总支付额（TPV）同比增长 7.4%，较第二季度的 5.4% 有所反弹，但仍低于去年同期的 9%； 交易收入同比增长 6.4%，与 2024 财年第三季度的 6.2% 基本持平； 来源：美股研究社 整体来看，第三季度业绩略呈积极态势，净营收增速持续回升： 目前，利润率并非PayPal的优先目标，公司仍在钱包、先买后付、AI 代理等高增长领域投入大量资 金。 管理层希望投资者更多关注 "交易边际美元"（净营收减去交易费用及交易与贷款损失），该指标第三 季度同比增长 5.9%，环比低于第二季度的 6.5%。 在第三季度财报电话会议中，管理层提到该指标已达到此前指引区间的上限，并重申长期目标是实现高 个位数增长 —— 但相较于 2024 财年 7% 的同比增速，这并不意味着增长拐点即将到来。 此外，PayPal宣布将启动股息发放，目标股息支付率为净利润的 10%。 2025 财年第三季度，PayPal 44% 的总收入来自国际市场，2025 年其在线支付全球市场份额接近 45%。 在德国，多数在线商店使用PayPal，为其贡献了大量国际品牌支付额。 今年 8 月，PayPal在德国遭遇服务中断，欺诈交易激增导致德国 ...

Core Viewpoint - PayPal's stock price initially surged 15% due to news of collaboration with OpenAI, but the momentum faded quickly after the third-quarter earnings report, which, despite beating expectations, did not elicit a strong market reaction [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The total payment volume (TPV) grew by 7.4% year-over-year, rebounding from 5.4% in the previous quarter but still below last year's 9% [3]. - Transaction revenue increased by 6.4%, remaining stable compared to the same quarter in the previous fiscal year [3]. - The profit margin slightly contracted quarter-over-quarter, indicating that profitability is not currently a priority for the company as it invests heavily in high-growth areas like wallets, BNPL, and AI agents [4]. Group 2: Key Metrics and Guidance - The "transaction marginal dollar" metric, which is net revenue minus transaction fees and transaction and loan losses, grew by 5.9% year-over-year but was lower than the 6.5% growth in the previous quarter [4]. - PayPal's management indicated that the transaction marginal dollar metric reached the upper limit of previous guidance, with a long-term goal of achieving high single-digit growth, which does not suggest an imminent growth inflection point [4]. - The company announced a dividend payout plan targeting a 10% payout ratio of net profits [5]. Group 3: Market Position and Challenges - In the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, 44% of PayPal's total revenue came from international markets, with a nearly 45% share of the global online payment market [6]. - A service disruption in Germany led to a spike in fraudulent transactions, impacting transaction marginal dollar growth by 1.5% [6]. - Despite raising the fiscal year 2025 guidance, the details suggest a bleak outlook for the fourth quarter, with a potential $5 billion shortfall in transaction marginal dollars and expected low single-digit year-over-year growth [6]. Group 4: Future Prospects - The collaboration with OpenAI could serve as a long-term growth catalyst, as integrating PayPal's checkout feature into ChatGPT may increase payment volumes [7]. - The launch of "smart agent commerce services" allows merchants to sell through AI platforms, but monetization of this service is expected to take time [7]. - PayPal's valuation remains low, but it has been trapped in a "value trap" for years, with core growth indicators showing no short-term growth inflection [7][8]. Group 5: Investor Sentiment - Although PayPal's valuation appears low compared to the S&P 500's dynamic P/E ratio of 23, a stock being undervalued for an extended period often reflects deteriorating fundamentals and an unclear recovery timeline [8]. - The upward revision of fiscal year 2025 guidance, driven by better-than-expected third-quarter performance, suggests a lackluster fourth-quarter outlook [9]. - PayPal requires a "blockbuster quarter" to convince investors, or else the "value trap" situation is likely to persist [9].