智通财经APP获悉，美联储凌晨宣布今年首次议息结果，维持联邦基金利率于3.5%至3.75%不变，符合 市场预期。具指标性的汇丰银行宣布维持最优惠利率(P)于5%不变，预料其他银行将陆续跟随。中原按 揭董事总经理王美凤表示，香港最优惠利率P已返回加息前最低水平，一般活期存息亦已返回零水平， 银行基本上不会单边减P的情况下相信减P周期已完成，料今年最优惠利率P维持现有处于最低水平，P 不变但年内港元拆息HIBOR有机会有所回落。 5月份美国即将有新美联储主席上任，值得留意继任者是否推动偏向较宽松政策延续减息，但预期今年 美息仍有下调空间，美息续降有利香港拆息进一步回落，虽然拆息回落步伐料温和，香港以H按为主流 的实际按息仍会处于封顶息水平3.25%一段时间，但年内拆息将有所回落有利银行纾缓资金成本，在今 年楼市向好银行按揭取态积极时期，拆息回落有利推动银行增加按揭优惠。 王美凤又指，息率不变下，目前按息主要维持于3.25%，较2024年9月减息周期前的4.125%已累积回落 0.875%，现水平已低于30年平均按息(约3.78%)，月供减幅达一成，对置业及供楼人士而言，供楼负担 已大幅纾缓。按照现时市场H按计划( ...

Core Viewpoint - The Mortgage Market Index (MMI) for December 2025 has dropped to 3.25%, marking a monthly decline of 6 basis points and a three-month consecutive decrease, reaching a five-month low [1] Group 1: Mortgage Rates - The majority of new mortgage owners are opting for H mortgage plans, with Hong Kong banks having lowered the best lending rate by a total of 0.25% in September and October last year [1] - The capped interest rate for new H mortgages has now fallen to 3.25%, leading to a corresponding decline in the MMI [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The U.S. labor market has not shown signs of accelerated deterioration, and it is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current stance in the upcoming meeting [1] - The one-month HIBOR is currently at 2.79%, and its movement will depend on U.S. interest rates and capital flows [1] Group 3: Future Projections - It is anticipated that HIBOR will fluctuate between 2% and 3% in the first half of the year, with the actual interest rate for new H mortgages expected to remain at 3.25% [1] - Should there be an influx of capital into Hong Kong, HIBOR may challenge levels below 2%, potentially allowing H mortgage owners to secure loans at rates lower than the capped interest rate, which could lead to further adjustments in the MMI [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has intervened for the seventh time to buy Hong Kong dollars as the currency continues to trigger the "weak side convertibility guarantee," leading to a decrease in the banking system's surplus to HKD 82.552 billion [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The recent interventions by HKMA have caused the banking system's surplus to decline, resulting in fluctuations in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) [1] - HIBOR has been rising recently, with the one-month HIBOR reported at 1.03%, and it is expected to challenge the 1.5% level [1] - The Federal Reserve may lower interest rates for the first time in the fourth quarter, which could lead to capital inflows into the Hong Kong market, alleviating upward pressure on HIBOR [1] Group 2: Banking Strategies - Following the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S., there is speculation that some funds may flow into the Asia-Pacific markets, prompting Hong Kong banks to potentially lower their prime rates based on their commercial strategies [1] - HSBC announced that it would maintain its prime rate unchanged, despite having lowered it three times last year at a pace and magnitude exceeding market expectations [1] - Currently, with HIBOR at 1%, the effective interest rate for housing loans calculated at "H+1.3%" results in a rate of 2.33%, which remains 1.17% below the capped interest rate of 3.5% [1]

Group 1 - The Mortgage Market Index (MMI) for May reported a significant drop to 2.8%, a decrease of 74 basis points, marking a 31-month low [1] - Over 95% of new mortgage clients opted for the H mortgage plan in May, influenced by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's market interventions, which increased the banking system's surplus to HKD 174 billion [1] - The average one-month HIBOR fell sharply to 1.47% in May from 3.65% in April, contributing to the decline in MMI and easing the mortgage burden for property buyers in Hong Kong [1] Group 2 - The latest U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was reported at 2.4%, slightly up from 2.3% in April, while the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% [2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is still under observation, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current interest rates for the time being [2] - There is a belief that if inflation remains manageable, there may be one opportunity for a rate cut in the second half of the year [2]