Core Viewpoint - The Chinese baking market is experiencing a shift from independent bakeries to new retail channels such as supermarkets and convenience stores, indicating a change in consumer demand despite stable market demand [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2024, the number of baking stores in China saw a net growth of nearly zero, with 92,000 new stores and 91,000 closures, highlighting a stagnation in traditional bakery growth [1]. - New retail channels are showcasing strong sales, with examples including Sam's Club's Swiss roll sales exceeding 1 billion yuan, Hema's strawberry box cake generating 200 million yuan in seasonal sales, and Pang Donglai's mooncake sales estimated at 200 million yuan [1]. Group 2: International Comparisons - The trends observed in the Chinese baking market are not unique but are part of a broader global phenomenon influenced by the development of industrial food technology and rapid market expansion [4]. - Mature baking markets in Japan, South Korea, Europe, and North America have established stable supermarket baking models that meet consumer needs while continuously creating popular products [5]. Group 3: Asian Market Insights - Japan and South Korea serve as benchmarks in the Asian baking market, characterized by high-frequency purchases and a preference for soft bread, with a supply chain model centered around short shelf-life products [6]. - The emphasis on freshness is a common principle in Japanese and Korean supermarkets, supported by a mature "factory collaboration + regional distribution" system [7]. Group 4: Consumer Preferences - In Japan, 82.8% of consumers prefer to buy bread from supermarkets, while in South Korea, this figure is 76%, indicating a strong consumer preference for supermarket-bought baked goods [11]. - Health considerations have become essential, with products like "no added sugar toast" and "low GI whole grain bread" dominating sales in Japan and South Korea [12]. Group 5: North American Market Characteristics - The U.S. baking market is characterized by family-oriented consumption, with supermarkets catering to bulk purchases and family needs, leading to a unique model of large packaging and high cost-effectiveness [23]. - Supermarkets in the U.S. account for approximately 70% of total bread sales, with a focus on stable quality and low prices, although they lack the innovative marketing strategies seen in Japanese convenience stores [30]. Group 6: European Market Trends - The European baking market is projected to reach $157.36 billion by 2025, with supermarkets contributing approximately 60%-70% of sales, reflecting a high dependency on supermarket channels [31]. - Different countries in Europe have tailored their baking strategies based on local consumer preferences, with Germany focusing on cost control through self-owned factories and local ingredients [33]. Group 7: Strategic Recommendations for China - Chinese supermarkets and chain brands can learn from international practices by adopting strategies such as fine segmentation, local sourcing, and fresh product delivery to enhance consumer trust and satisfaction [42][43]. - Emphasizing family-oriented products and transparent labeling can help build consumer confidence and cater to local market demands [44][46].

持续赢得消费者信赖背后，是海天始终践行的"用户至上"理念。海天以创新驱动，精准回应市场升级需求，目前已建立起覆盖酱油、蚝油、酱料等超1000个 SKU的产品矩阵，横跨全价格带与全功能带，有效穿透消费圈层，精准适配全国不同区域和不同饮食习惯的多元需求。 转自：海天味业 【新华企业资讯8月22日】8月21日，Worldpanel消费者指数（在中国隶属于CTR）发布《2025品牌足迹报告》。调味品行业领军企业海天味业再次荣登中国 消费者十大首选品牌榜单，位列总榜第四位。海天已连续11年登上该榜，8年蝉联前四位，并稳居调味品首位。 2025年报告显示，海天"消费者触及数"达7.54亿，较上年增长2160万，并连续三年保持超过80%的高渗透率，显著领先于行业平均水平。这也意味着，平均 每10个中国家庭就有8个以上选择海天。 在持续巩固酱油、蚝油、酱料等核心品类优势的基础上，海天积极捕捉消费趋势变化，不断推陈出新。为顺应健康化潮流，企业陆续推出有机系列、减盐减 糖、铁强化、无麸质等健康类产品累计达1200余款。这些产品在保留传统中式风味的同时，切实契合低糖、低盐、低脂等现代健康诉求，获得市场广泛认 可。特别是2024年上 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese soft drink industry has undergone three major development stages: dominance of carbonated drinks, diversified growth, and structural growth [1][2] - The current competitive landscape is intense, with traditional leaders maintaining advantages while emerging segments are also making significant breakthroughs [2][3] - Future trends indicate a shift towards health-oriented and functional products, with high growth potential in bottled water, sugar-free tea, and energy drinks [3][4] Historical Overview - The industry initially saw the dominance of carbonated drinks until the mid-1990s, led by international giants like Coca-Cola and Pepsi [1] - From 1995 to 2014, the market diversified with local brands emerging and consumer demand for various categories increasing [1] - Since 2015, the rise of the middle class