Group 1: Price Information - Platinum futures main contract closing price was 493.1 yuan/g, down 0.88% from the previous value; spot platinum (99.95%) was 485 yuan/g, up 0.21%; platinum basis (spot - futures) was -8.1 yuan/g, down 40.00% [4] - Palladium futures main contract closing price was 361.4 yuan/g, up 1.15%; spot palladium (99.95%) was 356.5 yuan/g, up 0.71%; palladium basis (spot - futures) was -4.9 yuan/g, up 48.48% [4] - London spot platinum was $1919/ounce, down 0.10%; London spot palladium was $1439.07/ounce, up 1.37% [4] - NYMEX platinum was $1918.4, up 0.11%; NYMEX palladium was $1438, up 1.45% [4] - Dollar/CNY central parity rate was 6.9194, down 0.04% [4] - The difference between domestic platinum and London platinum was 10.69 yuan/g, down 25.78%; the difference between domestic platinum and NYMEX platinum was 10.84 yuan/g, down 30.46% [4] - The difference between domestic palladium and London palladium was -0.36 yuan/g, down 222.89%; the difference between domestic palladium and NYMEX palladium was -0.09 yuan/g, down 111.08% [5] - The ratio of Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum to palladium was 1.3644, down 0.0280; the ratio of London spot platinum to palladium was 1.3335, down 0.0197 [5] Group 2: Inventory and Position Information - NYMEX platinum inventory was 541,249 ounces, down 2.34%; NYMEX palladium inventory was 247,765 ounces, down 0.24% [5] - NYMEX total position of platinum was 61,473, down 8.65%; non - commercial net long position of platinum was 16,898, down 4.14% [5] - NYMEX total position of palladium was 15,556, down 3.13%; non - commercial net long position of palladium was -185, up 571.35% [5] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - On March 31, platinum and palladium prices showed a volatile trend. PT2606 rose 0.16% to 493.10 yuan/g, PD2606 rose 0.89% to 361.40 yuan/g [6] - Fed officials' dovish signals and geopolitical factors affected platinum and palladium prices. It is expected that platinum and palladium will likely maintain a range - bound trend in the short term. After the geopolitical situation in the Middle East becomes relatively clear, consider going long on platinum unilaterally at low prices or continue to hold the [long platinum, short palladium] strategy [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical risk remains high, causing platinum and palladium to fluctuate. The short - term market risk preference is low, and investors are advised to be cautious. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for the valuation of platinum, but the current geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran still significantly affects market expectations and platinum prices. Palladium follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector, with short - term supply disturbances and long - term supply - demand loosening [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: On March 30, 2026, the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 2.66% to 497.5 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: The US released positive signals of suspending strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure and negotiating with Iran, but Trump's remarks increased uncertainty. Short - term geopolitical risk remains high, market volatility is large, and risk preference is low. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is pessimistic. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar index is conducive to platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still affects the market [2] - **Outlook**: The high energy prices push up the US inflation expectation and postpone the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. It is expected that the platinum price will fluctuate [2] Palladium - **Price**: On March 30, 2026, the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 0.61% to 357.30 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: There is continuous uncertainty on the supply side. The US imposed anti - dumping duties on Russian palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. On the demand side, there is structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand of palladium tends to be loose, and it mainly follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector [3] - **Outlook**: The spot tightness has eased recently, and with macro - level suppression, it is expected that the palladium price will fluctuate [3] Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The commodity index is 2535.43, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index is 2829.64, up 1.01%; the industrial products index is 2584.88, up 1.10% [49] - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 30, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2615.59, with a daily increase of 0.50%, a 5 - day increase of 1.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.29%, and a year - to - date decrease of 2.62% [51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For gold and silver, the continuous conflict in the Middle East has kept crude oil prices high, leading to an increase in the market's inflation expectations for the US. Meanwhile, the inhibitory effect of high oil prices on the economy is gradually emerging. The Federal Reserve maintained its policy in March, and the market expects less than one interest rate cut this year. The US dollar index is running strongly, and gold and silver may continue to be under pressure for adjustment. As the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut changes, gold and silver may continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the regression of the gold - silver ratio [4]. - For platinum and palladium, there is limited short - term fundamental data. In the medium