国庆中秋假期期间，民航业迎来暑运后的又一次客流高峰。 10月9日，《证券日报》记者从中国民航局了解到，2025年国庆中秋假期期间（10月1日至10月8日）， 全国民航累计运输旅客1913.8万人次，日均239.2万人次，比2024年国庆假期日均增长3.2%；日均客座 率87.9%，比2024年国庆假期日均增长3.5个百分点。其中，10月1日全国民航运输旅客247.5万人次，超 过国庆假期历史峰值。 从机票价格来看，来自航班管家DAST的数据显示，10月1日至10月8日，国内机票（经济舱）均价849 元（含燃油附加费），同比2024年微增0.3%，整体票价水平稳定。 中国东航则加密了上海浦东—喀什、上海浦东—伊宁、上海浦东—大同多条国内航线，并在上海虹桥— 广州等航线上，通过机型"小换大"等方式提升运力、加大投放。 "民航业'旺丁不旺财'的局面迎来拐点。"广东外语外贸大学南国商学院教授郭佳告诉《证券日报》记 者，今年"双节"假期迎来多重利好因素，一方面出行周期更长，另一方面各个航司都有的放矢地调整航 线供应，加之民航业"反内卷"的持续推进，这些因素共同促成了民航机票价格止跌回升逐步企稳。 上市航司多措并举保供应 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost air travel demand, with online travel booking platforms reporting a more than 30% increase in domestic flight search popularity [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The aviation sector is anticipated to benefit from a cyclical recovery in passenger volume and pricing, driven by high load factors and industry initiatives to reduce internal competition, leading to a potential rebound in ticket prices [1] - On the supply side, the introduction of new aircraft is slowing, while the utilization rate of existing aircraft is gradually recovering, resulting in a decline in capacity growth year-on-year [1] - On the demand side, the resilience of business travelers is expected to recover, private travel is performing well, and the silver economy will continue to develop, indicating sustained growth in air travel demand [1] Group 2: Pricing and Revenue Dynamics - With record high load factors and enhanced price regulation by the Civil Aviation Administration, there is a strong foundation for ticket price increases [1] - As the bull market progresses and economic expectations improve, business travel (due to improved corporate profitability) and tourism consumption (due to rising household income) are likely to enhance the fundamentals of airlines, leading to better profitability [1] - Airports are also expected to benefit from the recovery in air travel demand, with both aviation and non-aviation revenues showing significant improvement [1]

Group 1: Transportation Trends - The Ministry of Transport forecasts a total of 11.9 billion trips during this summer travel season, averaging 192 million trips per day, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1] - Road travel accounts for 8.7 billion trips, making up 73% of total inter-regional travel, while rail travel reaches approximately 940 million trips, marking a historic high [1] - Air travel is expected to transport 14.7 million passengers, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, while water transport is projected to exceed 66.94 million passengers, with a daily increase of 6.1% compared to last year [1] Group 2: Travel Preferences - In the top 10 cities with the highest inbound traffic, over 50% of travelers choose to travel by car, with cities like Foshan and Dongguan seeing over 85% of trips made by car [2] - High-speed rail is increasingly preferred for shorter distances, with 86% of rail users traveling less than 800 km, while air travel dominates for distances over 1200 km [7][8] Group 3: Airline Industry Response - Airlines are facing challenges as the growth rate of air travel during the summer season is lower than in previous months, leading to a decrease in average domestic economy class ticket prices by 6.4% year-on-year [5] - To counteract the impact of high-speed rail on passenger numbers, airlines are extending their flight distances, with Eastern Airlines reporting a 9.8% increase in international flights compared to the same period last year [10] - The recovery rate of international flights has reached 110% of pre-pandemic levels, although overall international passenger flights remain at 88.9% of 2019 levels due to various restrictions [10]

