Core Viewpoint - The European luxury goods industry is facing significant challenges due to currency fluctuations and tariff policies, leading to a decline in stock prices for major luxury groups and a slowdown in market growth [3][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major luxury groups such as LVMH, Hermès, Richemont, and Kering have seen stock price declines of 26.31%, 17.98%, 19.84%, and 13.33% respectively over the past six months [3]. - The MSCI Europe Textile, Apparel, and Luxury Goods Total Return Index has dropped 17% year-to-date, underperforming the broader market by 27% [3]. - NDR's report indicates that the luxury goods sector's growth is slowing, partly due to the fading benefits of favorable exchange rates and the impact of U.S. tariff policies on global consumer confidence [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Results - LVMH reported a 4% decline in revenue and a 22% drop in net profit for the first half of the year, with recurring operating profit down 15% [7]. - Kering's second-quarter sales fell 15% to €3.7 billion, with Gucci's sales down 25% to €1.46 billion [7]. - Hermès experienced an 8% sales growth in the first half, significantly lower than the 15% growth reported in the previous year [7]. Group 3: Structural Challenges - The luxury goods sector is facing deeper structural challenges, including weak consumer confidence and brand value dilution, leading to a loss of approximately 50 million consumers over the past two years [11][12]. - The Z generation has seen a 7% decline in sales, equating to a loss of $5.7 billion in consumption, marking the largest drop among all generations [11]. - High-net-worth individuals are becoming more discerning in their luxury purchases, focusing on value and personalized services [11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Bernstein has revised its global luxury goods revenue growth forecast for 2025 from an increase of 5% to a decrease of 2% [12]. - UBS estimates that luxury brands have increased prices by an average of 33% from 2019 to 2023, which may have overstretched market tolerance [12]. - Following a trade agreement between the U.S. and Europe, a 15% baseline tariff on luxury goods imported from Europe is expected to raise prices in the U.S. by an average of 2% and globally by about 1% [12].

本轮汇率变动主要由于美元快速贬值，欧元相较之下被动升值。市场人士认为，欧元对美元上涨并非因 欧洲经济基本面走强，而是由于美元资产遭大规模抛售。今年以来，欧元对美元的升值幅度已超过 10%。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:张欣然】 德国《证券报》网站报道，许多经济学家认为，美元未来可能继续走弱。美国政府政策反复无常，进一 步削弱了市场对美元的信心。 新华社法兰克福6月26日电（记者刘向）欧元对美元汇率继24日突破1比1.16关口后，26日升至1比 1.171，达到2021年9月以来最高水平。 欧洲央行官网数据显示，26日欧元对美元的参考汇率为1比1.1695。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not concerned about the appreciation of the euro, as stated by President Christine Lagarde, who emphasized that while exchange rates are not a target, they are considered in inflation forecasts [1]. Group 1 - Analysts note that Lagarde did not provide further details on the ECB's stance regarding the euro's exchange rate [1]. - The ECB's current position indicates a lack of immediate concern over the euro's strength [1].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to maintain its current monetary policy, which aligns with market expectations. However, there are concerns regarding the potential for interest rate cuts if the euro continues to appreciate significantly [1] Group 1 - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady was anticipated by market participants [1] - The ongoing press conference is addressing the implications of the euro's strength on future monetary policy decisions [1] - There is speculation about whether ECB President Christine Lagarde will consider reinitiating interest rate cuts in response to a stronger euro [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep its three key interest rates unchanged, marking the first time since June of the previous year that it has not made any adjustments [1] Group 1: Interest Rates - The ECB has maintained the deposit facility rate at 2.00%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40% [1] - This decision reflects the ECB's cautious approach amid ongoing US-EU trade negotiations and the unclear impact of Trump's tariff policies on inflation [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that there is internal disagreement within the ECB regarding the future monetary policy path [1] - Investors generally anticipate that the ECB may lower interest rates once more before the end of the year, potentially in December [1] Group 3: Currency Considerations - The appreciation of the euro is also a significant factor influencing the ECB's decision-making process [1]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar, with recent developments in trade negotiations and economic indicators influencing its value [2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The euro to US dollar exchange rate is currently around 1.1674, down 0.21% from the previous close of 1.1699, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 13% [1]. - Over the past month, the euro has appreciated by 2.18% against the dollar, and by 7.95% over the past year [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered the deposit rate to 2.00% in June and is expected to maintain it this month, with market expectations of a further 25 basis point cut by the end of the year [2]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, raising inflation expectations for 2025 due to tariffs impacting prices [2]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Market Sentiment - Significant progress has been made in EU-US trade negotiations, with a potential framework agreement that may include a 10% baseline tariff and exemptions for key products like Airbus aircraft [2]. - The market is closely monitoring the outcome of these negotiations, as a successful agreement could strengthen the euro further, while uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and global economic fluctuations remain [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The initial resistance level for the euro against the dollar is at 1.1830, with further resistance at 1.1815 and 1.1852 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.1441 (55-day SMA), followed by 1.1210 and 1.1064, with a significant psychological level at 1.1000 [3].

Core Viewpoint - Analysts expect the euro to face a correction in the next one to three months due to potential warnings from European Central Bank (ECB) officials regarding the strong euro [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - The market has observed initial signs of ECB officials attempting to curb the euro's strength [1] - There is a widespread expectation that the German economy will remain weak throughout the year, which, combined with a stronger euro and potential U.S. tariffs, will increase pressure on exporters [1] Group 2: Currency Forecast - The euro is projected to rise to 1.20 against the U.S. dollar within the next 12 months, but a pullback in the euro's recent gains is anticipated in the short term [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes indicate that recent tariff increases and the appreciation of the euro are expected to negatively impact exports [1] Group 1 - The ECB highlighted concerns regarding the adverse effects of tariff hikes on trade dynamics [1] - The recent strengthening of the euro is anticipated to further challenge export competitiveness [1] - The combination of these factors may lead to a slowdown in economic growth within the eurozone [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) official Demarco stated that the appreciation of the euro helps to curb inflation [1] Group 1 - The strengthening of the euro is seen as a positive factor in controlling inflationary pressures within the Eurozone [1]

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank officials, including Demarco, suggest maintaining interest rates unchanged this month, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The appreciation of the euro is seen as beneficial in curbing inflation [1] - The current level of the euro is not considered alarming [1] - There is a need to monitor the pace of euro appreciation [1] Group 2 - The euro is not expected to replace the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency [1]