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华凯易佰(300592):2024年及2025Q1点评:盈利能力阶段承压,存货管控轻装上阵
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-27 09:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - In 2024, the company's operating revenue is projected to reach 9 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 170 million yuan, a decline of 49% year-on-year [2][4] - For Q4 2024, the company anticipates operating revenue of 2.91 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64%, but a net loss attributable to the parent company of 19.12 million yuan, a decline of 158% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q1 2025, the company expects operating revenue of 2.292 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 35%, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of 15 million yuan, a decline of 118% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a significant revenue increase due to successful new channel expansions, with a notable contribution from the acquisition of Tongtuo Technology, which added 1.31 billion yuan to revenue [11] - The net profit decline is attributed to inventory impairment and increased investments in new channels, with the net profit from Yibai Network decreasing by 28% year-on-year [11] - Q4 2024 saw a net loss due to high inventory levels and increased sales expenses, with a gross margin decline of 3.5 percentage points [11] - Q1 2025 continues to face pressure on profits, but inventory levels are decreasing, indicating potential for improved profitability in the future [11] Future Outlook - The company is expected to alleviate inventory pressure in Q1 2025, which may lead to improved profitability moving forward [11] - The management is implementing more refined strategies for new channel investments, which could gradually reduce expense ratios as scale effects materialize [11] - Forecasted net profits for the company are projected to be 320 million yuan, 380 million yuan, and 490 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]