term, platinum is in a tight - balance pattern, while palladium is in a relatively surplus pattern. In addition, the guidance of the gold price should be noted in the medium term. This week, they may follow the weak trend of the gold price, and the platinum - palladium ratio may continue to strengthen [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: From March 20 to March 27, 2026, the prices of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium in various markets generally declined. For example, the price of London gold dropped from $4562.55 per ounce to $4504.15 per ounce, and the price of London silver dropped from $72.37 per ounce to $67.795 per ounce [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 340,747 ounces, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 4,397,891 ounces, NYMEX platinum inventory decreased by 25,033 ounces, and NYMEX palladium inventory remained unchanged [8]. - **Market News**: The US adjusted its sanctions policy on Venezuela's key mineral sector, allowing certain investment and operation activities. From January to February 2026, China's silver ingot exports increased by 9.2% year - on - year, and imports increased by 707.7% year - on - year. China's silver concentrate imports decreased slightly by 1.2% year - on - year. Turkey's gold reserves decreased significantly in two consecutive weeks. The gold - platinum ratio has reached about 2.4, attracting investors to turn to platinum. Russia will restrict gold exports from May 1, and some central banks may increase their gold purchases in 2026 [10][11]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Spot Basis**: Analyze the spot basis of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, with data from Wind [13][16]. - **Ratio**: Analyze the relevant ratios, but specific content is not detailed in the text [19]. - **Market Positions**: Analyze the market positions of gold and silver, as well as overseas market positions, with data from Wind [21][24]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Analyze the futures warehouse receipts of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, with data from Wind [25][28]. - **ETF Positions**: Analyze the ETF positions of gold and silver, with data from Wind [30].

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian federal and Quebec provincial governments are taking measures to save Glencore's Horn smelter, which faces closure due to new pollution control requirements that threaten its operations [1][2]. Group 1: Facility Importance - The Horn smelter, located approximately 390 miles northwest of Montreal, is one of the few facilities in North America capable of processing copper concentrates and electronic waste [1]. - The smelter has an annual capacity of about 215,000 metric tons of copper concentrates and copper scrap, accounting for approximately 16% of North America's annual capacity [2]. - The closure of the smelter would jeopardize Glencore's copper refining plant in Montreal and potentially affect around 3,200 direct and indirect jobs [2]. Group 2: Legislative and Financial Measures - Quebec has proposed legislative amendments to delay the new arsenic emission limits for the Horn smelter by about two years until 2029, maintaining them at a level five times higher than the province's safety standards [1][2]. - The Canadian federal government is considering a financial aid request of approximately CAD 150 million to help cover the costs of new pollution control systems [2]. Group 3: Community and Industry Impact - The Horn smelter has been a source of controversy due to health concerns, with higher rates of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease reported in the surrounding community [2]. - The closure of the smelter would disrupt the supply chain for companies like Nexans SA, which relies heavily on the smelter for copper supply [3]. - The potential loss of the smelter could complicate the supply situation for the industry, especially given the reduced customer base in the U.S. [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices showed a high - level volatile trend. Tensions in the Middle East at the beginning of the week affected energy markets, causing precious metal prices to drop sharply on Monday. Trump's delay in attacking Iran led to a fall in oil prices, a decrease in inflation concerns, a decline in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in market risk appetite, which boosted precious metal prices. Due to the frequent switching of geopolitical signals, market sentiment was cautious [2][5]. - The US submitted a 15 - point proposal to end the war to Iran via Pakistan. Iran rejected the proposal and put forward clear pre - conditions. Trump postponed the strike on Iran's energy facilities by ten days, with the deadline extended to April 6. The Pentagon is planning a "weeks - long ground operation", and the USS Tripoli and 3,500 soldiers have arrived in the Middle East. Iran is ready to respond and has organized over a million people for ground combat. The ongoing US - Iran conflict has strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate hikes by the US and European central banks [2][6]. - The current US - Iran negotiation is at a deadlock. Geopolitical signals are switching frequently, and the negotiation is likely to be a long - drawn - out process, which will keep oil prices high. Precious metals are still suppressed by the expectation of monetary policy tightening due to rising inflation, and the adjustment is not over. The large - scale sale of gold reserves by the Turkish central bank to stabilize the exchange rate also puts pressure on gold prices. It is expected that precious metal prices will show a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [2][7][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate/% | Total