Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for public pension FOFs, particularly those with low volatility and stable returns [2][3][19]. Core Insights - The public pension FOF market in China has shown significant growth, with a total scale of 244 billion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting an increase of over 80% compared to the previous year [2][8]. - The report highlights the trend of public pension FOFs embracing passive investment strategies and diversifying asset classes to achieve absolute returns [1][3]. - The analysis of historical performance reveals that certain pension FOFs exhibit low volatility and strong stability, achieving absolute return characteristics [3][19]. Summary by Sections Public Pension FOF Market Overview - As of the end of 2025, there are 545 public pension FOF products with a total scale of 244 billion yuan, marking an increase of approximately 110 billion yuan from 2024 [2][8]. - Among these, the mixed bond FOF category dominates with a scale of about 150 billion yuan, indicating a preference for low-volatility products among investors [2][8]. Performance Analysis of Pension FOFs - Recent years have seen public pension FOFs continuously optimizing their investment frameworks, with some products demonstrating stable and excellent performance [3][7]. - Notable pension FOFs, such as the Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target FOF, have shown a Sharpe ratio exceeding 2.5 and a maximum drawdown below 1% during the observed period [3][21]. Case Study: Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target FOF - The Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target FOF (A share code: 019665) has diversified its asset allocation across U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, gold, and bonds, achieving a high investment success rate [4][27]. - The fund manager's accurate macroeconomic assessments and asset allocation strategies have contributed to its stable performance, with a maximum drawdown of only 0.88% [22][24]. - The fund's asset allocation strategy includes a significant portion in cash during uncertain market conditions, effectively controlling risk during market shocks [27][31]. Fund Selection and Performance Metrics - The report identifies several pension FOFs with low risk and stable performance, focusing on those with a high Sharpe ratio and consistent positive returns [17][19]. - The analysis includes metrics such as annualized returns, volatility, and maximum drawdown, emphasizing the importance of consistent performance in varying market conditions [19][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing demand for stable asset allocation due to ongoing volatility in the equity market and declining yields in traditional fixed-income assets [1][2][4][61] - The major broad-based indices (CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) have experienced multiple annual drawdowns exceeding 10% since 2020, with maximum drawdowns generally exceeding 35%, indicating a high level of market volatility [2][61] - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased from 3.14% at the end of 2020 to 1.65% by mid-2025, creating significant pressure on traditional fixed-income products and prompting institutions to seek diversified asset allocation [4][61] Group 2 - The implementation of asset management regulations in 2018 has broken the rigid repayment mechanism, prohibiting guaranteed returns and promoting net value management, which has led to a transformation in the asset management industry [6][10][12] - The personal pension system was established in 2022, leading to a significant expansion of target funds, with the number of target date FOFs increasing from 44 in 2020 to 119 by 2025, and target risk FOFs growing from 52 to 154 in the same period [13][14][62] - Current target risk and mixed bond FOFs show room for improvement in drawdown control, with only 3.50% of target risk FOFs and 10.71% of mixed bond FOFs managing to keep maximum drawdowns under 1% [17][62] Group 3 - The "Invesco Great Wall Conservative Pension Target One-Year Holding" (Fund Code: 019665.OF) is a target risk FOF fund launched on March 20, 2024, with a current scale of 358 million yuan as of Q2 2025 [21][63] - The fund has achieved a cumulative return of 6.66% since inception, with a one-year return of 5.13% and a maximum drawdown of only 0.88%, indicating strong performance in terms of risk-adjusted returns [31][63] - The fund employs a diversified asset allocation strategy, combining strategic and tactical approaches, and focuses on risk control and volatility management to achieve stable returns [25][64]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: 景顺长城保守养老目标一年持有 A - **Model Construction Idea**: The fund aims to achieve long-term stable growth of pension assets through diversified asset allocation and fund selection, focusing on risk control and volatility management[32][34] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation**: The fund uses a two-layer asset allocation model to control portfolio risk and strive to exceed benchmark returns. Strategic allocation is based on risk budget, while tactical allocation dynamically adjusts asset proportions based on macroeconomic, technical, and market sentiment factors[35] - **Quantitative and Qualitative Fund Selection**: The fund combines quantitative and qualitative methods to select outstanding fund managers and fund varieties within each asset class. This involves continuous tracking and evaluation to form a fund pool and construct a fund-of-funds portfolio[36][38] - **Risk Control Strategy**: Daily tracking of portfolio performance, regular position analysis, and stress testing. Adjustments are made when there are deviations in sub-fund styles, manager changes, or better alternatives[39] - **Bond, Stock, and Hong Kong Stock Connect Investment Strategy**: For bond investments, the fund manager determines duration and asset allocation based on macroeconomic and interest rate forecasts. For stocks and Hong Kong Stock Connect stocks, the focus is on fundamental research and valuation assessment[39] - **Model Evaluation**: The fund has demonstrated effective risk control and stable net value, with a maximum drawdown of less than 1% during periods of market volatility[40][41] Model Backtest Results - **景顺长城保守养老目标一年持有 A**: - **Annualized Return**: 5.13%[41] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.88%[41] - **Net Value Volatility**: 1.70%[43] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 2.94[41] - **Calmar Ratio**: 5.81[41] - **Probability of Positive Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 100%[44] - **Minimum Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 0.43%[44] - **Maximum Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 2.58%[44] - **Longest Duration Without New High**: 41 days[44] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: 宏观经济指标 - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects the performance of macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy, fiscal policy, and industrial production[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Selection of relevant indicators to form a comprehensive scoring model based on factor signals, which ranks assets and dynamically adjusts asset allocation proportions[35][38] Factor Name: 技术指标 - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects market factors such as capital flows, asset price volatility, and price trends[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Similar to macroeconomic indicators, relevant technical indicators are selected to form a comprehensive scoring model based on factor signals[35][38] Factor Name: 市场情绪指标 - **Factor Construction Idea**: Reflects market sentiment through trading data and implied volatility[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: Selection of relevant sentiment indicators to form a comprehensive scoring model based on factor signals[35][38] Factor Backtest Results - **景顺长城保守养老目标一年持有 A**: - **Annualized Return**: 5.13%[41] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.88%[41] - **Net Value Volatility**: 1.70%[43] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 2.94[41] - **Calmar Ratio**: 5.81[41] - **Probability of Positive Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 100%[44] - **Minimum Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 0.43%[44] - **Maximum Return for 3-Month Holding Period**: 2.58%[44] - **Longest Duration Without New High**: 41 days[44]