has led to differentiated consumption demands, with bottled water and functional drinks continuing to grow [1] Current Landscape - Major players are leveraging "big product iteration and scene penetration" to build competitive advantages, with significant single products emerging in various segments [2] - Key players in bottled water include Nongfu Spring and Master Kong, with respective market sizes of 16 billion and 12.1 billion [2] - The energy drink segment is led by brands like Red Bull and Dongpeng, with market sizes of 20 billion and 13.3 billion respectively [2] Future Trends - The bottled water packaging rate in China is expected to rise from 14.4% in 2023 to 18.9% by 2028, indicating a clear long-term growth trajectory [3] - The sugar-free tea segment is seeing significant growth, with brands like Dongfang Shuye achieving over 10 billion in market size [3] - Energy drinks are expanding into Southeast Asia, with local partnerships being crucial for market penetration [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring are recommended for their strong positions in high-growth segments [4] - The focus is on companies that can adapt to health and functional trends while maintaining strong single product capabilities [4] - Attention is also drawn to potential investments in China Resources Beverage and IFBH due to their emerging market presence [4]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·食品饮料 食品饮料行业深度报告 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；食品安全问题；市场竞争加剧。 2025 年 08 月 21 日 证券分析师 苏铖 执业证书：S0600524120010 such@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 郭晓东 执业证书：S0600525040001 guoxd@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 26% 2024/8/21 2024/12/20 2025/4/20 2025/8/19 食品饮料 沪深300 软饮料行业深度：后来居上，中国软饮料巨 头的平台化之路 相关研究 《硬折扣系列报告：机遇窗口期，百 舸争流》 2025-07-24 《2025Q2 基金食品饮料持仓分析：持 仓处于低位，白酒明显减配》 2025-07-22 东吴证券研究所 1 / 34 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 观过往：历经三大阶段，品类多元化共振。纵向复盘中国软饮料行业的 发展，大致经历了碳酸饮料主导、多元化增长、结构性增长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Master Kong's revenue declined by 2.7% in the first half of 2025, indicating a situation of "profit growth without revenue growth," with both instant noodle and beverage businesses experiencing a downturn, prompting the company and competitors to seek innovation, with health-oriented products becoming a new direction [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Master Kong reported revenue of 40.092 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.109 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, marking a 2.7% decline, the first revenue drop in five years [2][3]. - Instant noodle revenue was 13.465 billion yuan, down 2.5% year-on-year, selling 349 million yuan less than in 2024 [2][4]. - Beverage revenue was 26.359 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.6%, accounting for 65.7% of total revenue [4]. - Net profit for the first half of 2025 was 2.271 billion yuan, an increase of 20.46% year-on-year, but this was partly due to non-recurring income, which, if excluded, would reduce the net profit growth rate to around 17% [3][4]. Market Trends - The instant noodle market is experiencing its coldest winter in 20 years, with consumption dropping by 4 billion packs from 2020 to 2023, and expected to fall to 43.8 billion packs in 2024 [2]. - The rise of new consumer preferences for healthier and more convenient food options is impacting traditional instant noodle sales, with a significant increase in pre-prepared meals and self-heating hot pot products [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - Master Kong's performance is lagging behind its competitor, Uni-President, which achieved double-digit growth in both revenue and profit in the same period [4]. - The company has adjusted its pricing strategy, increasing the suggested retail price of its instant noodles, which has led to a rise in gross margin by 0.7 percentage points to 27.8% [7][8]. Distribution Network - Master Kong's distribution network has contracted, with a reduction of 12.6% in the number of distributors by the end of 2024, and a further decrease in the first half of 2025 [7][8]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its distribution strategy to enhance profitability, targeting higher-quality distributors [8]. Innovation and Future Direction - To adapt to changing consumer preferences, Master Kong is introducing healthier product lines, including non-fried noodles and premium offerings [9]. - The rise of health-conscious consumers presents an opportunity for innovation in the instant noodle sector, with a growing market for health-oriented instant noodle products [9][10].

