证券研究报告 | 行业策略报告 2025 年 12 月 26 日 关注 2026 年油轮、散货景气上行 航运行业 2026 年策略报告 周期/交通运输 本篇报告回顾了25年航运子板块发展态势，并对各子行业基本面变化进行展望。 26 年油轮、散货行业中大型船市场供需格局相对较好，旺季或有较大弹性。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 128 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3200.5 | 3.0 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2996.3 | 3.1 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 1.8 7.7 8.0 相对表现 -1.6 -9.6 -8.5 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Dec/24 Apr/25 Aug/25 Dec/25 (%) 交通运输 沪深300 相关报告 1、《航空行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 —国庆中秋长航线需求旺盛，国际线 复苏强劲》2025-12-05 2、《快递行业 2025 年 10 月数据跟踪 —10 月业务量增速放缓，单票价格同 比持 ...

策略:逢高小仓位试空02合约。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II GER期货 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | 卢钊毅 | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | 从业资格号:F03101843 | 投资咨询号: Z0021177 | 2025/12/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 综合指数SCFI | 中国出口集装箱运价 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 现值 | | | | | | | | E | | 1506 | 1118 | 1780 | 924 | 2652 | 1538 | | CALL | 前值 | 1398 | 1115 | 1550 | 960 | 2315 | 1400 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | 7.79% | 0.29% | 14.84% | -3.75% | 14.56% | 9.86% | | 指 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to mainstream shipping companies raising spot freight rates in November, port congestion, and the easing of Sino - US tariff tensions, the EC futures盘面 has rebounded. Spot freight rates have stopped falling and started to rebound, and shipping companies have begun to announce price increases for November. The supply and demand situation in the shipping market has certain changes, and there are also risks such as the situation in the Middle East and Sino - US trade relations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Futures Market**: On October 15, 2025, different EC futures contracts showed different price changes. For example, EC2512 closed at 1708.6 points, up 2.06% from the previous day. Trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees. The month - spread structure also showed corresponding price differences and changes [4]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European Line index was 1031.80 points, down 1.40% week - on - week and 56.85% year - on - year. Different shipping routes had different freight rate changes, with some rising and some falling [4]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Analysis**: Shipping companies have announced price increases for November, with the target mostly around 2500 - 2700 US dollars/FEU. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in cargo volume, and the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve. The supply side has relatively stable overall capacity in October and November, with some ship delays and ship - changing phenomena. There are also risks such as the situation in the Middle East and Sino - US trade relations [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side strategy, the remaining long positions of EC2512 can be held, and the near - month contract EC2512 can still be bought on dips. For the arbitrage strategy, the 2 - 4 positive spread can be held and added on dips [8]. 3.3 Industry News - **US - China Tariff News**: On October 13, US Treasury Secretary Bezant said that imposing a 100% tariff on China is not inevitable. He expects more talks between the US and China, and Trump has said that the tariff will not take effect before November 1 [8]. - **Port Worker Strike News**: Workers at the container - handling department of the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands have received a court order to return to work in the next four days. The port currently has a serious backlog of operations [9]. - **Red Sea Situation News**: The first - stage cease - fire agreement in the Palestine - Israel conflict is being implemented, but there are still conflicts. The second - stage negotiation of the cease - fire agreement has complex issues, and the two sides have different positions [10][11]. - **Policy News**: Starting from the trading on October 15, 2025, the maximum number of intraday opening positions for non - futures company members, overseas special non - brokerage participants, and customers in the container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts has been changed from 100 lots to 200 lots, and the daily price limit has been adjusted to 15% [11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of China's port fee policy against U.S. vessels on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) market and dry bulk shipping [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **China's Port Fee Policy**: - China will implement a special port fee for U.S. vessels starting from October 14, 2025, with fees increasing to 1,120 RMB by 2028. The initial fee will be 400 RMB [2][4]. - This policy aims to counter U.S. trade friction and is expected to reduce shipping efficiency, particularly in the VLCC market, leading to tighter supply-demand dynamics [1][2]. 