铂金、钯金基础知识及 产业链介绍 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 目录 基础概念 供应与需求 01 02 铂钯期货合约（征求意见稿）解读 03 后市展望 04 会 在 热 王 水 中 溶 解 ， 形 成 氯 铂 但 酸 （H PtCl ）。 PART 01 基础概念 钯金简介 | 其 | 剂、 | 因 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 化 | 催 | 域， | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 车 | 领 | 用 | 汽 | 等 | | | | | | | | | | | | 睐。 | 应 | 宝、 | 剂 | 青 | | | | | | | | | | | | 心 | 化 | 珠 | 受 | 催 | 核 | 端 | 备 | | | | | | | | | 工 | 性 | 高 | 化 | 于 | 定 | | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1 - As of August 23, international gold price is reported at $3,370.2 per ounce, international palladium at $1,116.2 per ounce, and international silver at $38.94 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold price is reported at ¥771.7 per gram [1] Group 2 - Major domestic gold retailers' prices vary, with Chow Tai Fook at ¥1,006 per gram, while China Gold offers the lowest price at ¥969 per gram [1] - Other retailers such as Chow Sang Sang, Liufang Jewelry, and King of Gold also list their gold prices at ¥1,006 per gram, while Cai Bai Jewelry is priced at ¥980 per gram [1]

通胀上行预期交易强化 油价初见跌势尽头线 2025年08月22日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周四国际现货金价以3347.02美元开盘，最高上试3352.37美元，最低下探3325.08美元，报收3338.33美元，下跌9.62美元，跌幅0.29%，振幅0.82%，日K线 呈强势震荡小阴线。 周四美元指数以98.22点开盘，最高上试98.68点，最低下探98.18点，报收98.66点，上涨440点，涨幅0.45%，振幅0.51%，日K线呈震荡上行中阳线。 周四Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6888.60点开盘，最高上试6929.53点，最低下探6817.41点，报收6901.19点，上涨9.07点，涨幅0.13%，振幅2.15%， 日K线呈强势震荡小阳线。 周四市场运行看似杂乱无章，实则隐含通胀上行预期交易倾向。截止周五午盘的周内美元指数日K线，四阳一阴，总体表现强劲。但基本金属、贵金属， 尤其原油市场表现总体"先抑后扬"：周一、二基本金属、贵金属、原油市场在美元强势中承压，周三初见转折，周四则几乎无视美元继续走强而转强。 就市场表现而言，周四金价、贵 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices continue to rise, trading above $3,342 per ounce, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets following President Trump's request for Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to resign, raising concerns about central bank independence [1] - Gold prices increased by nearly 1% after Trump's request, with potential implications for future Fed appointments if Cook resigns, although she has expressed intent to remain [1] - Market participants are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole conference for future policy clues, with expectations of at least a 25 basis point rate cut next month, which would benefit non-yielding assets like gold [1] Group 2 - Despite achieving record highs in the first four months of the year, gold has seen a cumulative increase of over 25% year-to-date, supported by central bank purchases and inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1] - Analysts from various institutions, including UBS Wealth Management, believe there is still upward potential for gold prices [1] - Fitch Solutions' BMI department forecasts that gold prices will remain elevated in the coming weeks as the market prepares for a potential Fed rate cut in September, predicting prices to fluctuate between $3,200 and $3,600 per ounce for the remainder of 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, providing an overview of the platinum and palladium industry, including their properties, applications, and market dynamics [4][12]. Group 1: Platinum and Palladium Overview - Platinum and palladium are part of the platinum group metals, with low abundance in the Earth's crust, primarily found in South Africa, Russia, and Zimbabwe [4][5]. - Both metals exhibit excellent catalytic properties due to their unique electronic structures, which allow them to lower activation energy in chemical reactions [4][9]. - Common forms of platinum and palladium in circulation include metal ingots and sheets, with a purity requirement of at least 99.95% for trading [12][13]. Group 2: Industry Chain Structure - The platinum and palladium industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream exploration and mining, midstream refining and processing, and downstream applications and recycling [14][16]. - The demand for palladium is heavily concentrated in the automotive sector, while platinum has a more diversified demand across various industries, including automotive, jewelry, and investment [16]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The automotive industry is the largest consumer of both metals, with projections indicating that by 2025, automotive demand will account for 41% of platinum and 82% of palladium consumption [16]. - In the jewelry sector, platinum is favored for its durability and aesthetic qualities, contributing significantly to its demand, while palladium's jewelry consumption is minimal [16]. - Industrial applications for platinum are broader due to its superior stability, with approximately 28% of platinum demand coming from this sector, compared to only 16% for palladium [16].

