Core Insights - The phenomenon of private universities facing increasing difficulties in enrollment has emerged after this year's college entrance examination, with many institutions failing to fill their quotas [1][21] - The enrollment cut-off scores for these universities have been significantly lowered, with reductions of 30 to 40 points compared to initial thresholds [3][21] - Despite current challenges, private universities have historically been highly profitable, with some institutions reporting net profits exceeding 1 billion yuan and gross profit margins above 50% [5][14] Enrollment Challenges - In Guangdong, 14 out of 23 private universities did not meet their enrollment targets, with institutions like Zhanjiang University of Science and Technology having a shortfall of over 2,900 students after multiple rounds of recruitment [1] - In Guangxi, universities were allowed to recruit students without adhering to minimum cultural admission scores, theoretically permitting students with zero scores to apply [2] - The trend of declining enrollment is widespread, with reports of institutions in Shanghai and other regions experiencing zero applicants in initial rounds [21] Historical Profitability - Over the past decade, private universities have been likened to "money-printing machines," with significant profit margins and revenue growth [5][9] - For instance, China Education Group Holdings reported a net profit of 1.472 billion yuan in 2021, marking a 107.2% year-on-year increase, and maintained a gross profit margin above 50% for six consecutive years [5][14] - The business model of private universities has been characterized by stable student enrollment and low operational costs, allowing for substantial profitability [12][14] Market Dynamics - The rapid increase in the number of students enrolling in private universities has been driven by a limited number of public university spots, with enrollment in private institutions rising from 6.16 million in 2016 to over 10.5 million by 2024 [11] - Many private universities have adopted cost-cutting measures, such as employing a high percentage of part-time faculty, which has further enhanced profit margins [14] - The capital influx into private education has led to aggressive expansion strategies, including acquisitions and campus developments, often prioritizing financial returns over educational investments [20] Current Financial Struggles - Recent reports indicate that some private universities are facing severe financial distress, with instances of salary freezes and significant debts, leading to operational challenges [20][21] - The declining value of a bachelor's degree in the job market has prompted parents to reconsider the financial investment in private education, leading to decreased enrollment and increased tuition fees as a desperate measure [23] - As tuition fees rise, the reluctance of parents to invest further in private education may exacerbate the enrollment crisis [23]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on the private education sector, particularly in light of recent policy changes regarding for-profit education institutions [4]. Core Insights - The approval for Hunan International Economics University to pursue for-profit registration is seen as a positive signal for the industry, potentially encouraging other private institutions to follow suit [2]. - The transition to for-profit status is expected to enhance the financial health of listed companies by facilitating profit distribution and alleviating debt burdens, despite initial costs associated with asset transfers and tax payments [3]. - The current low valuation of the sector presents an opportunity for investment in companies with quality higher education assets, especially as policy developments unfold [4]. Summary by Sections - **Event Overview**: On September 14, 2025, Hunan International Economics University received government approval to initiate the process for for-profit registration, which has positively impacted the private higher education sector in Hong Kong [1]. - **Impact of Approval**: The approval is expected to serve as a model for other private institutions in Hunan Province, with three institutions already approved for similar transitions in 2025, indicating a shift in policy execution [2]. - **Market Sentiment**: The approval is likely to boost market sentiment in the private education sector, leading to a potential revaluation of the sector in the long term [3]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report advises investors to monitor developments in the sector closely and consider investing in companies with strong educational assets as the market adjusts to these changes [4].