面对这场深度变革，零食企业该如何把握创新方向？行业未来的增长机会在哪里？ 分享嘉宾 张葛建，大中华区合伙人及董事总经理，沙利文 当前，零食与烘焙行业正经历从"浅水区"到"深水区"的深度变革。 过去依靠微创新即可获利的时代已经结束，随着居民健康意识提升、Z世代成为消费主力，以及下沉市场潜力释放，零食行业正从单纯的"好 吃"向"吃好"转变。与此同时，量贩渠道崛起、国潮文化盛行等外部因素，正在重塑零食品类的价值边界。 在此背景下，行业竞争逻辑正在重构：过去以口味创新和渠道铺货为主的增长模式面临挑战，取而代之的是"产品创新+场景挖掘+价值传 递"的全新竞争维度。 张葛建，大中华区合伙人及董事总经理，沙利文 零食烘焙这一品类正在进入深水区。 曾经，零食烘焙市场处于浅水区时，大鱼小鱼共存，竞争也没有像现在这么激烈，即便是微创新都能够为企业或者品牌带来不错的收益。 如今，当市场卷向深水区，企业的创新则需要更加深入，企业家也要更有魄力，为了推出新品或爆品需要有一定的牺牲精神。如果推新不得 当，有可能让一家企业就此在深水区中淘汰。 但即便是身处深水区，也有创新表现突出的企业，比如农夫山泉的东方树叶，现在已经是年销百亿级别的爆品 ...

Group 1 - The kitchen is evolving from a simple cooking space to an important area for emotional connection and relaxation, leading to increased demand for high-quality kitchen appliances [2] - Mars has positioned itself as a leading brand in high-end kitchen appliances, focusing on integrated stoves and dishwashers [2][7] - The Mars Q60 integrated stove features unique technology for oil fume control, combining low air intake design with high airflow hardware [2] Group 2 - The Q60 integrated stove integrates multiple cooking functions such as steaming, baking, frying, and stewing into one device, catering to modern cooking needs [2] - The oil fume handling technology of the Q60 is inspired by the feeding patterns of whales, effectively capturing and removing oil fumes from cooking [2] - The Mars D75 integrated dishwasher addresses the need for large capacity cleaning and high-temperature sterilization, accommodating up to 109 standard dishes [5] Group 3 - The D75 dishwasher features a flat-layer design and is capable of deep cleaning fruits and vegetables, utilizing 16 directional spray nozzles for gentle yet effective cleaning [5] - The kitchen appliance industry is trending towards high-end and smart solutions, with Mars gaining a competitive advantage in this evolving market [7] - The Q60 integrated stove and D75 integrated dishwasher have become trusted companions for many households, enhancing the overall kitchen experience [7]

Core Insights - The ice tea market is evolving from a brand-centric approach to a category-focused one, with various brands like Yuanqi Forest and Nongfu Spring entering the market to redefine product standards through differentiated technology [1][2][3] - Health consciousness among consumers is driving the trend towards reduced sugar content in beverages, with 71.4% of consumers prioritizing "sugar-free/reduced sugar" labels when purchasing iced tea [2][3] - The global iced tea market is projected to grow from $53.3 billion in 2023 to over $100 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.7% [6][9] Industry Trends - The Chinese government has initiated health promotion policies focusing on reducing sugar, salt, and oil in food, signaling a shift towards healthier beverage options [2][3] - Traditional brands like Master Kong and Uni-President leverage established distribution networks, while new brands utilize innovative technologies and health-focused marketing to capture younger consumers [6][9] - The competition in the iced tea market is intensifying, with both established and emerging brands striving to balance health benefits with taste, as consumer preferences shift towards lower sugar options [4][5][10] Consumer Preferences - Taste remains a critical factor in consumer purchasing decisions, with sweetness, tea flavor, and aroma being the top three attributes valued by iced tea drinkers [4][5] - Younger consumers (ages 18-25) exhibit higher loyalty and repurchase rates for iced tea, particularly valuing a rich and balanced flavor profile [4][5] - Brands are responding to consumer demand for reduced sugar without compromising taste, with innovations such as Yuanqi Forest's use of liquid nitrogen freezing technology to enhance flavor [5][9] Competitive Landscape - New brands are differentiating themselves through unique formulations and health claims, such as Hao Wang Shui's electrolyte-infused iced tea targeting fitness enthusiasts [9][10] - Yuanqi Forest has reported a 53.9% year-on-year sales growth in its iced tea category, indicating strong market acceptance and brand recognition [9][10] - The market is characterized by a clear segmentation, with traditional brands maintaining a stronghold through extensive distribution while new entrants challenge