Core Insights - The civil aviation industry in China experienced a peak in passenger flow during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday from October 1 to October 8, 2025, with a total of 19.138 million passengers transported, averaging 2.392 million passengers per day, which is a 3.2% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - The average ticket price for domestic flights during this period was 849 yuan, showing a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, indicating a stabilization in overall ticket prices [1] - The industry is witnessing a turning point from a situation of high passenger numbers but low profitability, with various airlines adjusting their flight schedules and increasing capacity to meet demand [1][3] Passenger Traffic and Flight Operations - During the holiday, 39 domestic airlines operated, with the three major airlines accounting for 42.7% of the market share, and 30 airlines reported a year-on-year increase in daily flights [2] - China Eastern Airlines executed over 15,400 domestic and international flights, transporting more than 2.278 million passengers, achieving a daily flight volume of over 3,000, which is a 3.9% increase year-on-year [2] - China Southern Airlines planned to add over 2,700 flights during the holiday period, with a total of 48,000 flights scheduled [2] International Travel Trends - The international flight market also saw growth, with an average of over 2,000 international passenger flights executed daily, an 11.1% increase compared to 2024 [4] - There was a significant increase in outbound ticket bookings, with a growth of over 50% for flights from October 1 to October 8, and popular destinations saw a more than 30% increase in bookings [5] - China Eastern Airlines executed a total of 2,171 international flights, transporting 352,000 passengers during the holiday [5][6] Capacity Adjustments and Market Outlook - Airlines are proactively adjusting their capacity and routes to meet the increased demand during the holiday, with China Southern Airlines opening new routes and increasing flight frequencies on popular routes [5][6] - The industry is expected to continue focusing on international business, with airlines likely to further enhance their international route offerings in response to rising demand for outbound and inbound travel [6]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming National Day holiday is expected to boost air travel demand, with online travel booking platforms reporting a more than 30% increase in domestic flight search popularity [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The aviation sector is anticipated to benefit from a cyclical recovery in passenger volume and pricing, driven by high load factors and industry initiatives to reduce internal competition, leading to a potential rebound in ticket prices [1] - On the supply side, the introduction of new aircraft is slowing, while the utilization rate of existing aircraft is gradually recovering, resulting in a decline in capacity growth year-on-year [1] - On the demand side, the resilience of business travelers is expected to recover, private travel is performing well, and the silver economy will continue to develop, indicating sustained growth in air travel demand [1] Group 2: Pricing and Revenue Dynamics - With record high load factors and enhanced price regulation by the Civil Aviation Administration, there is a strong foundation for ticket price increases [1] - As the bull market progresses and economic expectations improve, business travel (due to improved corporate profitability) and tourism consumption (due to rising household income) are likely to enhance the fundamentals of airlines, leading to better profitability [1] - Airports are also expected to benefit from the recovery in air travel demand, with both aviation and non-aviation revenues showing significant improvement [1]

Group 1: Transportation Trends - The Ministry of Transport forecasts a total of 11.9 billion trips during this summer travel season, averaging 192 million trips per day, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1] - Road travel accounts for 8.7 billion trips, making up 73% of total inter-regional travel, while rail travel reaches approximately 940 million trips, marking a historic high [1] - Air travel is expected to transport 14.7 million passengers, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, while water transport is projected to exceed 66.94 million passengers, with a daily increase of 6.1% compared to last year [1] Group 2: Travel Preferences - In the top 10 cities with the highest inbound traffic, over 50% of travelers choose to travel by car, with cities like Foshan and Dongguan seeing over 85% of trips made by car [2] - High-speed rail is increasingly preferred for shorter distances, with 86% of rail users traveling less than 800 km, while air travel dominates for distances over 1200 km [7][8] Group 3: Airline Industry Response - Airlines are facing challenges as the growth rate of air travel during the summer season is lower than in previous months, leading to a decrease in average domestic economy class ticket prices by 6.4% year-on-year [5] - To counteract the impact of high-speed rail on passenger numbers, airlines are extending their flight distances, with Eastern Airlines reporting a 9.8% increase in international flights compared to the same period last year [10] - The recovery rate of international flights has reached 110% of pre-pandemic levels, although overall international passenger flights remain at 88.9% of 2019 levels due to various restrictions [10]

