Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The cease - fire progress in the Israel - Hamas conflict has boosted the expectation of resuming shipping on the European line, causing far - month contracts to decline, especially the 2026 contracts with a decline of over 10% [1]. - The resumption of shipping will lead to a significant oversupply of the European line fleet, and the supply pressure may exceed that in 2023. The supply pressure is expected to continue due to the fast - paced new ship deliveries and the difficulty of demand growth to match the supply growth [1]. - Far - month, especially off - season contracts, will continue to be under pressure. The cease - fire negotiation is accelerating, and the spot price has been weak since August, limiting the upside space of next year's off - season contracts [2]. - For contracts within this year, airlines' willingness to raise prices is expected to increase. With the Christmas cargo volume expected to rise, the 12 - month contract may be relatively firm but will likely fluctuate widely under the influence of multiple factors [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Impact of the Cease - fire on Shipping Contracts - On October 8, the cease - fire agreement between Hamas and Israel boosted the expectation of resuming shipping, leading to a decline in far - month contracts on the European line, with the 2026 contracts falling by over 10% [1]. Reasons for the Decline in Far - Month Contracts - After ships were attacked in the Red Sea and detoured around the Cape of Good Hope, the European line's shipping capacity increased by about 25% compared to November 2023, while the demand from January to August this year only increased by 19%. The resumption of shipping will cause a significant oversupply [1]. - The 12000 + TEU fleet suitable for the European and American lines is expected to grow by 8% by 2026, and the demand is difficult to match this supply growth under the background of increasing global trade barriers [1]. Pricing of the Resumption of Shipping in the Market - Referring to the 2023 Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS), the average value of the European route was 887.7 points before the detour, with a low of 597.17 points in October and a high of 1159.44 points in December [2]. Outlook for Far - Month Contracts - Far - month, especially off - season contracts, will continue to be under pressure. The cease - fire negotiation is accelerating, and the spot price has been weak since August, so next year's off - season contracts may use this year's low as a reference, with limited upside space [2]. Outlook for Contracts within this Year - Airlines' willingness to raise prices is expected to increase. Some airlines have announced price increases from mid - October, and more 11 - month price increase plans are expected. With the Christmas cargo volume rising, if airlines implement empty - flight measures, it may boost the market [3]. - The 12 - month contract may be relatively firm due to the low probability of resuming shipping within this year and the peak - season expectation. However, under the influence of the resumption expectation and over - capacity, the average long - term contract price this year is expected to be lower than last year, and the contract is expected to fluctuate widely [3].