2. **Impact on Shipping Efficiency**: - The high port fees will create a division in shipping capacity, making it harder to match cargo with vessels, thus lowering supply chain efficiency [1][6]. - The U.S. vessels account for 1.2% in container shipping, 1.0% in bulk shipping, and 2.1% in tanker shipping, with actual international shipping participation being lower due to domestic protection policies [2][3]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: - China's iron ore and crude oil imports represent 75% and 24% of global imports, respectively, making the new regulations significantly impactful on these transport sectors [2][3]. - The current market for crude oil transportation is tight, especially in the Middle East, exacerbated by the new port fee policy [5][10]. 4. **Long-term Market Benefits**: - While the policy may cause short-term disruptions, it is expected to benefit the tanker and bulk shipping markets in the long run by increasing freight rates [3][12]. - The increase in production from non-OPEC regions and ongoing sanctions against Iran are seen as positive drivers for the VLCC market [10][11]. 5. **Uncertainties in Implementation**: - There are uncertainties regarding the specifics of the policy implementation, particularly how ownership and operational control will be defined, which could expand the policy's impact [4][6]. 6. **Geopolitical Influences**: - Geopolitical events, such as conflicts and trade policies, are likely to create volatility in the shipping market, potentially benefiting VLCC and bulk shipping rates [14][15]. Additional Important Insights - **Dry Bulk Market**: The dry bulk market is experiencing steady demand growth, supported by long-distance mineral transport projects and a potential increase in trade activity due to a favorable monetary policy environment [15]. - **Recommended Stocks**: The most promising stocks include China Merchants Energy Shipping, Central Huijin, and dry bulk-related stocks like Haitong Development and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are expected to benefit from the current market conditions [16]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the implications of China's port fee policy on the shipping industry and the broader market dynamics at play.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the European route is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The growth rate of demand on the European route is expected to slow down from the second half of 2025 due to factors such as weak European exports, inventory cycle changes, and a high trade base [2][13][14] - The over - supply pressure on the European route persists, although the new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down in the fourth quarter. Market competition is intensifying, and the spill - over of other routes' pressure may exacerbate the situation [3][41] - The freight rate on the European route may have a short - term rebound during the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. There are investment opportunities in the 12 - contract under certain conditions [4][48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Slowdown in European Route Demand Growth - The growth momentum of US - EU trade has weakened in the short term due to a higher - than - expected tariff level in the trade agreement and the overdraft of forward demand caused by early restocking in the US [13] - The US may have entered the active destocking phase, and given the strong linkage of the inventory cycle between the US and Europe, the restocking momentum in Europe is weakening, which may suppress European import demand [13] - Despite the slowdown in demand growth, Asia - Europe trade will maintain a high base due to capacity substitution. The price gap between China and Europe is difficult to narrow quickly, and the trade deficit continues to expand [13][14] 3.2. Impact of the Delayed Spring Festival on the Peak - Season Cargo Volume Rhythm - Affected by the National Day holiday, the Asia - Europe trade demand in October is expected to decline significantly month - on - month. The demand is expected to gradually recover in November and enter the traditional peak season in December [29] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 will relieve the freight pressure during the peak season, and the monthly freight volume distribution from December to February next year will be more balanced [29] 3.3. Slower New Ship Delivery and Weaker Impact on the European Route - The pressure of capacity growth on the European route is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down, and the capacity growth rate of large - scale container ships has decreased [33] - The current European route capacity is relatively saturated. New ships to be delivered in the fourth quarter are likely to be used for other routes or replacement of existing ships, with limited additional capacity supply for the European route [33][35] 3.4. Persistent Excess Pressure and Vigilance against Marginal Disturbances - The supply ceiling on the European route has increased, and the capacity gap has narrowed, resulting in an oversupply situation. The upper - limit capacity is 8% - 13% higher than the critical value, suppressing the market [41] - The market structure on the European route has changed from oligopoly to oligopolistic competition, intensifying price - cutting competition among shipping companies [41] - The profit contraction of other routes may spread to the European route, exacerbating its existing excess pressure [44][45] 3.5. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - As of mid - September, the average price of large containers on the European route has fallen below the low point of the first half of the year. Ship companies may take suspension measures, but the actual scale of suspension is expected to be limited, and it is difficult for the freight rate to stabilize and rebound [48] - During the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, the freight rate may have a short - term rebound, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. After the short - term rebound, the freight rate is expected to fall back to near the cost line [48] - The 10 - 12 contract spread exceeds 400 points, and the long - position allocation value of the 12 - contract above 1500 points is limited. If the spot price continues to fall, there may be an opportunity to go long on the 12 - contract at a low level [49] - It is recommended to view the 12 - 02 spread trend with an oscillatory mindset and pay attention to short - term positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread converges to par or discount [49]

Report Overview - Report Title: Shipping Derivatives Data Daily Report [4] - Date: September 11, 2025 [5] - Researcher: Lu Zhaoyi from the Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of the shipping market is complex, with different trends in different routes and contracts. The EC market shows a volatile trend, and the spot freight rates have not stopped falling. It is recommended to short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [8][9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1444, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous value of 1445 [5] - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1149, a decrease of 0.62% from the previous value of 1156 [5] - **SCFI - US West**: The current value is 2189, an increase of 13.83% from the previous value of 1923 [5] - **SCFIS - US West**: The current value is 980, a decrease of 3.26% from the previous value of 1013 [5] - **SCFI - US East**: The current value is 3073, an increase of 7.22% from the previous value of 2866 [5] - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1315, a decrease of 11.21% from the previous value of 1481 [5] - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1566, a decrease of 11.68% from the previous value of 1773 [5] - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 1971, a decrease of 8.11% from the previous value of 2145 [5] Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts such as EC2506, EC2608, etc., the price changes range from -0.85% to 0.66% [5] - **Contract Positions**: For positions such as EC2606, EC2608, etc., the changes range from 17 to 729 [5] - **Monthly Spreads**: The current values of 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 monthly spreads are -406.6, 150.0, and 428.0 respectively, with changes of 7.6, -5.5, and 1.8 [5] Market News - **Trade Focus Shift**: Tariffs are accelerating the shift of China's trade focus, with Southeast Asia and Africa becoming the main growth points. From January to July 2025, the direct - call voyages from China to Vietnam increased by 22% year - on - year, and the monthly number exceeded 300 since March [6] - **Trade Negotiation Strategy**: Beijing has adopted a new stance in Sino - US trade negotiations, maintaining dialogue but making few concessions, resulting in a subtle "easing" but no substantial trade agreement in the short term [6] - **Trans - Pacific Demand**: The suspension of services by Premier Alliance indicates a decline in trans - Pacific demand, and the number of empty voyages on the US East Coast increased in the first week of September [6] - **India - Europe Route**: The freight rates on the India - Europe route have been lowered due to the normalization of capacity and the lack of obvious peak - season demand. Freight forwarders expect further declines in September, with rates per TEU possibly dropping to $1,100 - $1,200 [6] - **Tariff Ruling**: The Federal Circuit Court of Appeals (CAFC) ruled that Trump exceeded his authority in imposing "fentanyl tariffs" and "reciprocal tariffs" under the IEEPA, but the ruling is suspended until October 14, 2025. The government has appealed to the Supreme Court [6][7] Container Freight Prices - **GBMINI**: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. Maersk's wk38 opening price is 1700; HPL - QQ is 1900 in September, and HPL - SPOT is 1550 [9] - **O1**: The overall average of the alliance is 1950; CMA is 2000, and OOCL is 1900 [9] - **PA**: The overall average of the alliance is 1800. ONE is 2100, and HMM is 1700 - 1900 [9] - **MSC**: The reported price in September is 2050 [9] - **Logic**: Maersk's wk39 opening price is 1550, a decrease of 150 from the previous week. OCC1 has dropped to 1600, and there may be further price drops in September. As market