1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The platinum - group metals market was previously trading on US tariff risks, with CME platinum and palladium inventories increasing significantly. As tariff trading receded and US inflation data exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts declined, putting pressure on platinum - group metal prices. - Before the Fed's monetary policy shows a clear dovish turn, platinum - group metal prices are expected to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now and wait for Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If there is a clear dovish stance, one can consider buying on dips at support levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 8.21%; the open interest of the main contract increased 3.23%; the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 6.87%; the net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 503 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 60 lots; the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.14% [9]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 18.36%; the open interest of the main contract decreased 14.53%; the NYMEX palladium inventory increased 13.28%; the net short position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2219 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 482 lots; the palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.23% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The NYMEX platinum price is approaching the upward trend line, and attention should be paid to its reaction around the trend line. The NYMEX palladium price is at the trend - line support, and whether it can stabilize and rebound around the trend line needs attention [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The NYMEX platinum main contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1179 lots to 81726 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 2.52% to 323.8 yuan per gram, and the internal - external price difference rebounded. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 14.65%, and the overseas spot shortage eased. As of August 12, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 503 lots to 12689 lots [21][27][31][36]. - **Palladium Price**: The NYMEX palladium main contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1148 lots to 20191 lots. As of August 12, the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 4896 lots [24][39]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of August 15, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.6 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased 1007 kg to 18.1 tons, with registered inventory decreasing and unregistered inventory increasing [50][57]. - **Palladium**: As of August 15, the total palladium ETF holdings were 13.21 tons. The CME palladium inventory increased 464.7 kg to 3963.9 kg, with both registered and unregistered inventories increasing [53][62]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 platinum mines is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease compared to 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [68]. - **Palladium Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 palladium mines is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease compared to 2024, showing a slight contraction [71]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May; palladium imports in June were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77]. - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are provided, but no specific supply - demand conclusions are drawn from these data in the report. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum supply - demand balance in 2025F shows a deficit of 14.29 tons, while the global palladium supply - demand balance in 2025 shows a surplus of 3.50 tons [88][89]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [93][94][96][98]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [100][102][104][105]. - **London Spot - NYMEX Spreads**: Data on the spreads between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent rise in gold prices is supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, alongside expectations of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - Spot gold is trading around $3,360 per ounce, while December futures rose by 0.3% to $3,408.3 per ounce, with silver, platinum, and palladium also experiencing price increases [1] - The decline in the dollar makes gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers, stimulating physical gold demand, while lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold [3] Group 2 - The current rise in gold prices reflects both risk aversion and changes in macroeconomic expectations, with soft inflation data suggesting the Fed may not need to maintain a tight stance [3] - Key factors that could influence gold prices include the Fed's guidance post-September rate cut and global economic uncertainties, which could affect safe-haven demand [3][4] - Short-term, gold bulls are in control, but there is an increasing risk of price volatility at high levels, especially if the dollar rebounds or bond yields rise [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for platinum/palladium is "Oscillating" [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are platinum - group metals with high melting points, strong catalytic activity, and corrosion resistance. Their spot benchmark pricing power is concentrated in the London Platinum and Palladium Market, and the futures pricing power is dominated by the New York Mercantile Exchange. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts [1]. - On the supply side, global platinum and palladium resources are highly concentrated, with significant oligopoly risks. China has a high degree of import dependence, and the import risk remains high for a long time [2]. - On the demand side, platinum demand fluctuates greatly, mainly from the automotive and investment sectors. Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector. China is the largest consumer of platinum and palladium. The hydrogen energy demand for platinum and palladium has a bright future, and the investment demand is expected to continue to rise [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Basics - Platinum and palladium have similar physical and chemical properties, such as high melting points, good ductility, and strong catalytic activity. