核心观点 公司点评 · 食品饮料行业 主要财务指标预测 成本回落与旺季催化，关注底部修复机会 —— 公司动态报告 2025 年 12 月 29 日 洽洽食品（股票代码：002557） 推荐 维持评级 分析师 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 7,131 | 6,876 | 7,353 | 7,777 | | 收入增长率% | 4.79 | -3.59 | 6.95 | 5.75 | | 归母净利润(百万元) | 849 | 385 | 655 | 769 | | 利润增长率% | 5.82 | -54.63 | 69.88 | 17.52 | | 毛利率% | 28.78 | 22.10 | 26.46 | 26.83 | | 摊薄 EPS(元) | 1.68 | 0.76 | 1.29 | 1.52 | | PE | 13.10 | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating, indicating a positive outlook for the company compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The company's profitability is continuously improving, driven by new channels and scenarios contributing to growth [1]. - The company has a well-established brand in the food and beverage industry, with a diversified product range including rice snacks, dairy beverages, and leisure foods [3]. - The company is actively expanding its marketing efforts and enhancing brand recognition through innovative advertising and product development [48]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 240.5 billion, RMB 246.5 billion, and RMB 252.7 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 2.3%, 2.5%, and 2.5% respectively [49]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 41.7 billion, RMB 44.1 billion, and RMB 46.1 billion, with changes of -3.8%, +5.7%, and +4.6% respectively [49]. - The diluted EPS is expected to be RMB 0.35, RMB 0.37, and RMB 0.39 for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [49]. Business Segments - The dairy beverage segment is expected to grow steadily, contributing over 50% of total revenue, with a projected CAGR of approximately 3.7% from FY2018 to FY2024 [4]. - The rice snack business is anticipated to recover growth driven by new products and channels, with expected revenue growth rates of 3.5%, 2%, and 2% for FY2025-2027 [4]. - The leisure food segment, particularly candy, is projected to grow at rates of 5%, 4%, and 4% for FY2025-2027, benefiting from strong demand [4]. Market Dynamics - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a shift towards health-conscious products, with the dairy beverage market expected to reach RMB 1,697 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 4.65% [25]. - The candy market is entering a low-growth phase, with expected growth rates stabilizing between 2% and 3% in the coming years [19]. - The overall market for leisure foods is projected to reach RMB 605.8 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 4.4% [13]. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented measures to control raw material costs and optimize operational efficiency, leading to an expected EBIT margin of 23.8%, 23.9%, and 24.1% for FY2025-2027 [5]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve due to cost reductions in raw materials, particularly full-fat milk powder, which has seen a significant price decline [37][39]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on expanding new channels and enhancing marketing strategies to drive brand growth, including leveraging e-commerce and innovative product placements [41][47]. - The company has established overseas operations, with a factory in Vietnam contributing to growth in the Southeast Asian market [47].

证券代码：002507 证券简称：涪陵榨菜 编号：2025-020 投资者关系活 动类别 □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 □路演活动 ☑ 现场参观 其他 参与单位名称 及人员姓名 本次参与交流的人员名单如下： 序号 姓名 机构 1 王尧 中金公司 2 李茗蕙 中金公司 3 李彦诚 东证资管 时间 2025 年 12 月 24 日 14:00-15:30 地点 2025 年 12 月 24 日 14:00-15:30 在公司重庆分部会议室现场交流 上市公司参会 人员 公司董事、董事会秘书、副总经理兼财务负责人：韦永生 投资者关系活 动主要内容介 绍 本次会议纪要如下： 1、并购味滋美的考虑。 回复：拓品类是公司中长期发展规划的重要举措，公司拟通过并购方 式切入复合调味料赛道。味滋美作为主营 B 端的复调企业，在针对 B 端的 产品与渠道均相对成熟，同时其正在推出 C 端产品，公司的 C 端渠道优势 能够支持味滋美 C 端产品快速入市，若并购成功，公司与味滋美将在产品 品类及渠道上达成互补双赢；后续经过双方对收购协议对价等核心条款商 讨，双方未达成一致意见，并购项目无法继续开 ...

