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欧元走强,外贸人必抓的汇率窗口期!百万订单白捡40万利润
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-02 03:40
Core Viewpoint - The euro has recently strengthened against the dollar, surpassing the 1.17 mark, reaching a three-year high, which presents a significant opportunity for companies engaged in foreign trade to increase profit margins through currency exchange [1][3]. Group 1: Euro to Dollar Exchange Rate - As of June 30, 2025, the euro has broken through the 1.17 level against the dollar, marking the highest point since September 2021, with an annual increase of over 10% [3]. - The weakening of the dollar is attributed to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (projected at 60 basis points) and uncertainties surrounding Trump's tariff policies, with a critical date on July 9 [3]. - Institutions like UBS and HSBC predict a bullish outlook for the euro, targeting 1.20 by the end of the year, which could result in an additional 2.2%-2.5% increase in revenue for orders settled in euros compared to those in dollars [3]. Group 2: Strategies for Euro Settlement - Companies are advised to prioritize euro settlements when negotiating new orders, clearly indicating "EUR pricing" in quotes [4]. - For existing dollar-denominated contracts, firms should negotiate to switch to euro settlements, potentially offering discounts to facilitate this change [4]. - For larger order amounts, it is recommended to use "cap and floor" options to hedge against potential currency reversal risks [4]. Group 3: Risk Management and Market Trends - Institutions forecast a long-term bullish trend for the euro, although short-term corrections may occur; thus, companies should be cautious of blindly chasing profits [4]. - It is crucial to monitor the July 9 tariff decision, as any tariffs imposed by Trump on the EU could lead to a sharp decline in the euro to around 1.10, necessitating preemptive planning [4]. - Companies should avoid "naked exposure" to currency fluctuations, especially given the rapid appreciation of the euro, and consider retaining some dollar income to naturally hedge against double currency losses [4].