美元理财"高息陷阱"背后：汇率波动吞噬收益，普通投资者如何避坑？ 美元理财这趟车，我算是彻底上错了。去年底看着工行App上5%的年化收益率，心里直痒痒——这可 比国内定存高出一大截啊！当时美元兑人民币汇率刚过7.，我咬牙换了1万美金砸进去，心想这波稳赚 不亏。谁料半年过去，理财收益从5%跌到4%，汇率更是一路跌到7.，算下来反而亏了500多块。现在看 着账户里那点可怜巴巴的收益，肠子都悔青了。 查了些资料才发现，这波美元理财的坑早有人踩过。去年7月就有投资者吐槽，自己买的美元理财半年 没回本，收益全被汇率跌没了。今年更夸张，6月份有银行理财产品因为收益率达标直接提前终止，连 本带利还你，但算上汇率损失，实际还是亏的。专家说这叫"目标盈"产品，看着美好，其实得看运气 ——你得刚好在汇率高点买，又在利率高点卖，跟炒股似的。 现在回头想想，银行理财经理当初那句"美元资产能对冲人民币贬值风险"真是个美丽的谎言。美元指数 从年初110跌到98，跌幅超过10%，创了40年最差纪录。更扎心的是，美联储降息预期一来，美元理财 收益率也跟着跳水。年初还能看到5%的年化，现在普遍跌到4%以下，跟人民币理财的差距越来越小。 有分析 ...

（文章来源：中国基金报） 据报道，日元兑美元汇率的回落给日本经济带来压力，尤其是进口商品的成本上升影响了普通家庭和中 小企业。 片山皋月称日本政府正密切关注这种波动，若形势继续恶化，日本将根据日美两国此前签署 的联合声明采取干预措施。 据路透社19日报道，三井住友银行市场营业部外汇交易团队负责人纳谷巧指出，如果中国今后进一步实 施旅行或出口限制等措施，将会对日本经济造成更大影响，并可能提高日元的下行压力。 来源：央视新闻、中国新闻网 据日本《朝日新闻》21日报道，最近日元对美元持续快速贬值，日本财务大臣片山皋月在21日的讲话中 称，目前日元对美元的走势"非常单向且急速"，她对此深表忧虑。彭博社21日报道称，片山皋月这番表 态是日元贬值以来的"最强烈警告"。 ...

木原强调汇率基于经济基本面实现稳定运行至关重要，明确反对由投机行为或市场情绪驱动的剧烈波 动。这是日本当局对近期日元持续贬值态势的最新一次正式表态，显示政府正密切关注汇市动向。 美元/日元技术分析 周四（11月20日）亚洲时段，美元/日元反弹并测试157.50水平，最新美元兑日元汇率报157.3900，涨幅 0.15%，尽管日本方面进行了口头干预，但日元未能因此走强。与此同时，随着市场避险情绪降温，美 元再度上扬，也推动了该货币对的反弹。市场正等待美国就业数据的发布。 日本内阁官房长官木原稔周四在新闻发布会中针对近期日元汇率走势发出警告，表示近期出现的"单 向、急剧"汇率波动令人担忧，需要保持高度关注。他强调"必须警惕汇率的过度波动和失序走势"。 此番表态正值日元兑美元汇率跌破157关口，触及今年1月以来最低水平。市场分析认为，美联储短期内 降息预期减弱是推动美元走强、日元承压的关键因素。 技术面显示，美元兑日元的日线RSI已处于轻微超买区间，限制了多头继续追高的意愿，市场可能需要 在高位进行横盘整理或出现适度回撤，为下一轮走势积蓄动能。 若汇价出现调整，156.60区域或成为首个支撑位；若跌破156.00， ...

Group 1: Core Insights - European chemical companies reported significant profit declines and even net losses in Q3, with sales also plummeting due to overcapacity, price drops, and currency fluctuations [1] - BASF's Q3 profits and sales both fell, with a report indicating that profit margins are under pressure and showing no signs of improvement, as nearly all indicators are at cyclical lows [1] - Bayer continued to report net losses in Q3, but adjusted EBITDA increased by 21% year-on-year to €1.51 billion, exceeding analyst expectations, primarily driven by its crop science business [1] Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Evonik transitioned from profit to a net loss of €106 million in Q3, with adjusted EBITDA down 22% year-on-year to €448 million, and revenue decreased by 12% to €3.4 billion [2] - Covestro faced a loss of €150 million due to ongoing plant shutdowns, with Q3 sales down 12% and EBITDA guidance for the year lowered to €700 million to €800 million [2] - AkzoNobel reported a Q3 adjusted EBITDA of €385 million, below expectations, and lowered its annual profit guidance, anticipating an adjusted EBITDA of €1.48 billion for 2025 [3] Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - The chemical industry is facing a challenging market environment with persistent price pressures and declining demand, leading to significant adjustments in profit forecasts across multiple companies [1][2][3] - Arkema lowered its full-year EBITDA guidance to €1.25 billion to €1.3 billion due to macroeconomic pressures and weaker-than-expected demand in the U.S. [3] - Lanxess experienced a 16.3% year-on-year decline in sales in Q3, with varying performance across its business segments, highlighting the impact of market pressures on profitability [3]