Group 1: Business Highlights - The company achieved a strategic breakthrough by entering the Sam's Club system, enhancing brand reputation and premium capability [1] - The snack food business experienced year-on-year growth, with products sold in multiple mainstream snack channels [1] Group 2: Revenue Sources and Growth Strategies - Hot pot meatballs remain the core revenue source, but the company is diversifying into prepared dishes, snacks, baked goods, and abalone processing to ensure sustainable growth [1] - The proportion of hot pot meatballs in overall revenue has decreased as the diversified business matrix continues to form new support for steady development [1] Group 3: Overseas Sales and Market Expansion - Overseas revenue has shown significant growth, although it still represents a relatively low percentage of total revenue; efforts are ongoing to expand international sales through a Hong Kong subsidiary and enhanced overseas customer development [2] - The company plans to deepen existing advantageous channels while focusing on key potential channels such as special channels, catering, enterprises, and snack wholesalers to expand market coverage and improve terminal penetration [4] Group 4: Seasonal Trends and Competitive Strategies - Historically, the fourth quarter is a peak sales season driven by traditional demand and pre-Spring Festival stocking [3] - The company will not engage in purely price competition but will adopt strategic measures such as optimizing product mix, strengthening product-channel differentiation, and enhancing operational efficiency to balance market share and profit levels [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's profit slightly exceeded expectations, with new products and channels progressing smoothly [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 11.37 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 0.95 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3% [8] - The company has shifted from channel-driven to product-driven strategies, focusing on research and development innovation to reduce price competition [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 14,045 million, with a year-on-year growth of 15.29% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is projected at 1,478 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.24% [1] - The company expects a decline in net profit for 2025E to 1,395 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.08% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 20.0%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points [8] - The company completed the acquisition of 70% of Jiangsu Dingweitai Food Co., adding 32.12 million in revenue from baked goods [8] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for total revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 15,767 million, 16,536 million, and 17,264 million respectively, with growth rates of 4.23%, 4.88%, and 4.40% [1] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 to 2027 is 1,395 million, 1,594 million, and 1,742 million respectively, with growth rates of -6%, +14%, and +9% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025E is projected at 4.18 [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 21.63 billion with a year-on-year growth of 6% and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.32 billion, reflecting a 10.5% increase year-on-year [1] - The third quarter revenue was 6.4 billion, showing a 2.5% year-on-year growth, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.41 billion, up 3.4% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the company achieved revenue of 21.63 billion, with a net profit of 5.32 billion and a non-recurring net profit of 5.16 billion, marking increases of 10.5% and 11.7% respectively [1] - The third quarter saw a revenue of 6.4 billion and a net profit of 1.41 billion, with non-recurring net profit at 1.34 billion, indicating year-on-year growth of 3.4% and 3.9% respectively [1] Market Conditions - The revenue growth in the third quarter slowed down, primarily due to pressure on consumer demand and intensified competition, as well as restrictions in dining scenarios [2] - The three main product categories—soy sauce, oyster sauce, and seasoning sauce—generated revenues of 11.16 billion, 3.63 billion, and 2.23 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 6%, and 10% [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for the third quarter was 39.63%, an increase of 3% year-on-year, attributed to declining costs [3] - The sales and management expense ratios were 7.43% and 3.43%, reflecting increases of 1.85% and 1% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The net profit margin for the third quarter was 22%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating stable profitability [3] Investment Outlook - The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 7.04 billion, 7.8 billion, and 8.57 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 10.8%, and 9.9% respectively [1] - The latest closing price corresponds to price-to-earnings ratios of 32x, 29x, and 26x for 2025-2027, with a maintained "buy" rating [1] Strategic Developments - The company has exceeded expectations in expanding new channels, which could serve as a catalyst for stock price changes [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zhou Hei Ya International Holdings Limited reported significant growth in its mid-year performance for 2025, with total revenue reaching 1.223 billion yuan and net profit of 108 million yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 228.0% in profitability [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The average single-store output increased by 15.5% year-on-year, indicating a notable improvement in store operational quality [2] - Following the earnings release, several leading brokerages raised their target prices or investment ratings, reflecting confidence in the company's store reform effectiveness and future growth potential [1][2] Group 2: Operational Strategies - Zhou Hei Ya focused on enhancing single-store operational quality by optimizing service processes and consumer experiences, which strengthened store profitability [1] - The company expanded consumption scenarios by involving frontline staff in live-streaming sales, effectively converting online