未经许可，不得转载或者引用。 2026年以旧换新政策落地，我们认为：1）客车政策略超预期，市场之前对于客车补贴力度做 了和乘用车一样会退坡的预期，实际是延续的；2）25年公交略低预期：25年公交车销量2.9万 辆，同比-6%（24年公交车销量3万辆，同比+44%），两年增长下来距离合理更换中枢仍有差 距（公交60万保有量，8-10年更换周期，销量中枢6万台）；3）26年公交可以更乐观：考虑到 八年以上待更新公交数量（10万台以上）以及销量中枢，我们认为26年公交在补贴下仍保持增 长，我们保守预计26年公交4万台同比+40%。 推荐头部车企，重点推荐宇通客车/金龙汽车， 建议关注中通客车。 摩托车观点更新： 大排量+出口持续高景气，看好龙头车企。我们预测2026年行业总销量1938万辆，同比+14%， 其中大排量126万辆，同比+31%。大排量：1）内销：25H2大排量内销转弱，我们预计随26年 国内新品供给推出，内销有望小幅增长，预计26年内销43万，同比+5%；2）出口：欧洲+拉美 中国品牌份额提升空间充足，我们预计26年出口83万，同比+50%。 看好大排量+出口持续增 长，优选龙头车企。推荐春风动力+隆 ...

期货研究报告：周度报告——新能源汽车 3 月中上旬新能源乘用车零售同比-17% [★Ta动bl态e_跟Su踪mmary] 新 能 据乘联会发布，3 月中上旬（1-22 日），全国乘用车零售同比-16%， 全国新能源乘用车零售同比-17%；今年以来，分别同比-18%、 -23%。汽车市场正在呈现季节性回暖，其中燃油车市场受到终 端折扣减少和油价波动影响，本该出现的回暖行情受阻，新能 源渗透率恢复至 50%以上。更长时间维度来看，乘联会秘书长 崔东树预计，车市可能要等到下半年才能恢复增长，全年来看， 国内销量同比下滑，出口量同比增长，全年车市批发销量将同 比持平。 源 与 新 材 海外市场，欧洲、北美、其他地区的 1 月新能源汽车销量分别 为 29 万辆（同比+20%）、8.5 万辆（同比-32%）、13 万辆（同 比+130%）。其中，泰国市场 1 月销量 4.4 万辆，同比增长 229%， 环比增长 187%。 料 结构性增长方面，一是油价高企催生替代能源需求，利好中国 新能源汽车国内市场复苏和海外出口增量；二是低空经济等新 兴领域正在酝酿新的机遇，能源转型背景下，用能场景正在迎 来系统性重构。 ★总结与展望 ...

2月，国内大中型新能源客车实现销量"双增"，前十排名发生较大变化。 根据中国客车统计信息网发布的数据显示，2026年2月，我国新能源客车（全文均指7米以上大中型新能源客车数据）共销售2212辆， 环比（2137辆）增长3.51%，同比（1891辆）增长16.98%。 经历1月短暂的"遇冷"，2月各新能源客车品牌马力全开，交出了一份不错的市场答卷。下面，我们一起来看看各家的具体表现。 | | | | | 2026年2月7米以上新能源客车市场销量情况 (单位: 辆) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 企业/总计 | 2月销量 | 月度份额 | 环比增幅 | 同比增幅 | 今年累计 | 累计份额 | 同期累计 | 累计增幅 | | | | 2212 | 100.00% | 3.51% | 16.98% | 4349 | 100.00% | 4551 | -4.44% | | 1 | 宇通客车 | 358 | 16.18% | 43.78% | 30.18% | 607 | 13.96% | ...