Trading Volume/Hand | Total Open Interest/Hand | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 998.66 | - 40.56 | - 3.90 | 169083 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 992.45 | - 48.15 | - 4.63 | 81692 | 239470 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 4521.30 | 29.30 | 0.65 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 17489 | - 2491 | - 12.47 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 17467 | - 313 | - 1.76 | 293094 | 2849646 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 69.77 | 1.96 | 2.89 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 493.05 | - 16.70 | - 3.28 | 5790 | 7356 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 477.04 | - 31.84 | - 6.26 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 1866.40 | - 31.84 | - 2.80 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 358.20 | - 31.84 | - 2.89 | 2838 | 7356 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1384.50 | - 31.84 | - 2.12 | | | US dollars/ounce | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - The precious metal market was affected by the Middle East situation last week. Tensions at the beginning of the week led to a price drop, and Trump's delay in the attack on Iran led to a price rebound. The market is cautious due to the frequent switching of geopolitical signals [2][5]. - The US - Iran conflict continues, and the market's expectation of interest rate hikes by the US and European central banks is strengthening. The Fed's policy is considered to be dragging down the economy, and the inflation forecast has been raised. The European Central Bank will take action if necessary [6]. - The US - Iran negotiation is in a deadlock, and it is expected to be a long - term process, keeping oil prices high. Precious metals are under pressure from inflation - driven monetary policy tightening expectations, and the Turkish central bank's gold sales also put pressure on prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to be weak and volatile [7][8]. 3.3 Important Data Information - The US March composite PMI unexpectedly dropped to 51.4, with manufacturing expansion accelerating and service - sector growth slowing [9]. - The eurozone March composite PMI fell to a 10 - month low, and France's PMI contracted for three consecutive months, sounding a stagflation alarm [9]. - Wall Street institutions have significantly raised the probability of a US economic recession due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, soaring oil prices, and structural weakness in the labor market. Moody's model shows a 48.6% probability of a US recession in the next 12 months, and Goldman Sachs has raised the forecast to 30% [9]. - The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate is expected to slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the US inflation rate will reach 4.2% this year, much higher than the Fed's expectation [9]. - The US February import prices rose 1.3% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since March 2022, mainly driven by higher oil and natural gas prices. Export prices rose 1.5% month - on - month, the largest single - month increase since May 2022 [9]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 5,000 to 210,000, in line with market expectations. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 32,000 to 1,819,000, the lowest level in nearly two years [10]. - The Turkish central bank's gold reserves decreased by 6 tons in the week of March 13 and 52.4 tons in the week of March 20. Bloomberg reported that the Turkish central bank may continue to sell gold to prevent the lira from depreciating further [10]. - Gold ETFs have seen an outflow of about 43 tons in the past two weeks [10]. 3.4 Relevant Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, inventory changes of COMEX and LBMA gold and silver, non - commercial net long positions of COMEX gold and silver, and the relationship between gold prices and various factors such as the US dollar, copper prices, inflation expectations, and VIX index [11][12][14][15][16][17][18][20][21][23][24][25][27][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][38][39][41][42][45][47][49][50][51]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2, the precious metals market will remain in a fierce game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, with high - volatility characteristics hard to fade quickly. The core drivers focus on two main lines: the Fed's policy path and the trend of US Treasury yields, and the evolution of the US - Iran situation and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The market is likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern [3][98]. - Gold's macro - suppression is the short - term dominant factor, but geopolitical risks have not subsided. Gold's core position as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains stable, and the correction can be regarded as a medium - to - long - term allocation window. Silver will fluctuate more violently, and it is difficult to participate. Platinum shows relative resilience, while palladium will continue to lag due to its weak fundamentals [4][101]. - In operation, it is recommended to prioritize risk control and take a long - term perspective. Gold can be used as a strategic bottom - position and gradually deployed on dips. For silver and platinum - group metals, only extremely light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended, and heavy - position chasing up or killing down should be avoided [5][101]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Review - In Q1 2026, the precious metals market experienced extreme fluctuations from a historic surge to a cliff - like flash crash and then to a continuous deep adjustment. The market's driving logic switched among geopolitical risks, policy expectations, and macro - suppression, with significant differentiation among varieties [7]. - From January to mid - February, geopolitical and policy expectations resonated, leading to a historic surge in precious metals. However, on January 30, the market reversed due to changes in policy expectations, and precious metals crashed. In February, the market entered a high - level shock consolidation phase [8]. - From late February to March, geopolitical conflicts and macro - suppression alternately dominated, and precious metals entered a deep adjustment. Platinum and palladium showed different performances in the macro - suppression, with platinum showing relative resistance and palladium falling more significantly [9][10]. - In late March, the market entered a stage of repeated news and low - level shocks, with precious metals showing different degrees of fluctuations [11]. 3.2 Macro - analysis 3.2.1 Geopolitical Risks - In Q1, global geopolitical situations deteriorated. Different from the traditional "conflict means safe - haven" logic, precious metals did not rise with oil prices but fell after the conflict escalated. Geopolitical risks are reshaping the precious metals' valuation system through the "inflation transmission" path [31]. - Currently, the Middle - East conflict is deadlocked, and geopolitical risks have not subsided. Its impact on precious metals has shifted from direct safe - haven driving to indirect transmission through "inflation expectations - macro - policies - US dollar valuation." In the short term, high oil prices and tight macro - expectations suppress precious metals, but the market's over - pessimistic pricing of the Fed's interest - rate hikes may be corrected [32]. 3.2.2 Monetary Policy - The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept the federal funds rate unchanged, which was in line with market expectations. However, the Fed is facing unprecedented uncertainties. The meeting signaled that inflation prevention is the top priority, and the space for interest - rate cuts this year has narrowed [33][34]. - Powell admitted the difficulty of predicting the future and policy modeling due to geopolitical conflicts. He also refuted the "stagflation" narrative to maintain the discourse power of economic narratives. His stance on staying in office provides short - term stability but leaves medium - to - long - term uncertainties [36][37]. 3.2.3 Inflation - In February 2026, the US CPI performance was "average." The market's focus has shifted to how oil prices will push up inflation after March and how the Fed will balance the "stagflation" risk. The 2026 interest - rate cut expectation has been revised down to "at most once" [43]. 3.2.4 Economic Growth - In February, the US manufacturing PMI expansion slowed down, with input prices soaring to a four - year high. The service PMI jumped unexpectedly, with new orders and backlogs surging. The employment data in February was unexpectedly negative, strengthening the market's concern about the cooling labor market. In the long - term, the weak employment and high inflation situation intensifies the market's concern about "stagflation" [46][47][49]. 3.2.5 US Treasury Yields and the US Dollar Index - In Q1, the US Treasury market fluctuated violently due to geopolitical conflicts. The yields of two - year, five - year, and ten - year US Treasuries rose significantly. The US dollar index strengthened in Q1, directly suppressing precious metals [57][59]. 3.3 Precious Metals Supply - demand Analysis 3.3.1 Gold - In Q4 2025, the global gold market was strong, with total demand and gold prices hitting record highs. Investment demand was the core driver. Supply increased slightly, while investment demand grew explosively. The demand structure was significantly differentiated, with high gold prices suppressing physical gold jewelry consumption but increasing the demand value [61][62]. 3.3.2 Silver - In 2025, the global silver market is expected to show a "moderate decline in total demand but significant structural differentiation" feature. Industrial demand remains strong, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap, providing medium - to - long - term support for silver prices [67]. 3.3.3 Platinum - In 2025, the platinum market was in a supply shortage for the third consecutive year, and the gap widened. In 2026, the shortage pattern is expected to continue, and the fundamental support has been significantly enhanced [71][74]. 3.3.4 Palladium - The palladium market presents a complex pattern of "short - term shortage and long - term structural pressure." In the short term, the supply is tight, but in the long term, the demand for palladium in fuel - vehicle catalysts may decline due to the global automotive electrification transformation [77]. 3.4 Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis 3.4.1 Gold ETF Holdings - In February 2026, global gold ETFs continued to see strong inflows, with the total holdings reaching a new high. Different regions showed different trends, with North America leading the inflow, Europe having outflows, and Asia and other regions having inflows. Gold and silver ETF flows indicate that the bullish sentiment has converged [80][81][83]. 3.4.2 CFTC Positions - As of the week of March 17, 2026, the non - commercial net long positions of gold and silver futures decreased, indicating a decline in the bullish sentiment. The non - commercial net long positions of platinum futures decreased slightly, while those of palladium futures increased [87]. 