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中通客车(000957)公司点评报告:25Q3业绩表现符合预期 出海构筑长期核心动能
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 08:38
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.66 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.6% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 280 million yuan, up 41.8% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 250 million yuan, reflecting a 43.5% increase [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 1.71 billion yuan, which is a 16.0% increase year-on-year but a 23.7% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 90 million yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.5% but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 24.1% [1] - The net profit excluding non-recurring items for Q3 was 70 million yuan, marking a 0.6% year-on-year increase and a 30.2% quarter-on-quarter decrease [1] Sales and Market Dynamics - The company sold 3,171 vehicles in Q3, which is an 11.7% year-on-year increase and a 3.2% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - Export sales in Q3 totaled 1,202 vehicles, accounting for 37.9% of total sales, which is a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year and 18.1% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle fell to 541,000 yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 20,000 yuan but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 191,000 yuan [1] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 17.4%, down 1.2 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] - The operating expense ratio for Q3 was 11.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 3.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to rising R&D and sales expenses [2] - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q3 was 370 million yuan, contributing to the company's cash reserves [2] International Expansion and Strategic Partnerships - As of the first three quarters, overseas revenue accounted for 70% of total revenue, reflecting a 40% year-on-year growth, significantly outpacing sales growth [2] - The company is expanding its global market presence, covering various scenarios from public transport to high-end models, enhancing its brand image [2] - Collaborations with Shandong Heavy Industry Group and companies like Weichai and Heavy Truck have led to shared resources in channels, R&D, services, and parts, effectively reducing costs and improving response efficiency [2] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts total revenue of 7.33 billion yuan, 8.48 billion yuan, and 9.66 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 370 million yuan, 490 million yuan, and 620 million yuan [3]