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中国巨石(600176):全球玻纤龙头护城河深厚,周期底部开启上行新征程
Guotou Securities· 2025-03-13 11:16
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a target price of 15.0 CNY for the next six months [3][8]. Core Views - The company is recognized as a global leader in fiberglass production, with a strong competitive moat and resilience in operations, indicating a recovery in profitability starting in 2024 [1][8]. - The report highlights the expected improvement in demand from the wind power and automotive sectors, which will drive the recovery of fiberglass prices and profitability in 2025 [2][3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, China Jushi Co., Ltd., is a leading fiberglass manufacturer with six production bases globally and an annual production capacity of nearly 3 million tons, ranking first in the world [1][17]. - The company has demonstrated strong operational resilience, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.79% in revenue and 33.52% in net profit from 2010 to 2022 [1][26]. Business Expansion - The company has expanded its production capacity significantly over the years, establishing a global presence and becoming the largest fiberglass supplier in the U.S. and Egypt [23][24]. - The company has initiated a transition towards smart manufacturing and zero-carbon production, enhancing its competitive edge [17][25]. Operational Performance - In 2023, the company faced challenges with a decline in revenue and net profit due to weakened industry demand and price drops, with revenues of 14.88 billion CNY and a net profit of 3.04 billion CNY [1][26]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in 2024, with quarterly improvements in revenue and net profit as the market stabilizes [28]. Product Segments - The demand for roving and electronic fabrics is expected to grow, driven by the wind power and automotive sectors, with a projected increase in fiberglass production to 7.56 million tons in 2024 [2][3]. - The electronic fabric segment is poised for recovery in 2025, supported by advancements in AI and increased demand for electronic components [3][6]. Financial Forecast - The report forecasts revenues of 15.93 billion CNY, 19.22 billion CNY, and 20.77 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.04 billion CNY, 3.00 billion CNY, and 3.56 billion CNY [9][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a leading gross margin of 29.77% in 2023, outperforming its peers [7][8].