3.4.3 Inventory Analysis - As of March 25, 2026, the COMEX gold and silver inventories decreased significantly, the SHFE gold inventory reached a new high, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased. The NYMEX platinum inventory decreased, and the NYMEX palladium inventory increased [92]. 3.5 Outlook and Operation Suggestions - In Q2, the precious metals market will be in a game between macro - expectations and geopolitical risks, likely to continue a wide - range shock pattern. Gold can be considered for medium - to - long - term allocation on dips. Silver and platinum - group metals are highly volatile, and only light - position short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended [98][101].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the market is centered around the Middle East situation, with the main logic being the stagflation expectation caused by rising energy prices. As the conflict lasts longer than expected and escalates, the trading logic has shifted from inflation concerns to recession fears. Precious metals showed good performance on Friday under the support of the safe - haven attribute after the previous selling pressure was released. Due to the chaotic information on the US - Iran conflict, asset prices fluctuate frequently and passively, making trading difficult. Precious metals are expected to show a weak and volatile trend. Before a real agreement is reached, there is still a risk of the war escalating in some form. Gold is in an upward channel on the daily - line cycle from 2023 to the present, and attention should be paid to the support at the lower edge of the channel at $3900 - 4000. The gold volatility index GVZ is still at a high level (99.6% quantile), and the short - term volatility of gold is large, suitable for short - term speculation rather than allocation. It is recommended that conservative investors wait and see in the short term [4]. - In the medium - term, regardless of the outcome of the US - Iran conflict, the energy price center is likely to rise, increasing the US imported inflation pressure, disrupting the Fed's interest - rate cut environment, and delaying the rate - cut rhythm, which will put short - term pressure on precious metals. However, considering the US stock market, debt repayment pressure, and private - credit market pressure, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year is low. As the core anchor for gold pricing, real interest rates have room to fall, which will support gold. After a previous sharp unilateral rise, the US - Iran conflict has led to a significant decline in risk appetite, causing gold to be sold as the primary liquid asset. The market is likely to enter a four - month shock - consolidation phase to complete valuation repair [4]. - In the long - term, the outcome of the US - Iran conflict will affect the market's pricing of gold from the perspective of the US comprehensive strength assessment. If the US fails to obtain control of the Strait of Hormuz in the US - Iran peace talks, the global perception of the US strength will be re - evaluated, and the trend of de - dollarization will continue. The core support logic for precious metals has not fundamentally changed, and long - term factors such as global order reconstruction, high geopolitical uncertainty, and global monetary system reconstruction still exist [7]. - Silver, platinum, and palladium are more like beta versions of gold from a financial perspective. Their explosive growth in the past year was mainly due to investment demand and will continue to follow gold price fluctuations. As the impact of the US - Iran conflict on the global economy deepens, economic uncertainty increases, and industrial demand expectations decline, which will affect the price levels of silver, platinum, and palladium from an industrial perspective [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - influencing Factors - The report mentions data on the US federal fund target rate, US Treasury yields and spreads, US Treasury real yields and inflation expectations, and policy interest rates and Treasury yields of major economies, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [15][18][21][24]. 3.2 ETF持仓跟踪 - Gold and silver ETF holdings data are provided. For example, on March 27, 2026, the SPDR gold ETF held 1052.7 tons with no change, and the SLV silver ETF held 15409.46 tons with no change. Data sources are from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [30]. - Information on the scale of China's commodity - based gold ETF holdings is also mentioned, with data from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [34]. 3.3 Exchange Inventories - Gold and silver exchange inventory data are presented, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [37][42]. 3.4 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences - Information on domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences is provided, with data from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [50]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios - Data on precious metal ratios are given, with data sources from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [57]. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index - The gold ETF volatility index (GVZ) is a key indicator to measure the market's expectation of the gold price fluctuation in the next 30 days, calculated based on the option prices of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). When GVZ breaks through 30 (historical high range), it indicates a significant increase in gold price volatility, and leverage should be reduced and positions controlled. On March 27, 2026, the implied volatility of the Shanghai gold at - the - money option was 34.66%, and its quantiles in the past one - year, three - year, and since 2020 were 93.62%, 97.88%, and 98.58% respectively. The implied volatility of the Shanghai silver at - the - money option was 72.12%, and its quantiles in the past one - year and three - year were 83.66% and 94.56% respectively. Data sources are from WIND and the Guolian Futures Research Institute [65][67][70].