东兴证券预测，2024至2027年间全球白银供应年均复合增长率仅为1.2%，受矿端生产成本上升和供给 弹性下降制约；而需求端在光伏、新能源汽车和环氧乙烷催化剂等工业领域的消耗持续增长，同期需求 CAGR预计达2.9%。供需失衡将导致全球白银缺口从2025年起逐年扩大，预计2025—2027年分别达到 5347、6223和6791吨。结构性短缺叠加流动性溢价提升，支撑白银定价重心持续上移，行业有望维持高 景气周期。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，中证申万有色金属指数从沪深市场申万有色金 属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映沪深市场有色金属行业上市公司证 券的整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华友钴业、中国铝业、赣锋 锂业、山东黄金、中金黄金、天齐锂业、赤峰黄金。 2025年白银市场迎来历史性行情，截至12月中旬，伦敦现货白银价格一度突破64美元/盎司，COMEX白 银期货最高触及64.74美元/盎司，年内累计涨幅超120%，远超同期黄金约60%的涨幅，创下历史新高。 这场"白银狂潮"由供需失衡、宏观环境与资金涌入多重因素共振驱动 ...

华安证券认为，能源金属领域正迎来产能深度整合阶段，海外供给端减产信息频现，整个行业或将持续 出现减产或停产信号，碳酸锂行业已开启产能整合进程，锂价有望触底回升。 有色金属ETF(512400)紧密跟踪中证申万有色金属指数，中证申万有色金属指数从沪深市场申万有色金 属及非金属材料行业中选取50只上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映沪深市场有色金属行业上市公司证 券的整体表现。指数前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、北方稀土、华友钴业、中国铝业、赣锋 锂业、山东黄金、中金黄金、天齐锂业、赤峰黄金。 截至2025年12月17日 10:30，有色金属ETF(512400)上涨1.75%，成交2.47亿元。跟踪指数中证申万有色 金属指数强势上涨1.85%，成分股国城矿业上涨8.98%，盛新锂能上涨7.49%，中矿资源上涨6.07%，天 齐锂业，永兴材料等个股跟涨。 有色商品接力上涨，铂价年内近乎翻倍。2025年年底，有色金属市场延续强势表现，多品种价格接力上 涨，其中铂价成为领涨明星，截至12月中旬年内涨幅已达98.67%，近乎翻倍，创下近年价格新高。这 轮行情背后，是供给端持续收缩与需求端多元增长形成的紧平衡格局，叠加 ...

截至2025年12月12日 10:01，有色金属ETF(512400)上涨1.09%，成交2.47亿元。跟踪指数中证申万有色 金属指数强势上涨1.09%，成分股锡业股份上涨3.93%，中金黄金上涨3.81%，西部矿业上涨3.36%，驰 宏锌锗，金诚信等个股跟涨。 拉长时间看，截至12月11日，有色金属ETF(512400)近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入，合计净流入7.76 亿元。 近期，工业金属价格表现强劲，其中铜价受到多重因素推动显著走高。国开证券指出，2026年精炼铜市 场预计将面临供应紧张局面，在供不应求格局下，铜价具备震荡上行的基础；若美联储推行大幅宽松政 策，铜作为兼具商品与金融属性的品种，其投机价值将被放大，进一步推升价格。此外，全球三大交易 所铜库存结构变化带来逼仓风险，短期内可能引发铜价大幅冲高。 稀土价格有望迎来持续回暖。东方证券认为，供给端受国内开采配额增速放缓、缅甸局势动荡导致进口 中断以及美国MP矿出口停滞等多重因素影响，整体供给刚性增强；需求端则受益于新能源汽车、风 电"金九银十"旺季带来的集中采购，叠加人形机器人小批量量产释放新增量，下游补库意愿提升。在供 需错配背景下，稀土价格有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to rise, driven by factors such as a weakening dollar, supply concerns, and tight supply in LME registered warehouses, leading to record high copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Non-ferrous metal stocks in the A-share market saw significant gains, with Xiyang Co. rising by 6% and Western Mining increasing by over 5% [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 1.3%, expanding its year-to-date increase to 82% [1] - The ETF has experienced a net inflow of 325 million yuan over the past five days [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - LME copper prices reached $11,540 per ton, the highest level since 2013, while Shanghai copper futures surpassed 90,000 yuan per ton, marking a historical peak [1] - The ongoing tight supply of refined copper globally, particularly in non-American regions, is contributing to upward price pressure [1] Group 3: Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metal ETF is the only one tracking the Zhongzheng Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index, with a current scale of 16.2 billion yuan, covering key sectors such as copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and gold [1] - Key holdings in the ETF include leading companies in the non-ferrous sector such as Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and China Aluminum [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - With rising premiums for American copper and ongoing supply tightness in non-American regions, there is a bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The anticipated demand from the artificial intelligence sector is expected to provide a broad demand outlook for copper, suggesting potential upward price movement in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is entering a new upward cycle driven by macroeconomic factors, including liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve and supply chain disruptions [1][2] - As of November 27, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) has seen a net inflow of 87.28 million yuan, with a total of 396 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days [1] - The industrial metal sector is benefiting from multiple macroeconomic positives, with expectations for continued growth in the non-ferrous metal industry's performance into 2026 [1] Group 2 - The long-term investment logic for precious metals remains solid, supported by strong central bank gold purchases and ongoing geopolitical risks [2] - In the aluminum market, prices are expected to approach 3,000 USD per ton by Q1 2026 due to rising copper prices and supply risks [2] - The lithium industry is projected to continue its upward trend, driven by strong demand from the energy storage sector, despite a temporary slowdown in overseas lithium