欧洲化企三季度财报显示，各企业利润大幅下滑甚至出现净亏损，销售额同步暴跌。产能过剩引发的价 格下跌、汇率波动等多重压力，抵消了销量端的微弱改善，市场环境仍极具挑战性。 阿克苏诺贝尔三季度由盈转亏，销售额下降，经调整EBITDA为3.85亿欧元，低于预期的3.98亿欧元， 同比降低2%。公司称，结构性成本控制与精准执行抵消了销量下滑的影响，同时下调了年度盈利指 引，预计2025年经调整EBITDA为14.8亿欧元。 阿科玛考虑到宏观经济压力及美国需求不及预期，将全年EBITDA指引下调至12.5亿至13亿欧元。公司 三季度盈利与销售额下滑，EBITDA同比降24%至3.1亿欧元，仍超过市场预期的3.06亿欧元。 朗盛集团三季度销售额同比下降16.3%，常规业务范围内息税折旧及摊销前利润为1.25亿欧元，同比下 降27.7%。分业务板块看，消费者保护业务表现稳健，息税折旧及摊销前利润同比增长1.4%至7200万欧 元，利润率提升至15.9%；特殊添加剂业务受需求疲软和产能利用率不足影响，利润下滑26.2%；高品 质中间体业务面临亚洲市场价格压力和需求不振双重挑战，利润大幅下滑61.8%。 深陷诉讼的拜耳三季度延续 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent data indicates that foreign capital is significantly reducing its holdings in Chinese bonds, with a notable decline attributed to rising U.S. Treasury yields and currency fluctuations, which may impact China's financial market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Foreign Capital Reduction - As of October 2025, foreign institutions held 29,765 billion yuan in Chinese bonds, a decrease of 2,843 billion yuan or 8.7% since the beginning of the year, marking the longest net outflow in five years [1]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.8%, compared to approximately 2.6% for Chinese bonds, creating a 2.2 percentage point yield advantage that attracts international capital [1][3]. - Approximately 62% of surveyed international investors indicated that currency fluctuations are a primary factor in their decision to adjust their holdings in Chinese bonds [3][4]. Group 2: Global Monetary Policy and Economic Factors - The divergence in monetary policy, with the U.S. maintaining a stringent stance while China has implemented three interest rate cuts in 2025, has widened the interest rate differential, further encouraging capital flow to the U.S. [4]. - China's GDP growth slowed to 4.6% year-on-year in Q3 2025, which, while still higher than many global economies, has led to cautious sentiment among foreign investors regarding Chinese bonds [4]. Group 3: Impact on Financial Markets - Foreign holdings of Chinese bonds accounted for approximately 2.1% of the total bond market as of October 2025, down from a peak of 3.5% in 2023, suggesting that while the outflow has some impact, it is unlikely to cause severe disruption [6]. - The outflow of capital may exert some pressure on the renminbi, but China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.24 trillion as of September 2025, providing a solid foundation to manage currency fluctuations [6]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - The internationalization of China's bond market is increasing, with Chinese bonds included in major international indices, which may provide a more stable source of foreign investment in the long run [7]. - A survey of 50 major asset management firms revealed that about 67% believe the proportion of Chinese bonds in their global asset allocation will increase over the next five years [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent depreciation of the Japanese yen is testing the patience of Japanese policymakers and causing unease among investors, primarily driven by the new leadership's focus on economic growth without immediate interest rate hikes [1][3]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Economic Impact - The yen has weakened significantly, reaching a nine-month low against the dollar at 154.79, raising concerns about the impact on Japan's economy, particularly for an economy reliant on imported energy and materials [1][3]. - The depreciation of the yen has increased import costs, exacerbating inflationary pressures on households and squeezing profits for domestic market-oriented companies, leading to a cost-of-living crisis [3]. - The potential for government intervention in the currency market is heightened by external pressures, including criticism from U.S. officials regarding Japan's currency policies [3][11]. Group 2: Currency Intervention Mechanism - Currency intervention occurs when a central bank actively engages in the foreign exchange market to influence the value of its currency, with Japan's Ministry of Finance determining the timing of such interventions [4]. - Japan's foreign exchange reserves, amounting to $1.15 trillion as of the end of October, are typically used to fund interventions, often involving the sale of U.S. Treasury securities [5]. - The effectiveness of currency intervention is often temporary, serving primarily to signal to speculators that extreme fluctuations in currency value will not be tolerated [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Actions - Japan has historically intervened in the currency market, with recent actions costing nearly $100 billion to support the yen, particularly around the 160 yen per dollar mark [7]. - Officials typically do not confirm interventions immediately, but they do release monthly reports on intervention expenditures to maintain market speculation and enhance the effectiveness of their policy signals [8]. - Verbal interventions by high-ranking officials can also serve to deter market speculation and stabilize the currency [9]. Group 4: Political and Diplomatic Considerations - Currency interventions can lead to significant market volatility, impacting speculative traders and complicating pricing and hedging for businesses [10]. - The political implications of currency intervention are complex, as actions perceived as currency manipulation can attract criticism, particularly if aimed at weakening the yen [10][11]. - Any intervention by Japan is communicated to the U.S. in advance, and if the outcome strengthens the yen, it may receive tacit approval from the Trump administration [12].

