大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 10 月 15 日 航运日报 研究员：贾瑞林 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | 银河期货集运指数(欧线)日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 増减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 増减幅 | | EC2510 | 1.120.6 | -15.6 | -1.37% | 3.412.0 | -30.32% | 11,335.0 | -13.84% | | EC2512 | 1,708.6 | 34.5 | 2.06% | 42.616.0 | -8.76% | 27,023.0 | -0.62% | | EC2602 | 1.463.4 | -1.0 | -0.07% | 8,209.0 | -20.29% | 9.822.0 | 1.15% | | EC2604 | 1,142.0 | -8.0 | -0.70% | 4,498.0 | -3 ...

中国反制美国港口费用政策对航运市场的影响是什么？ 中国交通部近期宣布对美国相关主体船舶收取特别港口费，这一政策旨在应对 美方的贸易摩擦。此举将进一步割裂全球运力结构，降低供应链效率，尤其影 响到 VLCC（超大型油轮）市场。中国的反制措施包括五个维度：船舶所有权、 运营权、控制权（25%以上股权或表决权）、船籍和建造地。从 2025 年 10 月 14 日起，首期收费标准为 400 人民币，到 2028 年逐步提高至 1,120 人民 币。 这一政策将导致短期内船货匹配效率下降，尤其是在 VLCC 市场本就紧张 的情况下，使得供需关系进一步紧张。具体来看，美国相关船舶在集装箱运输、 散货运输和油轮运输中的占比分别为 1.2%、1.0%和 2.1%。其中，美国内贸 保护政策使得实际参与国际海运竞争的运力占比更低，例如集装箱船仅占 0.7%。 从需求角度看，中国铁矿石海运进口占全球 75%，原油及凝析油进口 占 24%，其中 VLOC（超大型矿砂船）占 38%。因此，铁矿石和原油运输受 中国反制美对华船舶港口费，供应链效率扰动下强基本面 大船或更受益 20251012 摘要 中国对美资船舶实施港口收费反制，短期内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the European route is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The growth rate of demand on the European route is expected to slow down from the second half of 2025 due to factors such as weak European exports, inventory cycle changes, and a high trade base [2][13][14] - The over - supply pressure on the European route persists, although the new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down in the fourth quarter. Market competition is intensifying, and the spill - over of other routes' pressure may exacerbate the situation [3][41] - The freight rate on the European route may have a short - term rebound during the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. There are investment opportunities in the 12 - contract under certain conditions [4][48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Slowdown in European Route Demand Growth - The growth momentum of US - EU trade has weakened in the short term due to a higher - than - expected tariff level in the trade agreement and the overdraft of forward demand caused by early restocking in the US [13] - The US may have entered the active destocking phase, and given the strong linkage of the inventory cycle between the US and Europe, the restocking momentum in Europe is weakening, which may suppress European import demand [13] - Despite the slowdown in demand growth, Asia - Europe trade will maintain a high base due to capacity substitution. The price gap between China and Europe is difficult to narrow quickly, and the trade deficit continues to expand [13][14] 3.2. Impact of the Delayed Spring Festival on the Peak - Season Cargo Volume Rhythm - Affected by the National Day holiday, the Asia - Europe trade demand in October is expected to decline significantly month - on - month. The demand is expected to gradually recover in November and enter the traditional peak season in December [29] - The delayed Spring Festival in 2026 will relieve the freight pressure during the peak season, and the monthly freight volume distribution from December to February next year will be more balanced [29] 3.3. Slower New Ship Delivery and Weaker Impact on the European Route - The pressure of capacity growth on the European route is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. The new ship delivery rhythm has slowed down, and the capacity growth rate of large - scale container ships has decreased [33] - The current European route capacity is relatively saturated. New ships to be delivered in the fourth quarter are likely to be used for other routes or replacement of existing ships, with limited additional capacity supply for the European route [33][35] 3.4. Persistent Excess Pressure and Vigilance against Marginal Disturbances - The supply ceiling on the European route has increased, and the capacity gap has narrowed, resulting in an oversupply situation. The upper - limit capacity is 8% - 13% higher than the critical value, suppressing the market [41] - The market structure on the European route has changed from oligopoly to oligopolistic competition, intensifying price - cutting competition among shipping companies [41] - The profit contraction of other routes may spread to the European route, exacerbating its existing excess pressure [44][45] 3.5. Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - As of mid - September, the average price of large containers on the European route has fallen below the low point of the first half of the year. Ship companies may take suspension measures, but the actual scale of suspension is expected to be limited, and it is difficult for the freight rate to stabilize and rebound [48] - During the year - end peak season and long - term agreement signing season, the freight rate may have a short - term rebound, but the possibility of continuous rebound is weak. After the short - term rebound, the freight rate is expected to fall back to near the cost line [48] - The 10 - 12 contract spread exceeds 400 points, and the long - position allocation value of the 12 - contract above 1500 points is limited. If the spot price continues to fall, there may be an opportunity to go long on the 12 - contract at a low level [49] - It is recommended to view the 12 - 02 spread trend with