Core Insights - The Beijing Public Transport Group has announced the results of the 2026 bus vehicle renewal project, with multiple companies winning bids for various bus models totaling 1,320 vehicles [1][2]. Group 1: Winning Bids - Beijing Foton Motor Co., Ltd. won bids for three segments: 18-meter buses, 13.7-meter buses (bus version), and 13.7-meter buses (multi-seat version), with a total bid price of approximately 287.79 million yuan (about 28.78 million) [1]. - Geely Sichuan Commercial Vehicle Co., Ltd. secured contracts for 10-meter and 8-meter buses, with a total bid price of approximately 471.15 million yuan (about 47.12 million) [1]. - Zhongtong Bus Holding Co., Ltd. won bids for two segments of 10-meter and 8-meter buses, with a total bid price of approximately 292.70 million yuan (about 29.27 million) [1]. Group 2: Bid Details - The total bid prices for each segment are as follows: - 18-meter bus: 118,998,040 yuan - 13.7-meter bus (bus version): 48,797,920 yuan - 13.7-meter bus (multi-seat version): 119,994,700 yuan - 10-meter bus: 228,749,000 yuan - 8-meter bus: 242,400,000 yuan - 10-meter bus: 122,700,000 yuan - 8-meter bus: 170,000,000 yuan [1]. Group 3: Project Information - The project announcement was published on March 14, 2026, and the public notice period ends on March 17, 2026 [2]. - Relevant information about the project is available on multiple platforms, including the China Tendering Public Service Platform and the official website of the Beijing Public Transport Group [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [42]. Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in passenger vehicle demand due to the implementation of subsidy policies, with a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle sector in Q1 2026. It emphasizes the importance of selecting resilient domestic companies and those with strong export capabilities [32][33]. - For heavy trucks, the report anticipates a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3%. It recommends leading companies in the heavy truck sector [35]. - The bus sector is expected to see a growth in sales to 40,000 units in 2026, driven by the continuation of subsidy policies and the need for fleet renewal [36]. - The motorcycle market is projected to grow by 14% in total sales, with a significant increase in large-displacement motorcycles, particularly in export markets [33]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The report expects a recovery in passenger vehicle demand in Q1 2026 due to subsidy policies, with a focus on high-end electric vehicle manufacturers such as Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Great Wall, and others [32][33]. - The report suggests prioritizing companies with proven execution capabilities in overseas markets, recommending BYD, Great Wall, and Chery for export [32]. Heavy Trucks - In 2025, the wholesale volume reached 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. The report forecasts a sales volume of 800,000 to 850,000 units for 2026, a 3% increase year-on-year [35]. - Recommended companies include China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and others [35]. Buses - The report indicates that the bus subsidy policy has exceeded expectations, with a projected sales increase to 40,000 units in 2026, a 40% year-on-year growth [36]. - Key recommendations include Yutong Bus and King Long [36]. Motorcycles - The motorcycle industry is expected to achieve total sales of 19.38 million units in 2026, a 14% increase, with large-displacement motorcycles projected to grow by 31% [33]. - Recommended companies include Chunfeng Power and Longxin General [33].

股票简称：中通客车 股票代码：000957 公告编号:2026-014 中通客车股份有限公司 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 中通客车股份有限公司截至 2026 年 2 月份产销数据快报如下： 2026 年 2 月份产销数据自愿性信息披露公告 本表为产销快报数据，最终数据以公司定期报告数据为准。同时 提醒广大投资者，不能以公司产销数据直接推算公司业绩情况。 特此公告。 中通客车股份有限公司董事会 2026 年 3 月 10 日 单位：辆 | 项 目 | 本月数 | 去年同期 | 单月同比 | 本年累计 | 去年同 | 累计同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 变动 | | 期累计 | 变动 | | 生产量 | 1029 | 615 | 67.32% | 2376 | 1474 | 61.19% | | 其中：大型车 | 770 | 292 | 163.70% | 1689 | 554 | 204.87% | | 中型车 | 252 | 299 | -15.72% | 6 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful collaboration between Chinese company Zhongtong Bus and three enterprises from Uzbekistan, focusing on enhancing public transportation and tourism in the region through the procurement of various bus models [1][3][7]. Group 1: Collaboration and Orders - Three companies from Tashkent, Uzbekistan, have reached a cooperation agreement with Zhongtong Bus to improve local transportation services [1][3]. - The order includes multiple models of Zhongtong tourist and public buses, scheduled for production and delivery by mid-April 2024 [5][7]. - The collaboration aims to provide more comfortable and affordable travel options for the residents of Akhangaran City, Uzbekistan [3][5]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Strategy - Zhongtong Bus is leveraging the "Belt and Road" initiative to deepen its overseas market presence, transitioning from merely "going out" to establishing a strong foothold [7]. - The company is collaborating with Shandong Heavy Industry Group and partners like Weichai to create a comprehensive overseas business development model that includes research, production, sales, and service [7]. - The successful order signifies a practical outcome of international cooperation and highlights the strength of Shandong's intelligent manufacturing in the global market [7]. Group 3: Cultural Exchange - During their visit, the Uzbek businessmen engaged in cultural exchange by purchasing Chinese-made gifts for their families, reflecting the warmth and sincerity of the cross-border partnership [8].