optimism fades and attention refocuses on spot quotes, spot freight rates have not stopped falling. Pre - holiday stockpiling before October 1st may lead to price competition in the second half of September, and the transfer of some US - bound ships to European routes increases supply and further pressures freight rates [9] Strategy - Short at high levels in October and conduct a rolling 10 - 12 reverse spread [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). The average quote for week 36 is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points), and for week 37 is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). Different shipping alliances have different quotes [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, the overall shipping capacity in September has been adjusted down. The OA Alliance's FAL3 will have an additional suspension in week 37. PA & MSC's FE3 will have additional suspensions in weeks 39 and 41 respectively, and FE4 will have an additional suspension in week 41. The average weekly shipping capacities in September and October are 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN ships as suspended, the capacities are 296,000 and 281,000 TEU. The situation in September is relatively loose, and the driving force will continue to be weak for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on the shipping companies' suspension actions. However, in terms of valuation, the 10 - contract is close to the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside. The 12 - contract has a short - term downward driving force, but it is in the peak season and the long - term contract negotiation season, so opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Price and Related Data - EC2510 closed at 1,261.0 with a decline of 1.87%, trading volume of 25,228, and open interest of 53,260 with a decrease of 988. EC2512 closed at 1,562.7 with a decline of 0.53%, trading volume of 7,111, and open interest of 17,323 with an increase of 1,126. EC2602 closed at 1,408.1 with an increase of 0.58%, trading volume of 570, and open interest of 4,689 with an increase of 21. EC2604 closed at 1,204.4 with a decline of 0.95%, trading volume of 1,350, and open interest of 7,136 with an increase of 469. EC2606 closed at 1,376.1 with an increase of 0.15%, trading volume of 89, and open interest of 867 with a decrease of 5 [1]. - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 301.7 compared to - 286.0 the previous day and - 304.5 two days ago, a change of - 15.7. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 154.6 compared to 171.0 the previous day and 179.7 two days ago, a change of - 16.4 [1]. Spot Freight Index - The SCFI (European route) was updated weekly on Mondays and Fridays. As of August 25 and 29, 2025, it was 1,990.2 and 1,481 respectively, with a decline of 8.71% and 11.21% compared to the previous period, and a decline of 2.47% and 8.35% compared to the period before that [1]. - The CCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 1,685.8, a decline of 4.09% compared to the previous period and a decline of 1.83% compared to the period before that [1]. - The NCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 929.56, a decline of 14.23% compared to the previous period and a decline of 8.83% compared to the period before that [1]. Recent European Route Quote Situation - For week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). The PA Alliance's quotes are $2,200 - 2,300, MSK's initial quote was $2,100 (later increased to $2,200), and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,300 - 2,400 [2]. - For week 37, the average quote is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). MSK's quote was initially $1,900 (later increased to $1,940), the PA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,200, and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,300 [1][2]. Related News - On August 31, Israel is set to expand military operations, which may cut off humanitarian aid to Gaza City. Israel will block the airdrop of aid supplies and reduce the number of aid trucks entering Gaza City in the coming days and is preparing to relocate the local population to southern Gaza [3]. - On August 31, multiple key figures were killed in an Israeli air - strike, and the Yemeni Houthi rebels vowed revenge. Hamas confirmed the death of its military leader Muhammad Sinwar [3]. - On August 30, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by President Trump were illegal. These measures can remain in effect until October 14 to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The ruling does not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations, such as steel and aluminum tariffs [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. to pause additional tariffs for 90 days has led to a surge in shipping demand as traders rush to export goods to the U.S. to avoid potential future tariff increases [1][4]. Group 1: Shipping Demand and Rates - As of May 30, shipping rates from China to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast reached $5,172/FEU and $6,243/FEU, marking increases of 57.9% and 45.7% respectively