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the platinum and palladium markets, analyzing the current market situation, supply - demand dynamics, and providing investment suggestions [6] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar and crude oil prices has continuously suppressed the precious metals market. The platinum and palladium markets on the GQIEX continued their weak and volatile performance this week [6] - The main contradictions in the market revolve around the repeated situation in the US - Iran conflict, the impact of oil prices and inflation expectations, and the pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [6] - Platinum shows stronger price support than palladium, with its support coming from its tight fundamentals. The medium - term tight logic of platinum remains unchanged, while the medium - term logic of palladium is weaker [6] - In the short term, platinum and palladium are likely to follow the fluctuations of gold and silver, remaining under pressure. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually buy platinum on dips [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The US dollar and crude oil prices have put pressure on the precious metals market. The platinum and palladium markets on the GQIEX continued to be weak and volatile. The main contradictions in the market are related to the US - Iran situation, oil prices, inflation expectations, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [6] - Platinum's price support comes from its tight fundamentals. In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the above - ground inventory may drop to 2.613 million ounces [6] - Although palladium is supported by Russian supply risks, its medium - term logic is weaker. The Chinese fiberglass industry may be a new source of palladium demand, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline - vehicle catalysts [6] 4.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Due to the repeated US - Iran geopolitical situation, the US dollar and crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels. The main contracts of platinum and palladium on the GQIEX were weak and volatile [7] - As of March 27, 2026, the main palladium contract 2606 on the GQIEX was at 358.20 yuan/gram, down 2.89% for the week; the main platinum contract 2606 was at 493.05 yuan/gram, down 3.28% for the week [11] - The net positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. The long - position of NYMEX palladium continued to flow out [12] - As of March 17, 2026, the net long - position of NYMEX platinum was 22,917 contracts, a 9.57% increase; the net long - position of NYMEX palladium was - 1,383 contracts, a 1.71% increase but still in a net - outflow state [14] - This week, the basis of the main NYMEX platinum contract strengthened, while that of the main NYMEX palladium contract weakened [15] - As of March 26, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was $55.7/ounce (last week: - $38), strengthening; the NYMEX palladium basis was - $33/ounce (last week: $47), weakening [19] - This week, the basis of the main platinum contract on the GQIEX weakened, while that of the main palladium contract strengthened [20] - As of March 26, 2026, the platinum basis was - 2.85 yuan/gram (last week: 3.35 yuan/gram), weakening; the palladium basis was - 14.35 yuan/gram (last week: - 18.45 yuan/gram), strengthening [22] - This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased slightly, while the NYMEX palladium inventory increased [23] - As of March 26, 2026, the NYMEX platinum inventory was 558,767.51 ounces, a 3.54% decrease; the NYMEX palladium inventory was 248,373.69 ounces, a 1.29% increase [26] - The price trends of platinum and gold continued to be highly synchronized, and the gold - platinum ratio weakened slightly this week [27] - As of March 26, 2026, the gold - platinum ratio was 2.41 (last week: 2.44), a slight weakening; the rolling correlation between NYMEX platinum and gold strengthened (N = 40) [31] 4.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of February 2026, the import and export volume of platinum decreased, while that of palladium increased [33] - Platinum imports were 4,437,146 grams, a 6.11% decrease; exports were 371,067 grams, a 72.15% decrease. Palladium imports were 1,525,418 grams, a 51.77% increase; exports were 2,288 grams, a 25.94% increase [37] - The demand for platinum and palladium in automobile exhaust catalysts has been declining due to the increasing share of new - energy vehicles [39] - The core consumption of platinum and palladium is concentrated in automobile exhaust catalysts, but the trends are different. The proportion of automobile catalysts in global palladium consumption is 83%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 6% to 285 tons. For platinum, automobile catalysts account for 44%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 3% to 234 tons [41] - The total demand for global platinum and palladium is showing a gentle slowdown trend [42] - WPIC expects the global platinum demand to be 8.297 million ounces in 2025, a 1% increase, and to drop to 7.619 million ounces in 2026. The automobile demand will decline from 3.107 million ounces in 2024 to 2.943 million ounces in 2026 [46] - The supply patterns of platinum and palladium are different. Geopolitical situations have tightened the platinum supply [48] - In 2025, the global platinum mine supply decreased to 5.551 million ounces, a 4% decrease, and is expected