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, high - end jewelry, and the chemical industry, while palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts [1][15][16]. 3.2 Platinum and Palladium Industry Chain - **Upstream**: Global platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. China's platinum - group element reserves are less than 1% of the world's, and the supply is highly dependent on imports [20]. - **Mid - stream**: Processing includes primary metal extraction and recycling. The extraction and refining of primary platinum and palladium are complex. There are differences in the separation and purification processes of platinum and palladium, with platinum having a longer refining cycle and lower short - term supply elasticity [24][25]. - **Downstream**: Palladium demand is highly concentrated in the automotive sector, while platinum demand is more diversified, including automotive, jewelry, industrial, and investment sectors. There are differences in their applications in different fields [28][29][30]. 3.3 Platinum and Palladium Circulation and Pricing Market - Platinum and palladium are mainly circulated in the form of metal ingots and sponge metals. The current global pricing system includes the London Platinum and Palladium Market for spot pricing and the New York Mercantile Exchange for futures pricing. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has announced a draft for comments on platinum and palladium futures contracts to address China's lack of pricing power [32][42][47]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Cyclical Supply and Stable Ratio of Primary to Recycled**: Global platinum and palladium supply shows cyclical characteristics. The ratio of primary to recycled supply has remained relatively stable in the long term, with palladium having a slightly higher recycling ratio [51][52]. - **Overseas Primary Supply**: Platinum - group metal resources are highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. The production of platinum and palladium mines has shown a downward trend in recent years. The output of leading mining enterprises has decreased, and short - term supply may remain tight [57][58][62]. - **Recycled Platinum and Palladium**: The main source of recycled platinum and palladium is the automotive sector. Traditional recycling regions are developed economies in Europe, America, and Japan. China's recycled platinum production has been increasing. The supply of recycled platinum and palladium is related to the vehicle scrapping cycle and policy drivers [89][90][95]. 3.5 Global Platinum and Palladium Trade and China's Supply - In international trade, platinum and palladium are mainly exported from South Africa and Russia. China, Germany, the United States, and other countries are major importers. China is highly dependent on imports for platinum and palladium, facing long - term import risks. Some domestic enterprises are investing overseas, but it is difficult to change the import - dependent pattern in the short term [100][104][107]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: This is the main demand source for platinum and palladium. Platinum is mainly used in diesel vehicle catalysts, and palladium is mainly used in gasoline vehicle catalysts. The demand is related to automobile production and sales, policies, and price - driven substitution effects between platinum and palladium [133][134][136]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is an ideal material for high - end jewelry, especially in the wedding market. China is the main source of demand elasticity for platinum jewelry. Jewelry demand is related to macro - economic indicators and inventory cycles [148][149][158]. - **Industrial Demand**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in the industrial field. Platinum demand in the glass and chemical industries is related to the real - estate cycle and macro - economic indicators. The demand in the electronics, petrochemical, and medical industries is relatively stable. Hydrogen energy is a future growth point for demand [159][163][166].

Group 1 - The international gold price on August 10, 2025, closed at $3397.13 per ounce, showing a slight increase of $1.50 (0.04%) from the previous day, with a trading range of $3377.43 to $3408.71 [2] - The international silver price also rose, closing at $38.30 per ounce, up 0.16% (an increase of $0.06), while platinum and palladium prices fell by $13.52 (1.00%) and $34.30 (2.93%) respectively, indicating a complex differentiation within the precious metals market [2] - Domestic gold prices from major brands showed significant variation, with Lao Feng Xiang leading at 1017 CNY per gram, while prices from other brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Tai Sheng were around 1015 CNY per gram, contrasting sharply with the lower price of 793 CNY per gram in the Shenzhen Shui Bei market [3] Group 2 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a gold price of 783.00 CNY per gram, down 0.27 CNY (0.034%) from the previous day, with fluctuations between 780.00 CNY and 784.70 CNY [4] - Historical data on gold recycling prices (purity 99.9%) showed stability, fluctuating between 753 CNY and 770 CNY per gram, although actual recycling prices may vary due to market fluctuations and regional differences [7] - Future gold price trends are influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and investor sentiment, with potential long-term price increases projected to exceed $4000 or even $5000 per ounce, despite possible short-term technical corrections [8]

黄金市场深度解析：2025年8月10日价格走势及影响因素 一、国际贵金属市场震荡：避险情绪主导价格波动 2025年8月10日，国际黄金市场呈现出显著的波动性。当日国际黄金价格收于每盎司3397.13美元，较昨日上涨1.50美元（涨幅0.04%），日内价格在3377.43 美元至3408.71美元之间震荡。开盘价为3404.30美元，昨日收盘价为3395.63美元。这一微涨背后，是市场对美联储潜在降息预期以及全球经济不确定性的复 杂反应。 国际白银价格则小幅上涨至每盎司38.30美元，较昨日上涨0.06美元（涨幅0.16%），日内高点触及38.46美元，低点为37.97美元。开盘价为38.27美元，昨日 收盘价为38.24美元。白银价格的温和上涨，与黄金价格的走势基本一致，反映了整体市场风险偏好的提升。 然而，国际铂金和钯金市场却呈现出显著的下跌趋势。国际铂金价格下跌13.52美元，跌幅达到1.00%，收于每盎司1340.68美元。日内价格最高触及1373.70 美元，最低点为1333.30美元，开盘价为1358.20美元，昨日收盘价为1354.20美元。国际钯金价格更是暴跌34.30美元，跌幅高达2.93%， ...