compared to the previous week [3]. - The Ningbo Shipping Exchange reported an even higher increase, with rates from China to the U.S. West Coast rising by 89.23% and to the East Coast by 69.7% [3]. - The surge in shipping rates is primarily driven by "export rush" due to high transportation demand, with overall shipping capacity returning to pre-trade war levels, although space availability remains tight [3][4]. Group 2: Import Order Growth - A report from Vizion indicated a significant week-on-week increase in import orders from China to the U.S. between May 12 and 18, with furniture orders skyrocketing from 6,695 TEU to 30,728 TEU, a 358% increase [3]. - Orders for toys and sports goods also saw a substantial rise, increasing from 3,845 TEU to 14,574 TEU, nearly a 280% increase [3]. - Other categories such as seafood and steel products experienced growth rates of 406% and 347% respectively [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the current surge in freight demand resembles the initial phase of the pandemic, leading to supply chain bottlenecks as factories and container ships struggle to keep up [4]. - The shipping rates for the week of June 16 to 22 saw further increases, with rates for the U.S. West Coast reaching $8,346/FEU and for the East Coast reaching $9,273/FEU [4]. - Despite the temporary pause in tariff increases, the uncertainty surrounding future U.S. trade policies continues to loom, prompting exporters to capitalize on the current "window period" to maximize shipments [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The market is in a state of shock. The average price in early May was $1700, which has fallen below the long - term agreement price. Airlines plan to raise prices in late May and June, but due to loose capacity in late May, the early - May quotes are expected to continue. The spot freight rate has fallen below the long - term agreement price and is close to the cost line, with limited downward space. The European line freight rate is in a state of oversupply, and the market is still not optimistic. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and the cabin opening situation in June, as the cabin opening price in June is related to the trends of the 06 and 08 contracts [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Rate Index - **SCFI and CCFI**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1341, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous value. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 0, a decrease of 100.00%. Among its sub - indices, SCFI - West US increased by 6.12%, SCFIS - West US by 7.37%, SCFI - East US by 0.80%, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 4.76%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.49%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 1.88% [2]. - **EC Contracts**: For EC contracts, the current values of EC2506, EC2508, etc. have different changes compared to the previous values. For example, EC2506 decreased by 1.87%, and EC2508 increased by 0.28%. The positions of these contracts also changed, with EC2506's position increasing by 2618 and EC2508's by 1199 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Differences**: The current month - to - month differences for 6 - 8, 8 - 10, and 10 - 12 contracts are - 210.4, 244.9, and - 185.0 respectively, with corresponding changes compared to the previous values [2]. Industry News - **Capacity Transfer**: The slowdown of China's exports to the US has led Chinese manufacturers to offer promotions to European importers. The new capacity may stabilize the Asia - Europe shipping route, but there will be violent fluctuations in Asia - Europe capacity if the China - US situation eases [2]. - **Retail and Supply Chain**: Due to the China - US tariff dispute, large retailers' suppliers warn of significant price increases and supply shortages during the holiday season. The cargo transportation volume during the holiday season has decreased by more than 50% year - on - year [3]. - **Tariff Policies**: The US has imposed a 25% tariff on most auto parts since May 2, but parts from Canada or Mexico produced by workers with an hourly wage of over $16 are exempt [3]. - **Shipping Companies' Surcharges**: Maersk will impose a peak - season surcharge of $2000 - $2500 per container on goods from the Middle East and the Indian sub - continent to the US and Canadian East Coasts from June 1. Hapag - Lloyd announced a $1000 per - container freight increase surcharge from the same date [4]. - **Market Response in Europe**: European retailers show little interest in Chinese manufacturers' promotion plans. The proportion of sailings cancelled on the Asia - Europe route in May decreased, and the capacity reached a record high [4]. - **New Index and Port Issues**: The New York Shipping Exchange (NYSHEX) launched two new indices for US import container transportation. Nordic ports are facing long - term congestion problems [5]. - **US West Coast Ports**: Los Angeles Port plans to cancel 17 sailings in May and 12 in June [6]. - **Political Tensions**: Trump threatened to impose new large - scale sanctions on China for buying Iranian oil [6].