an oscillatory mindset and pay attention to short - term positive arbitrage opportunities when the spread converges to par or discount [49]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 II CEREK 航运衍生品数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钊毅 | 投资咨询号：Z0021177 | | 2025/9/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | 从业资格号:F03101843 | | | | | | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | 现值 | 1444 | 1149 | 2189 | 980 | 3073 | 1315 | | | 前值 | 1445 | 1156 | 1923 | 1013 | 2866 | 1481 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -0.04% | -0.62% | 13.83% | -3.26% | 7.22% | -11.21% | | חמ | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCF ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). The average quote for week 36 is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points), and for week 37 is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). Different shipping alliances have different quotes [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, the overall shipping capacity in September has been adjusted down. The OA Alliance's FAL3 will have an additional suspension in week 37. PA & MSC's FE3 will have additional suspensions in weeks 39 and 41 respectively, and FE4 will have an additional suspension in week 41. The average weekly shipping capacities in September and October are 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN ships as suspended, the capacities are 296,000 and 281,000 TEU. The situation in September is relatively loose, and the driving force will continue to be weak for at least the next two weeks. The decline in October depends on the shipping companies' suspension actions. However, in terms of valuation, the 10 - contract is close to the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downside. The 12 - contract has a short - term downward driving force, but it is in the peak season and the long - term contract negotiation season, so opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contract Price and Related Data - EC2510 closed at 1,261.0 with a decline of 1.87%, trading volume of 25,228, and open interest of 53,260 with a decrease of 988. EC2512 closed at 1,562.7 with a decline of 0.53%, trading volume of 7,111, and open interest of 17,323 with an increase of 1,126. EC2602 closed at 1,408.1 with an increase of 0.58%, trading volume of 570, and open interest of 4,689 with an increase of 21. EC2604 closed at 1,204.4 with a decline of 0.95%, trading volume of 1,350, and open interest of 7,136 with an increase of 469. EC2606 closed at 1,376.1 with an increase of 0.15%, trading volume of 89, and open interest of 867 with a decrease of 5 [1]. - The month - spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 301.7 compared to - 286.0 the previous day and - 304.5 two days ago, a change of - 15.7. The month - spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 154.6 compared to 171.0 the previous day and 179.7 two days ago, a change of - 16.4 [1]. Spot Freight Index - The SCFI (European route) was updated weekly on Mondays and Fridays. As of August 25 and 29, 2025, it was 1,990.2 and 1,481 respectively, with a decline of 8.71% and 11.21% compared to the previous period, and a decline of 2.47% and 8.35% compared to the period before that [1]. - The CCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 1,685.8, a decline of 4.09% compared to the previous period and a decline of 1.83% compared to the period before that [1]. - The NCFI was updated weekly. As of August 29, 2025, it was 929.56, a decline of 14.23% compared to the previous period and a decline of 8.83% compared to the period before that [1]. Recent European Route Quote Situation - For week 36, the latest quotes from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). The PA Alliance's quotes are $2,200 - 2,300, MSK's initial quote was $2,100 (later increased to $2,200), and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,300 - 2,400 [2]. - For week 37, the average quote is $2,125 (equivalent to 1,450 points). MSK's quote was initially $1,900 (later increased to $1,940), the PA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,200, and the OA Alliance's quotes are $2,100 - 2,300 [1][2]. Related News - On August 31, Israel is set to expand military operations, which may cut off humanitarian aid to Gaza City. Israel will block the airdrop of aid supplies and reduce the number of aid trucks entering Gaza City in the coming days and is preparing to relocate the local population to southern Gaza [3]. - On August 31, multiple key figures were killed in an Israeli air - strike, and the Yemeni Houthi rebels vowed revenge. Hamas confirmed the death of its military leader Muhammad Sinwar [3]. - On August 30, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by President Trump were illegal. These measures can remain in effect until October 14 to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court. The ruling does not affect tariffs imposed under other regulations, such as steel and aluminum tariffs [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between China and the U.S. to pause additional tariffs for 90 days has led to a surge in shipping demand as traders rush to export goods to the U.S. to avoid potential future tariff increases [1][4]. Group 1: Shipping Demand and Rates - As of May 