them with innovative products [6][9]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company has a solid foundation in the instant noodle market, with a strong position in the high-end segment, and is leveraging overseas expansion for new growth [1][2]. - The company is experiencing a recovery in revenue and profit, driven by continuous product innovation and effective marketing strategies [2][3]. - The financial outlook is positive, with expected earnings per share (EPS) growth from 0.27 to 0.34 HKD from 2025 to 2027, indicating a resilient business model [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been a pioneer in the instant noodle industry since its establishment in 1984, defining global standards and leading the high-quality instant meal trend [1][17]. - It has a concentrated ownership structure, with the majority shareholder holding 72.05% of the shares, ensuring efficient strategic decision-making [24]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to be 38.12 billion HKD in 2024, with a net profit of 2.07 billion HKD, reflecting stable profitability [1][3]. - The gross margin is expected to increase to 34.42% in 2024, with a recent recovery in the net profit margin to 10.45% [1][3]. - The company has maintained a stable expense ratio, indicating efficient operational management [2][30]. Industry Analysis - The instant noodle market in China has seen a slowdown in growth, with the market size reaching approximately 1240.14 billion HKD in 2024, but still presents opportunities for innovation and high-end transformation [2][46]. - The frozen food sector is entering a high-growth phase, with the market size expected to reach 2130.9 billion HKD by 2025, driven by evolving consumer preferences and improved logistics [2][46]. Investment Highlights - The core instant noodle business remains robust, while other food segments provide additional growth momentum [2][4]. - The company is effectively controlling costs and maintaining a strong cash flow, supporting consistent dividend payouts [2][3]. - The company is strategically exiting underperforming markets and focusing on Southeast Asia and Australia for expansion [21][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [3]. Core Insights - The Chinese soft drink industry is transitioning from a growth phase characterized by new product launches to a more competitive environment focused on existing products, making it challenging to cultivate new billion-dollar brands [16][39]. - The report highlights the emergence of health and functional trends in consumer preferences, which are expected to create new market opportunities for innovative products [5][17]. - The industry is witnessing a shift in growth logic from volume-driven to structural upgrades, emphasizing the need for companies to enhance product innovation and channel management capabilities to succeed [18][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The soft drink sector in China has a vast potential for nurturing billion-dollar products, with notable examples including Red Bull (23.4 billion), Dongpeng Special Drink (17.6 billion), and Wanglaoji (13.8 billion) [4][20]. - The market size for the soft drink industry reached 691.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% from 2014 to 2024 [21]. Market Trends - The report identifies a significant trend towards health and functionality in beverages, with a growing demand for low-sugar and functional drinks [5][17]. - The Japanese soft drink market's history of sugar reduction and functionalization serves as a reference for potential developments in China [17]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics have intensified, with a notable increase in product and channel homogeneity, making it harder to develop new billion-dollar products [41]. - Major players like Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Master Kong are recommended for their strong market positions and innovative capabilities [8]. Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate that the cost advantages in the industry will continue, benefiting leading companies [18]. - Long-term success will depend on companies' abilities to innovate products and refine channel strategies to capture emerging consumer demands [19].