to rise slightly to 5.553 million ounces in 2026. The recycling supply increased from 1.664 million ounces to 1.827 million ounces. The global palladium mine production is expected to drop to 190,000 kilograms in 2025, a significant decline from 217,000 kilograms in 2024 [52] 4.4 Macro and Options - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued their strong performance [58] - As of March 26, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.90, a 0.70% increase; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.02%, a 0.16% increase [62] 4.5 Platinum - Palladium Price Difference - This week, the price differences between domestic and foreign markets for both platinum and palladium narrowed [54] - As of March 26, 2026, the platinum price difference between domestic and foreign markets was $86.61/ounce, a week - on - week decrease; the palladium price difference was $45.76/ounce, a week - on - week decrease [56]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The situation between the US and Iran remains severe, causing platinum and palladium prices to be under pressure and fluctuate. The short - term geopolitical situation leads to significant market volatility, and the long - term weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for platinum valuation, but current geopolitical conflicts still affect market expectations and prices. Palladium follows platinum's fluctuations, with short - term supply disturbances and long - term loosening of supply - demand [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Platinum - **Price**: On March 26, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 4.78%, closing at 487.40 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: Iran has submitted a response to the US regarding the "15 - point proposal" and believes the US negotiation statement is a "third deception." Short - term geopolitical uncertainties increase market volatility, and risk preference is low. In the long run, the long - term weakening of the US dollar index is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still influences market expectations and prices [2] - **Outlook**: Platinum prices are expected to fluctuate due to the high uncertainty of the US - Iran situation [2] Palladium - **Price**: On March 26, 2026, the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange fell 5.23%, closing at 353.35 yuan/gram [1] - **Main Logic**: There are continuous uncertainties on the supply side. The US has made a positive preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions on Russian palladium. On the demand side, palladium faces structural pressure. In the long - term, supply - demand is loosening, and in the short - term, there are supply disturbances, mainly following the overall fluctuations of the precious metals sector [3] - **Outlook**: Palladium prices are expected to fluctuate as the spot tightness has eased recently and there is macro - level suppression [3] Indexes - **Commodity Indexes**: The comprehensive index is not detailed. The commodity 20 index is 2811.87, up 0.44%; the industrial products index is 2545.38, up 0.15% [48] - **Plate Index (Non - ferrous Metals)**: On March 26, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2599.38, with a daily increase of 0.19%, a 5 - day increase of 0.86%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.40%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.22% [50]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Platinum price is expected to fluctuate due to the uncertain development of the US - Iran situation. Trump's statements have affected market expectations, and while the long - term weakening of the US dollar is beneficial for platinum valuation, the current geopolitical conflict still significantly influences the market and platinum prices [2]. - Palladium price is also expected to oscillate. Supply - side uncertainties continue with potential tariffs and sanctions, and demand faces structural pressure. It mainly follows the overall fluctuation of the precious metal sector [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - On March 25, 2026, the platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 5.63% to 505.85 yuan/gram [1]. - Trump's statements have led to a change in market expectations for the US - Iran situation, with a decline in oil prices and an improvement in interest - rate cut expectations, causing the platinum price to rise. However, Iran's attitude remains unchanged, and Trump's statements may be inconsistent, leading to short - term market volatility. In the long run, the weakening of the US dollar is beneficial for platinum valuation, but the US - Iran conflict still impacts the market and platinum price [2]. Palladium - On March 25, 2026, the palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 5.07% to 368.55 yuan/gram [1]. - Supply - side uncertainties persist as the US has made a preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Russian unforged palladium, and Europe is considering new sanctions. Demand for palladium faces structural pressure. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is loosening, and in the short term, supply disruptions remain, with the price mainly following the overall precious metal sector [3]. Commodity Index - On March 25, 2026, the comprehensive index of the CITICS Futures Commodity Index was 2505.87, down 0.37%; the Commodity 20 Index was 2799.49, up 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2541.47, down 1.12% [48]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On March 25, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2594.45, with a daily increase of 0.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.84%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.41% [50].