Workflow
欧线海运舱位
icon
Search documents
集运早报-20250901
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 07:53
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). The average quote for week 36 is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points), and for week 37 is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). Different shipping alliances have different quotes [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, the overall shipping capacity in September has been adjusted down. The OA Alliance's FAL3 will have an additional suspension in week 37. PA & MSC's FE3 will have additional suspensions in weeks 39 and 41 respectively, and FE4 will have an additional suspension in week 41. The average weekly shipping capacities in September and October are 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN ships as suspended, the capacities are 296,000 and 281,000 TEU. The situation in September is relatively loose, and the driving force will continue to be weak for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on the shipping companies' suspension actions. However, in terms of valuation, the 10 - contract is close to the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside. The 12 - contract has a short - term downward driving force, but it is in the peak season and the long - term contract negotiation season, so opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Price and Related Data - EC2510 closed at 1,261.0 with a decline of 1.87%, trading volume of 25,228, and open interest of 53,260 with a decrease of 988. EC2512 closed at 1,562.7 with a decline of 0.53%, trading volume of 7,111, and open interest of 17,323 with an increase of 1,126. EC2602 closed at 1,408.1 with an increase of 0.58%, trading volume of 570, and open interest of 4,689 with an increase of 21. EC2604 closed at 1,204.4 with a decline of 0.95%, trading volume of 1,350, and open interest of 7,136 with an increase of 469. EC2606 closed at 1,376.1 with an increase of 0.15%, trading volume of 89, and open interest of 867 with a decrease of 5 [1]. - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 301.7 compared to - 286.0 the previous day and - 304.5 two days ago, a change of - 15.7. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 154.6 compared to 171.0 the previous day and 179.7 two days ago, a change of - 16.4 [1]. Spot Freight Index - The SCFI (European route) was updated weekly on Mondays and Fridays. As of August 25 and 29, 2025, it was 1,990.2 and 1,481 respectively, with a decline of 8.71% and 11.21% compared to the previous period, and a decline of 2.47% and 8.35% compared to the period before that [1]. - The CCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 1,685.8, a decline of 4.09% compared to the previous period and a decline of 1.83% compared to the period before that [1]. - The NCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 929.56, a decline of 14.23% compared to the previous period and a decline of 8.83% compared to the period before that [1]. Recent European Route Quote Situation - For week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). The PA Alliance's quotes are $2,200 - 2,300, MSK's initial quote was $2,100 (later increased to $2,200), and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,300 - 2,400 [2]. - For week 37, the average quote is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). MSK's quote was initially $1,900 (later increased to $1,940), the PA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,200, and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,300 [1][2]. Related News - On August 31, Israel is set to expand military operations, which may cut off humanitarian aid to Gaza City. Israel will block the airdrop of aid supplies and reduce the number of aid trucks entering Gaza City in the coming days and is preparing to relocate the local population to southern Gaza [3]. - On August 31, multiple key figures were killed in an Israeli air - strike, and the Yemeni Houthi rebels vowed revenge. Hamas confirmed the death of its military leader Muhammad Sinwar [3]. - On August 30, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by President Trump were illegal. These measures can remain in effect until October 14 to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The ruling does not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations, such as steel and aluminum tariffs [3].
集运早报-20250606
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 05:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear - cut core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 contracts' yesterday's closing prices were 1971.1, 2146.3, 1356.0, 1542.0, 1377.0, and 1205.7 respectively, with price changes of 0.04%, - 2.40%, - 1.95%, - 1.79%, - 1.63%, and - 2.70% [2]. - Their corresponding bases were - 718.3, - 893.5, - 103.2, - 289.2, - 124.2, and 47.1; yesterday's trading volumes were 5610, 73378, 12963, 1222, 430, and 443; yesterday's open interests were 8760, 47254, 24021, 4394, 2720, and 3365; and open - interest changes were - 326, - 707, 255, - 57, 33, and 42 respectively [2]. EC Futures Contract Month - to - Month Spreads - Month - to - month spreads like EC2506 - 2508, EC2508 - 2510, EC2506 - 2510, EC2510 - 2512, and EC2512 - 2602 had values, and their day - on - day and week - on - week changes are presented in the report [2]. Spot Freight Rate Indexes - SCFIS (updated weekly on Mondays, announced on 2025/6/2) was 1252.82 points, up 0.46% from the previous period and down 1.44% compared to the same period last year [2]. - SCFI (updated hourly, announced on 2025/5/30) was $1587/TEU, up 20.50% from the previous period [2]. - CCFI (updated weekly, announced on 2025/5/30) was 1375.62 points, down 1.22% from the previous period and down 2.64% compared to the same period last year [2]. - NCFI (updated hourly, announced on 2025/5/30) was 1067.59 points, up 36.25% from the previous period and up 4.35% compared to the same period last year [2]. - TCI (updated daily, announced on 2025/6/4) was 769.36 points, with no change from the previous period [2]. Capacity Arrangement - In June and July 2025, the weekly average capacity will be 297,000 and 314,000 TEU respectively [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - For the second week of June, COSCO&OOΩ's offline price increased by $200, and MSK's online price rose from $2100 to $2400. The average of week 23 converted to the futures price was about 1800 points [3]. - For the second half of June, multiple shipping companies announced price increases. After some price adjustments on June 5, the average freight was about $3000, converting to about 2100 points on the futures market [3]. News - On 6/5, the European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, with the deposit mechanism rate dropping to 2%, the main refinancing rate dropping to 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate dropping to 2.4% [4]. - On 6/6, the Israeli military said Hezbollah's air force was operating and producing thousands of drones, which was a "flagrant violation" of the understanding with Lebanon [4]. - On 6/6, sources said the Israeli army had controlled about 50% of the Gaza Strip [4].