航运日报 2025 年 12 月 25 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 研究所 航运研发报告 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,608.0 | 2.1 | 0.13% | 112.0 | -19.42% | 1,714.0 | -4.25% | | EC2602 | 1,799.7 | 3.9 | 0.22% | 28,762.0 | 21.33% | 34,250.0 | -0.19% | | EC2604 | 1,164.5 | -0.5 | -0.04% | 6,267.0 | 22.09% | 21,254.0 | 1.26 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is pessimistic about the future freight rate height. Afternoon trading was affected by the news that the Houthi armed forces announced a halt to attacks on Red Sea merchant ships, strengthening the expectation of far - month resumption of navigation, causing a plunge in EC futures [6]. - The spot freight rate is basically in line with expectations. Although the resumption of navigation expectation has strengthened, it is still difficult to achieve large - scale resumption of navigation in the short term [6]. - In the second half of November, the upward momentum of freight rates weakens, and the freight rate height in December may be limited. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment actions of other shipping companies [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On November 12, EC2512 closed at 1749.4 points, up 0.19% from the previous day's closing price. On November 7, the SCFI European line was reported at $1323/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. The latest SCFIS European line reported after Monday's trading was 1504.8 points, a month - on - month increase of 24.5% [4][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shipping companies' long - term contract cargo has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November is weakening. MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote for Week 48 decreased by $250 compared with last week. The freight rate in December may be limited. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment actions of other shipping companies. The demand from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and the current supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively sufficient, but there is still an expectation of price support [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the EC2602 contract, it is recommended to go long at low prices with a light position, and be vigilant against the risk of resumption of navigation. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. Industry News - On November 11, COSCO Shipping Specialized Transport Co., Ltd. launched three liner series products, including Southeast Asia heavy - lift liner, Northwest Europe liner, and Persian Gulf liner routes [9]. - The US envoy Kushner discussed the second - phase peace agreement for Gaza with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [10]. - The US military is studying the establishment of a temporary base near the Gaza Strip to accommodate 10,000 people to supervise the cease - fire between Israel and Hamas [10]. Data Presentation - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages of different EC futures contracts on November 12 are presented. The price differences and their changes between different contracts are also shown [4]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The weekly container freight rates, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of various routes are provided, including the SCFIS European line, SCFIS US West line, and various SCFI routes [4]. - **Fuel Costs**: The prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil near - month contracts are given [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is rated as 1, indicating a "neutral" view on the market trend, with the range of trend strength being an integer within the [-2, 2] interval [14]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) showed a low - opening rebound yesterday. Looking forward, the market trading has three main lines: the European line's own fundamentals, resumption of shipping expectations, and macro - sentiment disturbances caused by changes in Sino - US tariff policies [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2510 closed at 1,129.4 with a daily increase of 0.35%, EC2512 at 1,562.5 with a daily decrease of 2.65%, and EC2602 at 1,359.9 with a daily decrease of 0.40%. The difference between EC2512 and EC2604 is 464.0, and the difference between EC2602 and EC2604 is 261.4 [1]. - **Freight Index Data**: On October 13, 2025, the SCFIS European route index was 1,031.80 points, down 1.4% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 862.48 points, down 1.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1,068/TEU, up 10.0% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1,468/FEU, up 0.5% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Data**: For European line spot freight from Shanghai to Rotterdam, prices range from $1,806 - $2,292 for 40'GP and $1,085 - $1,605 for 20'GP among different carriers [1]. - **Exchange Rate Data**: The US dollar index was 98.84, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.12 [1]. 