreements with the U.S. [1][2] - The EU has made significant concessions, including a commitment to invest $600 billion in the U.S. and purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy products [2] Group 2 - The U.S. is negotiating with Japan, which has agreed to invest $550 billion in exchange for a 15% "preferential" tax rate and increased imports of U.S. rice by 75% [2] - Other countries like the Philippines and Indonesia have accepted a 19% tariff threshold, while Vietnam has secured a 20% tariff threshold by offering zero tariffs on U.S. goods [2] - The U.K. is expected to receive a minimum tax rate of 10%, but details are still pending final agreement between the two countries [3] Group 3 - Ongoing negotiations with countries like South Korea and India are challenging due to the pressure from U.S. tariff policies on their domestic economies [3] - A new round of U.S.-China trade talks is scheduled in Stockholm, with key officials from both sides participating [3] Group 4 - Optimism from easing trade tensions has led to record highs in U.S. stock markets, while European markets have also reached their highest levels since early June [4] - Despite the market rally, concerns remain about the long-term impact of high tariffs on U.S. consumers and the competitive position of EU exporters [4] - Morgan Stanley notes that while the market has not collapsed, there is a 40% probability of economic slowdown due to trade issues, especially if further tariffs are imposed [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. President Trump has shortened the deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach a ceasefire agreement by 50 days, expressing disappointment over Putin's continuation of the war [1] - Trump has threatened severe economic sanctions against Russia if it does not end hostilities with Ukraine, which has heightened the urgency for sanctions as Russia continues its attacks on Ukrainian cities [1] - The market is reacting sensitively to these developments, with concerns over potential chain reactions from sanctions, including energy price volatility, trade disruptions, and increased geopolitical risks [1] Group 2 - Russia, as a significant global energy exporter, has its situation impacting the energy market notably, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.06% to $66.50 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 2.01% to $68.47 per barrel [1] - The Russian Finance Ministry has reported that due to weak oil export prices, Russia's oil and gas revenue is expected to lose 4.47 trillion rubles by 2025, highlighting the uncertainty in the energy market and Russia's economic dependence on energy exports [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, but warns that trade tensions could overshadow this outlook, influenced by Trump's sanctions policy and trade agreements between the U.S. and EU [2] - The EU has reached a trade agreement with the U.S. imposing a 15% tariff on EU goods exported to the U.S., while the U.S. plans to impose tariffs on goods from Mexico and other countries, increasing global market uncertainty [2]