Group 1 - The Japanese yen remains under pressure, trading near its lowest level against the US dollar since February 13, due to cautious policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan and optimism regarding the US government's potential to avoid a shutdown [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's October policy meeting summary indicates some members see a possibility of a rate hike in December, although there are differing opinions suggesting a delay until January due to potential economic contraction in Q3 [1][2] - The US Senate has passed a bill to restart the federal government, alleviating the longest government shutdown in history, which has boosted market risk sentiment and further weakened the yen's safe-haven appeal [1][2] Group 2 - Economic scholars estimate that the recent prolonged US government shutdown could lead to a quarterly GDP growth rate decline of approximately 1.5 to 2.0 percentage points, contributing to a sustained pressure on the US dollar [2] - The market remains vigilant regarding potential intervention by the Japanese Ministry of Finance in the currency market, which could hinder further appreciation of the dollar against the yen [2] - The technical outlook for USD/JPY indicates a strong bullish trend, with potential resistance levels at 154.45 to 154.50, and if breached, targets could extend to 155.00 and beyond [4]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周一（11月10日）纽约尾盘，美元兑日元涨0.39%，报154.02日元。欧元兑日元涨0.36%， 英镑兑日元涨0.56%。欧元兑美元跌0.04%，英镑兑美元涨0.15%，美元兑瑞郎跌0.04%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The market showed a weak and volatile trend this week, and the fundamental situation remained relatively loose. The monthly spread changes were relatively small this week [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - As of November 2, there were 2 ships departing from New Zealand in November, all heading to mainland China. It is estimated that 2 ships will arrive in November and 0 in December, with an expected arrival volume of 1.04 million cubic meters in November [4][7]. - New Zealand log shipping schedule data shows two ships departing on November 2, 2025, with a load of 42,000 and 40,820 JAS m3 respectively, both heading to Lanshan Port in China and expected to arrive on November 21 - 22, 2025 [8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending October 31, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 21,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 300 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port had about 1.2608 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port had about 304,000 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 47,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port had about 310,200 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 40,600 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port had about 198,700 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 55,700 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0737 million cubic meters, a decrease of 15,800 cubic meters from the previous week [5][13]. - Inventory data shows detailed changes in the inventory of different ports and timber species over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [14]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of November 7, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 778.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 1.4% from the previous week. The monthly spreads were as follows: the 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 14 yuan per cubic meter, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 27 yuan per cubic meter, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 13 yuan per cubic meter [20]. 3.4 Price and Spread - Log spot price data shows the prices and price changes of different tree species and specifications in Shandong and Jiangsu regions over different time periods, including week - on - week and four - week - on - four - week changes [24]. - The regional price spreads of mainstream timber species show the price differences of different tree species and specifications between Shandong and Jiangsu regions [26][35]. - The price spreads between tree species and specifications show the price differences between different tree species and specifications [43][45]. 3.5 Other - As of the week ending November 9, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2,063 points, an increase of 97 points (+4.9%) from the previous week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 815 points, a decrease of 3.8% from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,495.10 points, a decrease of 3.6% from the previous week [5][58]. - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index remained at a relatively high level recently. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.123, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate increased by 1.7% to 1.777 [5][58].