Core Insights - The summer travel season has reached a historical high in passenger volume, with July's domestic air travel expected to hit 71.2 million, a 3% increase year-on-year [1] - Despite the increase in passenger numbers, average ticket prices for domestic economy class have decreased, with some popular routes seeing price drops exceeding 20% [1][3] Passenger Volume and Price Trends - The Civil Aviation Administration of China projected a total of 150 million passengers during the summer travel season, with a daily average of approximately 2.44 million, reflecting a 6.6% increase from the previous year [2] - As of July 31, domestic passenger volume exceeded 60.34 million, a 3% year-on-year increase, while international passenger volume surpassed 7.76 million, marking a 10% increase [2] - Beijing Daxing Airport reported a 7.12% year-on-year increase in passenger volume since the start of the summer travel season [2] Route-Specific Insights - Popular tourist destinations such as Xinjiang and Yunnan have seen significant increases in ticket bookings, with some areas experiencing over 10% growth [3] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class in July was 840 yuan, a 7.5% decrease compared to last year and a 5% decrease compared to 2019 [3] - Among the top 20 domestic routes, only the Hangzhou Xiaoshan to Shenzhen Baoan route saw a price increase, while the remaining routes experienced varying degrees of price declines [3] International Travel Recovery - International flight recovery remains below pre-pandemic levels, with July's international passenger flights only reaching 89.1% of 2019 levels [4] - Recovery rates vary significantly by region, with flights to Japan exceeding 100% recovery, while flights to Thailand are at only 54.6% [4][5] - The structure of international routes has shifted, with a growing proportion of flights to Central Asia, Africa, and Middle Eastern countries, reflecting changes in trade relations and travel preferences [5] Emerging Travel Trends - The top ten outbound destinations for July included Seoul, Hong Kong, and Osaka, with a notable preference for visa-free and emerging destinations [5] - As of mid-July, outbound ticket bookings exceeded 7.19 million, an 8% increase from the previous year [5]

Core Insights - The average domestic economy class ticket price in July reached 840 yuan, a decrease of 7.5% year-on-year and down 5.0% compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [1][5] - The overall passenger transport volume in July is expected to reach 71.2 million, marking a historical high and a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1][3] Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - The average ticket price for domestic economy class remains lower than the same period last year, with several popular routes experiencing double-digit declines [2] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China predicted a total passenger transport volume of 150 million during the summer travel season, with a daily average of approximately 2.44 million, reflecting a 6.6% increase from the previous year [3] - Major airports, such as Beijing Daxing Airport, reported record-high passenger volumes and flight numbers during the summer travel season, with a year-on-year increase of 7.12% [3] Group 2: Route and Capacity Insights - Airlines have increased capacity compared to the previous year, particularly in tourist-heavy provinces like Qinghai (up 16%) and Xinjiang (up 12%) [3][5] - Popular tourist destinations like Xinjiang and Yunnan have seen significant increases in ticket bookings, with some areas reporting over 10% growth [5] Group 3: International Market Recovery - International passenger flights have not fully recovered, with July's flight volume reaching only 89.1% of the levels seen in 2019 [8][11] - There is a significant disparity in recovery rates among different regions, with flights to Japan exceeding 100% recovery, while flights to Thailand are only at 54.6% [8][11] - The structure of international routes has shifted, with a growing proportion of flights to Central Asia, Africa, and Middle Eastern countries, reflecting strengthened economic ties with "Belt and Road" nations [11]

Core Insights - The aviation industry in China experienced a significant increase in passenger volume and flight operations during the "May Day" holiday, with a total of 11.15 million passengers transported, marking a 55.4% increase compared to 2019 and an 11.8% increase compared to 2024 [1] - The average price of domestic economy class tickets during the holiday was approximately 779 yuan, reflecting a 0.4% increase from 2019 and a 5.3% increase from 2024, indicating a shift in pricing dynamics despite high demand [1] Domestic Aviation Performance - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) reported that the average passenger load factor reached 85% during the holiday, up 1.5 percentage points from 2019 and 4.4 percentage points from 2024 [4] - Daily flight operations averaged 18,148 flights, recovering to 112.8% of the 2019 levels, with domestic passenger flights reaching 69,000 [4] - Significant growth was observed in passenger traffic at regional airports, with some locations experiencing over 100% year-on-year increases in throughput [4] Travel Trends and Consumer Behavior - The trend of "combining holidays" led to a surge in interest for long-distance travel to less popular destinations, with booking volumes for certain areas like Xinjiang and Tibet increasing by over 100% compared to last year [5] - Younger travelers (ages 19-22) showed a 60% increase in purchasing their first flight tickets, while older travelers (ages 60-80) also saw a 40% increase in similar purchases [5] International Travel Dynamics - International travel also saw a notable uptick, with outbound flight bookings increasing by over 30% and inbound bookings surging by 130% [7] - Popular international destinations included Japan, South Korea, and Vietnam, with significant growth in bookings from Australia and Canada [6][7] - Despite the growth in international travel, many routes have not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels, with some routes still below 70% of 2019 capacity [7][10] Future Outlook - The CAAC plans to continue promoting international flight increases, focusing on both traditional and emerging markets to enhance service and connectivity [10]