30, shipping rates from China to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast reached $5,172/FEU and $6,243/FEU, marking increases of 57.9% and 45.7% respectively compared to the previous week [3]. - The Ningbo Shipping Exchange reported an even higher increase, with rates from China to the U.S. West Coast rising by 89.23% and to the East Coast by 69.7% [3]. - The surge in shipping rates is primarily driven by "export rush" due to high transportation demand, with overall shipping capacity returning to pre-trade war levels, although space availability remains tight [3][4]. Group 2: Import Order Growth - A report from Vizion indicated a significant week-on-week increase in import orders from China to the U.S. between May 12 and 18, with furniture orders skyrocketing from 6,695 TEU to 30,728 TEU, a 358% increase [3]. - Orders for toys and sports goods also saw a substantial rise, increasing from 3,845 TEU to 14,574 TEU, nearly a 280% increase [3]. - Other categories such as seafood and steel products experienced growth rates of 406% and 347% respectively [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the current surge in freight demand resembles the initial phase of the pandemic, leading to supply chain bottlenecks as factories and container ships struggle to keep up [4]. - The shipping rates for the week of June 16 to 22 saw further increases, with rates for the U.S. West Coast reaching $8,346/FEU and for the East Coast reaching $9,273/FEU [4]. - Despite the temporary pause in tariff increases, the uncertainty surrounding future U.S. trade policies continues to loom, prompting exporters to capitalize on the current "window period" to maximize shipments [4][5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The market is in a state of shock. The average price in early May was $1700, which has fallen below the long - term agreement price. Airlines plan to raise prices in late May and June, but due to loose capacity in late May, the early - May quotes are expected to continue. The spot freight rate has fallen below the long - term agreement price and is close to the cost line, with limited downward space. The European line freight rate is in a state of oversupply, and the market is still not optimistic. Attention should be paid to US tariff policies and the cabin opening situation in June, as the cabin opening price in June is related to the trends of the 06 and 08 contracts [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Rate Index - **SCFI and CCFI**: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1341, a decrease of 0.51% from the previous value. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 0, a decrease of 100.00%. Among its sub - indices, SCFI - West US increased by 6.12%, SCFIS - West US by 7.37%, SCFI - East US by 0.80%, and SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 4.76%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 3.49%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 1.88% [2]. - **EC Contracts**: For EC contracts, the current values of EC2506, EC2508, etc. have different changes compared to the previous values. For example, EC2506 decreased by 1.87%, and EC2508 increased by 0.28%. The positions of these contracts also changed, with EC2506's position increasing by 2618 and EC2508's by 1199 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Differences**: The current month - to - month differences for 6 - 8, 8 - 10, and 10 - 12 contracts are - 210.4, 244.9, and - 185.0 respectively, with corresponding changes compared to the previous values [2]. Industry News - **Capacity Transfer**: The slowdown of China's exports to the US has led Chinese manufacturers to offer promotions to European importers. The new capacity may stabilize the Asia - Europe shipping route, but there will be violent fluctuations in Asia - Europe capacity if the China - US situation eases [2]. - **Retail and Supply Chain**: Due to the China - US tariff dispute, large retailers' suppliers warn of significant price increases and supply shortages during the holiday season. The cargo transportation volume during the holiday season has decreased by more than 50% year - on - year [3]. - **Tariff Policies**: The US has imposed a 25% tariff on most auto parts since May 2, but parts from Canada or Mexico produced by workers with an hourly wage of over $16 are exempt [3]. - **Shipping Companies' Surcharges**: Maersk will impose a peak - season surcharge of $2000 - $2500 per container on goods from the Middle East and the Indian sub - continent to the US and Canadian East Coasts from June 1. Hapag - Lloyd announced a $1000 per - container freight increase surcharge from the same date [4]. - **Market Response in Europe**: European retailers show little interest in Chinese manufacturers' promotion plans. The proportion of sailings cancelled on the Asia - Europe route in May decreased, and the capacity reached a record high [4]. - **New Index and Port Issues**: The New York Shipping Exchange (NYSHEX) launched two new indices for US import container transportation. Nordic ports are facing long - term congestion problems [5]. - **US West Coast Ports**: Los Angeles Port plans to cancel 17 sailings in May and 12 in June [6]. - **Political Tensions**: Trump threatened to impose new large - scale sanctions on China for buying Iranian oil [6].