Market Performance - On August 20, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.23%[3] - The total trading volume in both markets exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan, continuing to decrease compared to previous periods[1] Sector Analysis - Strong sectors included chemical fiber, liquor, semiconductors, and automotive, while sectors like power equipment and pharmaceuticals experienced adjustments[1] - Investors are advised to reduce exposure to overperforming tech and pharmaceutical stocks while increasing positions in consumer goods[2] Capital Flow - On August 20, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange were 24.937 billion yuan, and 21.031 billion yuan into the Shenzhen Stock Exchange[4] Economic Indicators - The August Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% for 5-year loans and 3% for 1-year loans, indicating stable borrowing costs[5] Fund Dynamics - The total scale of ETFs reached 4.8 trillion yuan as of August 18, reflecting a significant increase in asset allocation through ETFs[11] - Over 130 public funds reported returns exceeding 100% in the past year, with some funds achieving returns over 200%[12][13]

Group 1 - The summer box office in China has surpassed 9.5 billion yuan, indicating strong resilience in the domestic film consumption market [1] - The animated film "Wang Wang Mountain Little Monster" has achieved over 900 million yuan in cumulative box office, becoming the highest-grossing 2D animated film in Chinese history [1] Group 2 - In July, China's civil aviation transportation scale reached a historical high, with a total turnover of 148 billion ton-kilometers, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year growth [2] - Domestic passenger transport reached 64.73 million, a 2.7% increase, while international passenger transport saw a significant rise of 15.7% to 7.09 million [2] Group 3 - Rumors about Dong Yuhui's annual income exceeding 2 to 3 billion yuan after leaving the company have sparked interest in the live-streaming e-commerce sector [3] - The response from the company "Hui Tongxing" indicates that the income claims are not accurate, highlighting the volatility of income in the live-streaming industry [3] Group 4 - Costa Rican coffee exports are under pressure due to a 15% tariff imposed by the U.S., which has historically been its largest export market [4] - The local coffee industry is looking to expand into other overseas markets to mitigate the risks associated with reliance on a single market [4]

Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - In the first half of 2025, China's semiconductor industry (including Taiwan) saw a total investment of 455 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 9.8%, and a significant drop of 41.6% compared to the previous year, indicating a clear trend of contraction [3] - The demand for semiconductor equipment, particularly front-end equipment, is expected to weaken as the capacity expansion in mature processes is likely to end before breakthroughs in high-end lithography machines [3] - Advanced packaging equipment is anticipated to maintain high growth due to demand from technologies such as HBM and stacking, suggesting a positive long-term outlook for high-end packaging equipment in the semiconductor sector [3] Group 2: Lithium Industry - On August 11, 2025, all contracts for lithium carbonate futures surged, leading to a collective rally in lithium mining stocks, with Ganfeng Lithium's H shares soaring over 20% [7] - The suspension of mining operations in Jiangxi due to expired mining licenses may impact monthly lithium carbonate production by 7,000 to 8,000 tons, creating a significant supply gap and potential short-term price rebound for lithium [7] - The suspension is expected to positively affect the supply chain, although cost pressures in the midstream battery manufacturing sector may pose challenges [7] Group 3: Automotive Industry - BYD's Fangchengbao brand has launched its first mass-produced vehicle, the Fangchengbao Ti 7, which is positioned in the mid-to-high-end SUV market, indicating BYD's capability to establish a foothold in the high-end, personalized market [8] - The successful launch of high-end models like the Ti 7 is expected to boost confidence among industry participants and investors, while also driving growth and technological upgrades in the supply chain [8] Group 4: Energy Storage Industry - Shuangdeng Co., a leading company in the energy storage sector, is set to list on the Hong Kong main board, with plans to use the raised funds for establishing lithium-ion battery production facilities in Southeast Asia and a research center in Taizhou [8] - The energy storage industry is currently experiencing a high degree of prosperity and rapid technological iteration, transitioning from domestic growth to global expansion [8] Group 5: Aviation Industry - During the summer travel period from July 1 to August 4, 2025, the civil aviation sector executed over 593,000 passenger flights, a 3.4% increase year-on-year, with a passenger volume of 81.03 million, also reflecting a 3.4% growth [11] - The average ticket price for domestic economy class flights decreased by 7.4% year-on-year, indicating potential pricing pressures in the aviation market [11] Group 6: Education Technology - Duolingo reported a net revenue of $252.3 million in Q2 2025, a 41% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of $448,000 and an adjusted EBITDA of $7.87 million, reflecting growth in user engagement [12] - The company has optimized its product experience through AI technology, with new offerings like chess courses expected to drive future growth [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article focuses on the concept of "anti-involution" across various industries, emphasizing that the framework is still being refined and may require further input from industry associations and relevant departments [2][3]. Group 1: Historical Context of Anti-Involution - The first positioning of anti-involution is to serve high-quality development and enhance industrial competitiveness, integrating the strategy of expanding domestic demand with supply-side structural reforms [5][11]. - The second positioning is to support the construction of a unified national market, facilitating domestic circulation, with various measures already implemented to promote this goal [6][13]. Group 2: Future Outlook on Anti-Involution - The article outlines three reasons why the current anti-involution efforts are not urgent: differing goal orientations compared to previous supply-side reforms, varying employment constraints, and differing micro-profit pressures [7][17][18]. - Multiple sectors may be involved in anti-involution efforts, including new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, lithium batteries, electronics, chemicals, and civil aviation [22]. - The implementation of anti-involution is expected to occur in three phases: 1. Phase one focuses on regulating corporate and government behavior to maintain fair market competition [26][28]. 2. Phase two involves market-based methods such as mergers and acquisitions to eliminate ineffective production capacity [30]. 3. Phase three may introduce more explicit "hard targets" to resolve supply-demand conflicts if previous phases do not yield results [32][33]. Group 3: Mechanisms for Implementing Anti-Involution - The article discusses the need for corporate behavior regulation, highlighting relevant laws and regulations aimed at promoting product quality and fair competition [35][36]. - Government behavior must also be regulated, with various policies in place to ensure fair competition and prevent local protectionism [38][39]. - Supply-side measures will focus on enhancing standards to force the exit of outdated production capacity, with specific deadlines set for compliance in various industries [40].