3.2 Capacity Analysis - **October**: The weekly average capacity was revised down from 26.5 to 25.7 TEU/week before the holiday, mainly due to many delayed sailings on the FE4 route. The spot market will mainly handle cargo for weeks 43 and 44 next week, corresponding to capacity supplies of 290,000 and 335,000 TEU respectively, with sufficient cabin space [11]. - **November**: The weekly average capacity was 307,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), a 19% month - on - month increase and an 8.9% year - on - year increase. Key points include new sailings cancellations on COSCO's AEU7, pending voyages on CMA's FAL1 and Evergreen's CES in week 48, 2 actual empty sailings on the PA alliance's Northwest European route, and MSC's full - sail operation in November [11]. - **December**: There are 6 pending and 3 empty sailings, with a weekly average capacity of 295,000 TEU/week (excluding pending voyages), and there is room for significant revision due to many pending voyages [11]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - **EC2510 Contract**: Expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [12]. - **EC2512 Contract**: The peak - season attribute cannot be ignored. There are both positive and negative views. Positive factors include investors' TACO trading expectations and the resilience of the European line's fundamentals. Negative factors include uncertainties in the trade war and the possibility of the market significantly discounting if the price increase in early November fails to materialize [13]. - **EC2602 Contract**: The key points are the impact of the later Spring Festival in 2026, the uncertainty of resumption of shipping in February, and the valuation mainly depending on the freight level in January [13]. - **EC2604 Contract**: With the increasing pressure of over - capacity, its upper - limit valuation can be anchored to EC2510, and the lower - limit space may expand further with the shipping companies' resumption of shipping schedule [14]. 3.4 Macro News - The US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey signed a Gaza cease - fire agreement in Sharm El - Sheikh, Egypt on October 13, 2025. The "Peace Summit" was hosted by Egyptian President Sisi and US President Trump [9]. - The US Middle East Envoy, Wietkof, will stay in Egypt for a long time at the instruction of President Trump [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The cease - fire progress in the Israel - Hamas conflict has boosted the expectation of resuming shipping on the European line, causing far - month contracts to decline, especially the 2026 contracts with a decline of over 10% [1]. - The resumption of shipping will lead to a significant oversupply of the European line fleet, and the supply pressure may exceed that in 2023. The supply pressure is expected to continue due to the fast - paced new ship deliveries and the difficulty of demand growth to match the supply growth [1]. - Far - month, especially off - season contracts, will continue to be under pressure. The cease - fire negotiation is accelerating, and the spot price has been weak since August, limiting the upside space of next year's off - season contracts [2]. - For contracts within this year, airlines' willingness to raise prices is expected to increase. With the Christmas cargo volume expected to rise, the 12 - month contract may be relatively firm but will likely fluctuate widely under the influence of multiple factors [3]. 3) Summary by Related Content Impact of the Cease - fire on Shipping Contracts - On October 8, the cease - fire agreement between Hamas and Israel boosted the expectation of resuming shipping, leading to a decline in far - month contracts on the European line, with the 2026 contracts falling by over 10% [1]. Reasons for the Decline in Far - Month Contracts - After ships were attacked in the Red Sea and detoured around the Cape of Good Hope, the European line's shipping capacity increased by about 25% compared to November 2023, while the demand from January to August this year only increased by 19%. The resumption of shipping will cause a significant oversupply [1]. - The 12000 + TEU fleet suitable for the European and American lines is expected to grow by 8% by 2026, and the demand is difficult to match this supply growth under the background of increasing global trade barriers [1]. Pricing of the Resumption of Shipping in the Market - Referring to the 2023 Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS), the average value of the European route was 887.7 points before the detour, with a low of 597.17 points in October and a high of 1159.44 points in December [2]. Outlook for Far - Month Contracts - Far - month, especially off - season contracts, will continue to be under pressure. The cease - fire negotiation is accelerating, and the spot price has been weak since August, so next year's off - season contracts may use this year's low as a reference, with limited upside space [2]. Outlook for Contracts within this Year - Airlines' willingness to raise prices is expected to increase. Some airlines have announced price increases from mid - October, and more 11 - month price increase plans are expected. With the Christmas cargo volume rising, if airlines implement empty - flight measures, it may boost the market [3]. - The 12 - month contract may be relatively firm due to the low probability of resuming shipping within this year and the peak - season expectation. However, under the influence of the resumption expectation and over - capacity, the average long - term contract price this year is expected to be lower than last year, and the contract is expected to fluctuate widely [3].