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中泰证券:健康化与场景细分引领能量饮料新增长 重点推荐东鹏饮料
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 01:51
Core Insights - The energy drink industry is shifting from a rigid demand for energy replenishment to a focus on health and scenario segmentation, with Dongpeng Beverage positioning itself as a leading brand by launching sugar-free products to meet core consumer needs [1] Group 1: Industry Development - By 2025, the Chinese energy drink market is expected to reach a scale of 62.785 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, and a sales volume of 4.1899 million kiloliters, reflecting a stable growth trend [1] - Dongpeng Beverage holds a market share of 39.87% in the first half of 2025, leading the industry amid intensified competition and ongoing low-price promotions [1] - The average price in the industry is projected to decrease by 1.89% year-on-year to 14.98 yuan per liter, with Dongpeng's strategy focusing on low pricing and large packaging [1] Group 2: Underlying Logic of Industry Development - Domestic demand for energy drinks is driven by social competition and the need for energy replenishment, with significant consumption among "new blue-collar" workers, white-collar professionals, and students [2] - In the overseas market, the energy drink industry is transitioning from a focus on basic functionality to health-oriented, differentiated functions, and diverse flavors, as evidenced by the rise of Celsius in the U.S. market [2] Group 3: Main Raw Materials - Taurine prices are expected to remain low due to oversupply, with the beverage industry being the largest application market, accounting for 45% of global taurine consumption [3] - Sugar prices are also projected to stay relatively low, with a total sugar production of 11.7 million tons in China for the 2025/26 season, indicating a shift from inventory reduction to accumulation [3] Group 4: Development Trends - Health has become a core product trend, with 67.87% of consumers expressing a need to control sugar intake, prompting Dongpeng to launch a sugar-free energy drink by 2025 [4] - Consumption scenarios are evolving from high-intensity physical exertion to more frequent, lighter cognitive demands, with Dongpeng's sugar-free version targeting brain fatigue relief [4]
中泰证券:健康化与场景细分引领能量饮料新增长 重点推荐东鹏饮料(605499.SH)
智通财经网· 2025-12-16 01:50
Core Viewpoint - The energy drink industry is transitioning from a rigid demand for energy replenishment to a focus on health and scenario segmentation, with Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) positioned as a leading brand by introducing sugar-free products to meet core consumer needs [1] Group 1: Industry Development Overview - By 2025, the Chinese energy drink market is expected to reach a scale of 62.785 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, and a sales volume of 4.1899 million kiloliters, reflecting a stable growth trend [1] - Dongpeng Beverage holds a market share of 39.87% in the first half of 2025, leading the industry amid intensified competition and ongoing low-price promotions [1] - The average price in the industry is projected to decrease by 1.89% year-on-year to 14.98 yuan per liter, with Dongpeng's pricing strategy focusing on low prices and large packaging [1] Group 2: Underlying Logic of Industry Development - Domestic demand for energy drinks is driven by social competition and the need for energy replenishment, with the consumer base expanding to include "new blue-collar" workers, white-collar professionals, and students [2] - In the overseas market, the energy drink industry is evolving from a focus on basic functionality to health-oriented, differentiated functions, and diverse flavors, as evidenced by Celsius's market share growth from 1.7% to 13.7% between 2021 and 2025 [2] Group 3: Main Raw Materials - Taurine prices are expected to remain low due to overcapacity, with the beverage industry being the largest application market, accounting for 45% of global taurine consumption [3] - Sugar prices are under pressure due to supply and demand changes, with China's sugar production projected at 11.7 million tons for the 2025/26 season, leading to a market shift from destocking to inventory accumulation [3] Group 4: Development Trends - Health has become a core product trend, with 67.87% of consumers expressing a need to control sugar intake, prompting Dongpeng to launch a sugar-free energy drink by 2025 [4] - Consumption scenarios are shifting from high-intensity physical exertion to more frequent, lighter cognitive demands, with Dongpeng's sugar-free version incorporating new ingredients to address brain fatigue [4]