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观专题】 不只是当下，不急于当下——反内卷的定性 定量理解 ❖ 前言：本篇报告主要聚焦反内卷。 首先需要强调的是，当前各行业"反内卷"框架仍在细化中，或需行业协会与 相关部门进一步出台文件、征求意见，这一阶段可能需要一定时间。即，反内 卷政策是动态的、发展的，并不只是当下，也并不急于当下。其次，站在服务 于统一大市场、服务于高质量发展的目标定位下，"反内卷"既有"反"的方 向，包括企业层面的不正当手段的规模竞争、地方政府层面的违规招商与保护 主义，更有"支持"的方向，包括新产品、新业态、新技术、新增值服务、走 出去等。我们对过往几年已出台的若干相关政策，予以回顾。再次，综合整治 "内卷式"竞争，"根本上要着眼于构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制"，强调 "久久为功"，我们预计可能会经历三个阶段。前两阶段围绕着行为规范与市 场化产能治理展开，若个别行业前两阶段未见成效，且形势进一步恶化，才可 能进入第三阶段——采取带有行政性、指标性的干预。方向上是两条主线（盘 活存量与做优增量）。第一条针对偏传统的上游高能耗、及下游重点能效行业， 通过国家能耗、能效标准的提升加快发展模式的转变 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the concept of "anti-involution" in the context of China's economic landscape, particularly focusing on the supply-side challenges that are more complex compared to the previous cycle from 2015 to 2018 [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Policy Signals**: There is a notable increase in policy signals regarding "anti-involution," with comparisons made to the supply-side reform 1.0 period. The current challenges differ significantly from those faced between 2015 and 2018 due to changes in industry competition and macroeconomic conditions [2][3]. 2. **Structural Reforms Needed**: To achieve lasting results in anti-involution, there is a consensus on the necessity for deeper structural reforms, including adjustments to local incentive mechanisms and tax reforms aimed at rebalancing towards consumption [3][10]. 3. **Recent Government Actions**: - On July 16, the State Council emphasized a combination of short-term and long-term measures to regulate competition in the new energy vehicle sector. - On July 18, the State Administration for Market Regulation held discussions with major food delivery platforms. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced supply-side reforms in ten key industries, including non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals [7]. 4. **Market Signals Ignored**: The report highlights that part of the competition's involution is due to ignored market signals, leading to continued capacity expansion despite falling prices [10]. 5. **Historical Context**: The report draws parallels between the current economic situation and past experiences, noting that anti-involution will not be a quick fix. The GDP deflator index has been negative for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, indicating entrenched deflationary pressures [11]. 6. **Capacity Utilization and Industry Dynamics**: The report notes that the current overcapacity is largely in emerging industries, with 50-90% of capacity owned by the private sector, making administrative capacity reduction more challenging compared to the previous cycle [11][19]. 7. **Potential for Mergers and Acquisitions**: There is an expectation for large enterprises in the polysilicon industry to form acquisition funds to consolidate smaller firms, although execution remains uncertain due to declining demand and high inventory levels [12]. 8. **Gradual Progress Expected**: The report suggests that while some upstream industries may see moderate consolidation, the urgency for adjustment is lower compared to previous reforms [17][20]. 9. **Reform Timing and Delays**: The implementation of formal plans for capacity reduction may experience delays of 3-8 months, reflecting the complexities of the current economic environment compared to the 2015-2018 period [20]. Other Important Insights - **Demand Recovery Limitations**: The report indicates that the cyclical growth may fluctuate at lower levels due to debt and demographic challenges, with limited upside for demand recovery without decisive stimulus measures [18]. - **Need for Comprehensive Policy Mix**: The optimal policy combination would involve more aggressive demand rebalancing measures alongside faster structural reforms to achieve sustainable re-inflation [24]. - **Caution Against Overly Aggressive Measures**: The report warns that overly aggressive capacity reduction without sufficient demand support could lead to deeper deflation after a brief improvement in prices [24]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the industry and the anticipated direction of policy and economic reforms in China.