production [2] Group 3 - The non-ferrous metal ETF closely tracks the CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which includes 50 listed companies to reflect the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, among others [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) indicates a strong upward trend, driven by significant inflows and positive market sentiment towards the sector, particularly in light of ongoing central bank policies and global demand for gold and battery materials [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 10, 2025, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) rose by 2.19%, marking its fourth consecutive increase, with a trading volume of 240 million yuan [1]. - The CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index surged by 2.14%, with notable gains from constituent stocks such as Guocheng Mining (+9.99%), Hunan Gold (+6.21%), and Shengxin Lithium Energy (+5.90%) [1]. - Over the past 21 trading days, the non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) has seen a net inflow of 884 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Central Bank and Gold Demand - The central bank's latest report shows that as of the end of October, its gold reserves increased to 7.409 million ounces, up by 30,000 ounces from September, marking the 12th consecutive month of accumulation [1]. - Long-term forecasts suggest that interest rate cuts and policies from former President Trump may drive gold prices higher, with central bank purchases providing a supportive floor for prices [1]. Group 3: Battery and Storage Demand - According to CITIC Securities, the energy storage policy in 2025 is expected to drive an unexpected increase in demand for energy storage batteries, with improvements in battery capacity and trade-in policies boosting demand for power batteries [1]. - The global demand for lithium salt is anticipated to continue exceeding expectations, supported by the ongoing growth in energy storage and power battery sectors [1]. Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Recent market trends indicate a bullish sentiment towards cyclical sectors, particularly in coal, non-ferrous metals, certain chemicals, new energy, photovoltaic industry chains, and memory storage [2]. - Non-ferrous metals, steel, and building materials are highlighted as potential cyclical investment opportunities based on supply-side changes and free cash flow levels [2]. Group 5: Index Composition - The CSI Shenwan Non-Ferrous Metal Index comprises 50 listed companies selected from the non-ferrous metals and non-metallic materials sectors to reflect the overall performance of the industry in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, China Aluminum, Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and China Rare Earth [2].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector, including gold, is experiencing a rebound driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing safe-haven buying, with significant gains observed in related ETFs [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Precious metals, particularly gold, saw a significant increase, with spot gold rising by 2% on Monday, marking a six-day streak of hitting intraday historical highs [1] - The non-ferrous metals ETF (512400) increased by over 2%, with a year-to-date gain of 74.44% [1] - The non-ferrous metals ETF has attracted a net inflow of 4.9 billion yuan over the past 20 trading days, bringing its total size to 17.317 billion yuan, making it the only non-ferrous industry ETF exceeding 10 billion yuan in size [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The U.S. federal government shutdown has entered its 20th day, causing delays in the release of key economic data [1] - Traders are currently estimating a 99% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with another cut expected in December [1] Group 3: ETF Composition - The non-ferrous metals ETF tracks the CSI Zhongshan Shunwan Non-Ferrous Metals Index, covering key sectors such as copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and gold [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include leading companies in the non-ferrous sector, such as Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, Huayou Cobalt, and China Aluminum [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced significant adjustments, while gold prices reached new highs for five consecutive days, leading to a 2.7% increase in gold ETFs, with a year-to-date gain of 60% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Gold