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家电行业2025W11周报:各地积极发布育儿补贴细则,政策超出预期-2025-03-17
Guotai Junan Securities· 2025-03-17 11:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the home appliance industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - Local governments are actively releasing childcare subsidy details, exceeding expectations, which is expected to benefit maternal and infant appliances as well as kitchen small appliances in the short term. In the long term, improvements in population size and structure will support consumption and real estate demand [3][9]. - The report highlights that the increase in birth rates will directly stimulate demand for maternal and infant appliances (e.g., milk warmers, complementary food machines, children's washing machines) and kitchen small appliances (e.g., multi-person cooking appliances, maternal and infant sterilizers) [10]. - The real estate market is showing signs of recovery, with marginal data improving, which is expected to stabilize the kitchen and white goods sectors that are closely related to the real estate cycle [25]. Summary by Sections Childcare Subsidies - Various regions are implementing childcare subsidy policies, with Hohhot offering the highest subsidies in the country, including a one-time payment of 10,000 yuan for the first child, 50,000 yuan for the second child, and 100,000 yuan for the third child, paid annually until the child reaches 10 years old [9][10]. Sales Data - The report notes a decline in cumulative sales growth for most home appliance categories, with online sales of air conditioners, dryers, and color TVs showing some recovery. However, sales growth for range hoods and robotic vacuums has narrowed significantly [12][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on the positive outlook for the industry: 1. For the kitchen and white goods sectors: Midea Group (PE: 12.9X), Boss Electric (12.6X), Hisense Visual (11.6X), and Vatti (11.4X) [25]. 2. For maternal and infant appliances and kitchen small appliances: Bear Electric (19.6X), Beiding (38.2X), Derma (24.5X), and Feike Electric (26.8X) [25]. 3. For AI and smart home segments: Stone Technology (20.8X), TCL Electronics (10.3X), Kangguan Technology (14.2X), Ninebot (25.3X), and Yingshi Network (43.1X) [25].