traffic to offline sales [1] - New product launches, including flavored duck products and regional specialties, aligned with consumer demand for diversity and personalization, driving store traffic and sales growth [1][2] Group 3: Market Expansion - Zhou Hei Ya actively developed its distribution channels outside of its own, elevating this to a strategic priority as a second growth curve [2] - Collaborations with major retailers like Sam's Club and Yonghui Supermarket were established to create customized products, effectively broadening consumption scenarios [2] - The company accelerated its expansion into Southeast Asia, leveraging new products to diversify its offerings and open up broader revenue growth opportunities [2] Group 4: Analyst Ratings - Citigroup maintained a "Buy" rating and raised the target price from 2.66 HKD to 2.7 HKD, forecasting a net profit of 211 million yuan for 2025 due to improved store efficiency and new business initiatives [2] - Credit Lyonnais emphasized that over 80% of stores are now profitable, shifting the operational focus towards store upgrades and cross-channel expansion, raising the target price from 2.3 HKD to 2.8 HKD [3] - Other brokerages, including China International Capital Corporation and Guoyuan International, also issued reports with "Buy" ratings, highlighting the company's refined operations and growth strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - Zhou Hei Ya reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational improvements and growth potential in the market [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 1.223 billion yuan and a net profit of 108 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 228% [1][2]. - The net profit margin increased by 6.2 percentage points to 8.8%, exceeding market expectations [2]. Operational Improvements - Zhou Hei Ya focused on enhancing single-store operational quality, optimizing service processes, and improving customer experience, which contributed to increased store profitability [2]. - Average single-store output grew by 15.5% year-on-year, reflecting significant improvements in store operations [3]. Product and Market Strategy - The company launched new products such as marinated duck and squid, catering to consumer demand for diversity and personalization, which helped drive store traffic and sales [2][3]. - Zhou Hei Ya is expanding its distribution channels and has formed strategic partnerships with major retailers like Sam's Club and Yonghui, enhancing its market presence [3]. Analyst Ratings and Market Outlook - Following the earnings report, several leading brokerages raised their target prices and investment ratings for Zhou Hei Ya, citing improvements in store efficiency and new channel expansions [4][5]. - Citigroup raised its target price from 2.66 HKD to 2.7 HKD, predicting a net profit of 211 million yuan for the full year 2025 [4]. - Other firms, including CICC and Guoyuan International, also expressed optimism about the company's growth strategies and market leadership in the marinated food sector [5].

Core Viewpoint - Zhou Hei Ya reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, indicating strong operational improvements and growth potential in the future [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 1.223 billion yuan and a net profit of 108 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 228% [1][2]. - The net profit margin increased by 6.2 percentage points to 8.8%, exceeding market expectations [2]. Operational Improvements - Zhou Hei Ya focused on enhancing single-store operational quality, optimizing service processes, and improving customer experience, which contributed to increased store profitability [2]. - Average single-store output grew by 15.5% year-on-year, reflecting significant improvements in store operations [3]. Product and Market Strategy - The company launched new products such as marinated duck and squid, catering to consumer demand for diversity and personalization, which helped drive store traffic and sales [2]. - Zhou Hei Ya is expanding its distribution channels and has formed strategic partnerships with major retailers like Sam's Club and Yonghui, enhancing its market presence [3]. Analyst Ratings and Market Outlook - Following the earnings report, several leading brokerages raised their target prices and investment ratings, indicating strong confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4][5]. - Citigroup maintained a "Buy" rating and raised the target price from 2.66 HKD to 2.7 HKD, forecasting a net profit of 211 million yuan for the full year 2025 [4]. - Other firms, including CICC and Guoyuan International, also expressed optimism about Zhou Hei Ya's strategic initiatives and market leadership in the marinated food sector [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Viewpoints - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.223 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 108 million, a year-on-year increase of 228.0% [2][4] - As of the end of June 2025, the total number of stores reached 2,864, including 1,573 self-operated stores and 1,291 franchised stores, covering 292 cities across 28 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China [2][4] - The average store efficiency for self-operated stores improved by 11.6% year-on-year, while the average revenue contribution per franchised store increased by 13.8% [8] - The company implemented four core strategies to enhance store efficiency: empowering staff, deepening private domain marketing, comprehensive traffic attraction, and extending operating hours [8] - The company reduced the number of stores by 167 in the first half of 2025, with self-operated stores decreasing by 9.3% and franchised stores decreasing by 25.0% year-on-year [8] - The gross profit margin increased by approximately 3.2 percentage points to 58.6% year-on-year, driven by improved store operation quality and supply chain efficiency [8] - Revenue from channels other than self-operated, franchised, and online sales grew by 27.5% year-on-year, indicating new growth points in retail and overseas channels [8] - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders of 200 million, 230 million, and 266 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, corresponding to current price-to-earnings ratios of 22, 19, and 17 [8]