Core Insights - The summer travel season has reached a historical high in passenger volume, with July's domestic air travel expected to hit 71.2 million, a 3% increase year-on-year [1] - Despite the increase in passenger numbers, average ticket prices for domestic economy class have decreased, with some popular routes seeing price drops exceeding 20% [1][3] Passenger Volume and Price Trends - The Civil Aviation Administration of China projected a total of 150 million passengers during the summer travel season, with a daily average of approximately 2.44 million, reflecting a 6.6% increase from the previous year [2] - As of July 31, domestic passenger volume exceeded 60.34 million, a 3% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume surpassed 7.76 million, marking a 10% increase [2] - Beijing Daxing Airport reported a 7.12% year-on-year increase in passenger volume since the start of the summer travel season [2] Route-Specific Insights - Popular tourist destinations such as Xinjiang and Yunnan have seen significant increases in ticket bookings, with some areas experiencing over 10% growth [3] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class in July was 840 yuan, a 7.5% decrease compared to last year and a 5% decrease compared to 2019 [3] - Among the top 20 domestic routes, only the Hangzhou Xiaoshan to Shenzhen Baoan route saw a price increase, while the remaining routes experienced varying degrees of price declines [3] International Travel Recovery - International flight recovery remains below pre-pandemic levels, with July's international passenger flights only reaching 89.1% of 2019 levels [4] - Recovery rates vary significantly by region, with flights to Japan exceeding 100% recovery, while flights to Thailand are at only 54.6% [4][5] - The structure of international routes has shifted, with a growing proportion of flights to Central Asia, Africa, and Middle Eastern countries, reflecting changes in trade relations and travel preferences [5] Emerging Travel Trends - The top ten outbound destinations for July included Seoul, Hong Kong, and Osaka, with a notable preference for visa-free and emerging destinations [5] - As of mid-July, outbound ticket bookings exceeded 7.19 million, an 8% increase from the previous year [5]

Core Insights - The average domestic economy class ticket price in July reached 840 yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year and down 5.0% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [1][5] - The overall passenger transport volume in July is expected to reach 71.2 million, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1][3] Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - The average ticket price for domestic economy class remains lower than the same period last year, with several popular routes experiencing double-digit declines [2] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China predicted a total passenger transport volume of 150 million during the summer travel season, with a daily average of approximately 2.44 million, reflecting a 6.6% increase from the previous year [3] - Major airports, such as Beijing Daxing Airport, reported record-high passenger volumes and flight numbers during the summer travel season, with a year-on-year increase of 7.12% [3] Group 2: Route and Capacity Insights - Airlines have increased capacity compared to the previous year, particularly in tourist-heavy provinces like Qinghai (up 16%) and Xinjiang (up 12%) [3][5] - Popular tourist destinations like Xinjiang and Yunnan have seen significant increases in ticket bookings, with some areas reporting over 10% growth [5] Group 3: International Market Recovery - International passenger flights have not fully recovered, with July's flight volume reaching only 89.1% of the levels seen in 2019 [8][11] - There is a significant disparity in recovery rates among different regions, with flights to Japan exceeding 100% recovery, while flights to Thailand are only at 54.6% [8][11] - The structure of international routes has shifted, with a growing proportion of flights to Central Asia, Africa, and Middle Eastern countries, reflecting strengthened economic ties with "Belt and Road" nations [11]

Core Insights - The aviation industry in China experienced a significant increase in passenger volume and flight operations during the "May Day" holiday, with a total of 11.15 million passengers transported, marking a 55.4% increase compared to 2019 and an 11.8% increase compared to 2024 [1] - The average price of domestic economy class tickets during the holiday was approximately 779 yuan, reflecting a 0.4% increase from 2019 and a 5.3% increase from 2024, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics despite high demand [1] Domestic Aviation Performance - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) reported that the average passenger load factor reached 85% during the holiday, up 1.5 percentage points from 2019 and 4.4 percentage points from 2024 [4] - Daily flight operations averaged 18,148 flights, recovering to 112.8% of the 2019 levels, with domestic passenger flights reaching 69,000 [4] - Significant growth was observed in passenger traffic at regional airports, with some locations experiencing over 100% year-on-year increases in throughput [4] Travel Trends and Consumer Behavior - The trend of "combining holidays" led to a surge in interest for long-distance travel to less popular destinations, with booking volumes for certain areas like Xinjiang and Tibet increasing by over 100% compared to last year [5] - Younger travelers (ages 19-22) showed a 60% increase in purchasing their first flight tickets, while older travelers (ages 60-80) also saw a 40% increase in similar purchases [5] International Travel Dynamics - International travel also saw a notable uptick, with outbound flight bookings increasing by over 30% and inbound bookings surging by 130% [7] - Popular international destinations included Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, with significant growth in bookings from Australia and Canada [6][7] - Despite the growth in international travel, many routes have not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with some routes still below 70% of 2019 capacity [7][10] Future Outlook - The CAAC plans to continue promoting international flight increases, focusing on both traditional and emerging markets to enhance service and connectivity [10]