ETFs have seen a year-to-date increase of 60%, with a notable 2.7% rise recently [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF has a year-to-date increase of 76%, with a net inflow of 4.49 billion yuan over the last ten trading days [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF currently has a total scale of 18.235 billion yuan, making it the only non-ferrous industry ETF exceeding 10 billion yuan in the market [2] Group 2: Economic and Regulatory Environment - The U.S. Senate's tenth rejection of a temporary funding bill has led to a government shutdown, increasing market uncertainty [1] - Concerns over bad debts in the banking sector have arisen following loan issues disclosed by two regional banks, resulting in widespread declines in bank stocks [1] - Trade tensions and indications from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about potential interest rate cuts have heightened demand for safe-haven assets [2] Group 3: ETF Characteristics - Gold ETFs closely track the spot prices of gold contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, offering high transparency and liquidity, supporting T+0 intraday trading [2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF tracks the CSI Zhongshan Shenwan Non-ferrous Metal Index, covering key sectors such as copper, aluminum, lithium, rare earths, and gold, with a focus on leading companies in these segments [2]

Group 1: ETF Performance and Market Trends - The non-ferrous metal ETF (512400) experienced a rise of over 2%, currently up 1.28%, with a turnover of 3.85% and a transaction volume of 745 million yuan [1] - As of October 13, the latest scale of the non-ferrous metal ETF reached 18.926 billion yuan, with a total of 1.0525 billion shares, both hitting record highs since inception [1] - The ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past 7 days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 1.208 billion yuan, totaling 4.195 billion yuan in net inflows [1] Group 2: Rare Earth and Metal Supply Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on certain rare earth materials, effective November 8, which includes semiconductor-related items [1] - Analysts believe that China's strict export controls will further support rare earth prices, as the country remains the only one with a complete rare earth industry chain [1] - Citic Securities noted that the supply of rare earths is becoming more rigid, with the demand expected to improve as the traditional peak season approaches, indicating a positive supply-demand balance [2] Group 3: Copper and Cobalt Market Outlook - UBS predicts that the market outlook for copper is increasingly driven by supply-side factors, with expectations of price increases and a projected demand growth of 2.2% and 2.9% for refined copper in 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] - The supply gap for copper is expected to reach 53,000 tons in 2025 and 87,000 tons in 2026 [2] - The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has set cobalt export quotas for 2025-2027, with significant reductions in supply expected if production remains stable and exports are halted for about 8 months [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a sustained increase due to rising gold prices, expectations of interest rate cuts, and heightened demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (512400) has risen by 3.51% today, over 11% in the past five days, and more than 71% year-to-date, making it the only ETF tracking the China Securities Index for non-ferrous metals [1] - The ETF has seen a net inflow of 2.94 billion yuan in the last 20 days, with a current scale of 13.315 billion yuan, making it the only non-ferrous industry ETF exceeding 10 billion yuan in size [1] Group 2 - Eight departments have issued the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization and Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", targeting an average annual growth of around 5% in the industry's added value and a 1.5% annual growth in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [2] - Zijin Mining International has officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with an issue price of 71.59 HKD, raising 3.49 billion shares, and saw its stock price surge by 64% on the first trading day [2] Group 3 - Spot gold has surpassed 3,850 USD, and with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, frequent supply disruptions in commodities, and the seasonal demand in China, industrial metal prices are expected to continue rising [3]