Group 1 - The western region of China achieved a record high in import and export scale, with a total value of 2.12 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [4] - The civil aviation industry in China reached new heights in the first half of the year, completing a total transportation turnover of 783.5 billion ton-kilometers, with passenger transport volume at 370 million and cargo mail transport volume at 4.784 million tons, showing year-on-year growth of 11.4%, 6%, and 14.6% respectively [5] - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in special long-term bonds has been allocated to support the old-for-new consumption policy, with plans for a fourth batch of the same amount to be issued in October [6] Group 2 - China's largest coalbed methane production capacity has surpassed 2.5 billion cubic meters annually, with the Daqi gas field having newly drilled 37 wells this year and a proven geological reserve of 300 billion cubic meters [8]

Core Insights - The meeting held by the Civil Aviation Administration of North China focused on implementing the national civil aviation mid-year work meeting spirit, summarizing the first half of the year, analyzing the current situation, and planning key tasks for the second half of the year [1] Group 1: Performance Overview - In the first half of the year, North China region's airports achieved a passenger throughput of 100 million people and a cargo and mail throughput of 1.102 million tons, representing year-on-year growth of 3.7% and 6.5% respectively [2] - The on-time flight rate for airlines was 93.65%, and the bridge rate for major airports was 87.83%, with improvements of 4.7 and 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 2: Strategic Focus - The year is significant as it marks the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the planning phase for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need to grasp three key aspects: political awareness, discipline, and safety supervision [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing organizational construction through strong work ethics and accountability, ensuring safety regulations are strictly followed, and improving the quality of civil aviation services in North China [3] Group 3: Future Directions - For the second half of the year, all units and departments are required to maintain a stable yet progressive work approach, focusing on high-quality development and high-level safety [3] - Key tasks include executing major transportation guarantees, enhancing safety supervision, promoting industry development, managing internal operations effectively, and strengthening party discipline [3]

《中国民航报》、中国民航网 记者何丹 通讯员余广龙 报道：近期，为认真贯彻落实民航关于严格规范 涉企行政检查的决策部署，民航西藏监管局深入学习《国务院办公厅关于严格规范涉企行政检查的意 见》以及司法部办公厅有关问题解答精神，对辖区涉企行政检查工作做出明确安排。 西藏监管局组织全体监察员参加了新增和完善的三类行政检查文书的规范使用的有关培训，学习消化有 关内容，并要求全面掌握三类行政检查文书的适用条件、填写规范和要点，尤其是检查频次、行政检查 标准和法律依据等必须与民航局公布的标准保持一致。 7月23至25日，西藏监管局组织各专业监察员赴山南隆子机场和空管站开展年度行政检查。此次检查由 监管局行政办公室牵头统一制作《行政检查通知书》，带头落实好"五个严禁""八个不得"以及民航上级 关于行政检查的各项最新要求。同时，本次检查统一实施，严格落实中央八项规定精神其实施细则精 神,认真落实为基层减负各项措施，严格控制对同一企业的行政检查频次，切实减轻行政相对人的迎检 压力；在做好服务全体执法监察员的前提下，也对全体监察员的具体落实情况进行有效的监督，持续稳 步推进西藏辖区精准检查，防止重复检查、多头检查。 下一步，监管 ...

Core Insights - The development of civil aviation in Tibet has significantly progressed from having only one airport and a few flights to a comprehensive network of 1 main airport and 7 branch airports, with 12 airlines operating 193 routes [3] Group 1: Historical Development - In 1992, the civil aviation sector in Tibet was in its infancy, with only one terminal and limited flights, reflecting a lack of infrastructure and resources [1] - The construction of Linzhi Airport began in 2003, marking a pivotal moment in the expansion of Tibet's aviation capabilities [2] Group 2: Current Status - As of the first half of 2025, Tibet's civil aviation has achieved 34,000 flight operations, with a passenger throughput of 3.7 million and cargo mail throughput of 26,000 tons [3] - The workforce of the Civil Aviation Administration of Tibet has reached 3,354 employees, with 62.7% being young individuals aged 35 and below, indicating a strong future workforce [3] Group 3: Personal Contributions - The individual, Daqi Ren, has played a crucial role in the development of civil aviation in Tibet, transitioning from various positions within the industry and contributing to its growth [2][3] - Daqi Ren's journey reflects the broader narrative of Tibet's aviation development, showcasing personal and professional growth alongside industry advancements [2]