证券代码：000957 证券简称：中通客车 公告编号：2026-013 中通客车股份有限公司 截至 2026 年 2 月 28 日，公司通过股份回购专用证券账户以集中 竞价交易方式回购公司股份 8,269,000 股，占公司目前总股本的比例 为 1.39%，回购成交最高价为 11.25 元/股，最低价为 10.49 元/股， 成交总金额为人民币 89,139,181.86 元（不含交易费用）。本次回购 符合相关法律法规要求，符合既定的回购方案。 二、其他事项说明 公司回购股份的时间、回购股份的数量、回购股份价格及集中竞 价交易的委托时段均符合《上市公司股份回购规则》《深圳证券交易 所上市公司自律监管指引第 9 号—回购股份》等法律法规的相关规定。 （一）公司未在下列期间回购公司股份： 关于回购公司股份的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确和完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 中通客车股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 4 月 24 日召开了第十一届董事会第十一次会议，审议通过了《关于回购部分 A 股股份方案的议案》，同意公司使用自有资金或自筹资金以集中竞 价交易 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth of the new energy bus market in China, driven by government policies supporting the development of new energy vehicles [1] - Key players in the new energy bus industry include Yutong Bus, Zhongtong Bus, CRRC, Ankai Bus, Foton Motor, King Long, BYD, Dongfeng Motor, and Changan Automobile [1] Industry Overview - The new energy bus sector is a focal point for research and production within China's automotive industry, with numerous listed companies involved across various segments of the supply chain [1] - The report provides a comprehensive summary of listed companies in the new energy bus industry, detailing their revenue, profit, and business structure [1] Company Summaries - Yutong Bus (600066.SH), Zhongtong Bus (000957.SZ), and CRRC (601766.SH) are identified as leading companies in the bus manufacturing sector, focusing on new energy commercial vehicles and core components [4] - Ankai Bus (000868.SZ) and Foton Motor (600166.SH) are also significant players, with a diversified product range that includes both traditional and new energy vehicles [4] Revenue Performance - The report includes detailed revenue figures for various companies, with notable performances such as: - BYD (002594.SH) reported a revenue of 566.26 billion [7] - Ningde Times (300750.SH) achieved a revenue of 2830.72 billion [6] - King Long (600686.SH) generated a revenue of 110.06 billion [11] Business Structure and Focus - Companies like Ankai Bus, Zhongtong Bus, and King Long have a high proportion of their business focused on new energy buses, while others like Foton Motor and Dongfeng Motor have a more diversified approach [9] - The majority of these companies have a global sales presence, indicating a trend towards international market expansion [9] Manufacturing and Technology - The report emphasizes the technological advancements in the industry, with companies focusing on electric drive systems, battery management, and energy efficiency [11] - Key technologies include high-energy batteries, electric control systems, and integrated vehicle designs, which are crucial for maintaining competitive advantages in the market [11] Future Outlook - The new energy bus industry is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with companies planning to enhance their international market presence and invest in smart technology innovations [12]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic commercial vehicle market is experiencing strong growth, particularly in the new energy vehicle (NEV) segment, driven by policies promoting vehicle updates and the increasing penetration of NEVs in the market [1][5]. Group 1: Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis - In January 2023, domestic commercial vehicle sales reached 200,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19%, marking a new high for January in recent years [1][5]. - The total sales of commercial vehicles in 2025 are projected to reach 3.1 million units, representing a 9% year-on-year growth compared to 2022 [5]. - The penetration rate of NEVs in commercial vehicles is expected to reach 29% by 2025, indicating a robust growth trend [1][11]. Group 2: New Energy Commercial Vehicle Sales - In January 2026, NEV commercial vehicle sales are anticipated to hit 50,000 units, a 63% increase year-on-year, despite a 64% month-on-month decline [1][6]. - The total sales of NEV commercial vehicles in 2024 are projected to be 579,000 units, reflecting an 84% year-on-year growth [6]. - The NEV penetration rate in commercial vehicles reached 26% in January 2026, a 7 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [11]. Group 3: NEV Penetration Rate - The penetration rate of NEVs in commercial vehicles was around 3% from 2019 to 2021, increasing to 9% in 2022, 11% in 2023, and expected to reach 20% in 2024 [11]. - The NEV penetration rate for trucks in January 2026 is 21%, while for buses, it is 54%, both showing significant improvements [13]. - The NEV penetration rate for heavy trucks is projected to reach 34%, and for light trucks, it is expected to be 20% [13]. Group 4: Market Structure and Competition - The commercial vehicle market is primarily supported by light and heavy truck manufacturers, with companies like Foton, Wuling, and Sinotruk leading in sales [14]. - The market share of heavy trucks is particularly strong in regions like Southwest and South China, with NEV heavy trucks showing good penetration rates [15][16]. - The light truck market is also seeing strong performance in regions such as Southwest and Northwest, with increasing growth in the South China market [17][18].