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经络:美联储有机会于四季度降息 届时港元拆息上升压力或缓和
智通财经网· 2025-07-31 06:08
Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened for the seventh time to buy Hong Kong dollars as the currency continues to trigger the "weak side convertibility guarantee," leading to a decrease in the banking system's surplus to HKD 82.552 billion [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The recent interventions by HKMA have caused the banking system's surplus to decline, resulting in fluctuations in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) [1] - HIBOR has been rising recently, with the one-month HIBOR reported at 1.03%, and it is expected to challenge the 1.5% level [1] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates for the first time in the fourth quarter, which could lead to capital inflows into the Hong Kong market, alleviating upward pressure on HIBOR [1] Group 2: Banking Strategies - Following the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S., there is speculation that some funds may flow into the Asia-Pacific markets, prompting Hong Kong banks to potentially lower their prime rates based on their commercial strategies [1] - HSBC announced that it would maintain its prime rate unchanged, despite having lowered it three times last year at a pace and magnitude exceeding market expectations [1] - Currently, with HIBOR at 1%, the effective interest rate for housing loans calculated at "H+1.3%" results in a rate of 2.33%, which remains 1.17% below the capped interest rate of 3.5% [1]