水舞间演出

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新濠国际发展(00200.HK):水舞间有望驱动强劲业务趋势延续至3Q25
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-01 19:30
Core Viewpoint - Melco Resorts & Entertainment reported better-than-expected Q2 2025 results, with net revenue of $1.328 billion, a 15% year-over-year increase and an 8% quarter-over-quarter increase, recovering to 91% of Q2 2019 levels [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Adjusted property EBITDA was $378 million, up 25% year-over-year and 11% quarter-over-quarter, recovering to 84% of Q2 2019 levels, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimate of $347 million [1] - The company maintained stable operating cost control, leading to improved profit margins [1] Group 2: Management Insights - Management indicated that the strong trend observed in June 2025 continued into July 2025, with expectations for this trend to persist into Q3 2025, driven by record visitor numbers at Macau properties and strong performance in the premium mass segment [1] - The company plans to close the Junket Room and three Mocha Clubs by the end of 2025, with an impairment loss of approximately $56 million recognized in Q2 2025 [1] - Management is optimistic about the benefits from the closure of competitor satellite casinos and the company's own satellite properties [1] - Competitors are increasing reinvestment rates, but the company remains focused on enhancing its products to retain customers [1] - Enhanced information technology for smart gaming tables is expected to optimize customer rebate expenditures [1] - The "The House of Dancing Water" show is helping to attract visitors back to City of Dreams, positively impacting non-gaming revenue [1] - Despite the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on City of Dreams Cyprus, summer hotel bookings have significantly increased [1] - City of Dreams Sri Lanka is set to open on August 1, 2025, primarily targeting Indian customers, with expectations for a longer ramp-up period due to its status as the first resort of its kind in South Asia [1] - City of Dreams Manila's performance remained stable in July 2025 [1] - The company repurchased approximately $120 million worth of shares at about $5 per ADS in April and May 2025 [1] Group 3: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the current stock price corresponding to 7 times the 2025 estimated EV/adjusted EBITDA [2] - A neutral rating is maintained with a target price of $8.50, reflecting an 8 times 2025 estimated EV/adjusted EBITDA, indicating a 1% downside from the current stock price [2] - For Melco International Development, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, with an upgraded target price of 14% to HKD 5.80, reflecting a 20% discount to net asset value and a 7% upside from the current stock price [2]
中金:升新濠国际发展(00200)目标价至5.80港元 维持“跑赢行业”评级
智通财经网· 2025-08-01 09:20
智通财经APP获悉,中金发布研报称,维持新濠国际发展(00200)2025年和2026年经调整EBITDA基本不 变,维持跑赢行业评级,上调目标价14%至5.80港元,基于当前折价水平,对应20%的净资产折价率, 较当前股价有7%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下: 2Q25业绩好于预期 新濠博亚娱乐于7月31日公布2Q25业绩:净收入13.28亿美元,同比上升15%,环比上升8%,恢复至 2Q19的91%;经调整物业EBITDA为3.78亿美元,同比上升25%,环比上升11%,恢复至2Q19的84%,好 于机构一致预期的3.47亿美元。该行认为新濠博亚娱乐的表现主要是由于:1)稳定的经营成本控制,带 来更好的利润率表现;2)水舞间演出带动澳门新濠天地的访客量。 管理层业绩会要点如下 管理层指出,2025年6月的强劲趋势延续至2025年7月,预计该趋势将持续至3Q25,受益于公司旗下澳 门物业的访客量实现历史新高,高端中场持续推动业绩表现。公司将于2025年底关闭骏龙娱乐场及3间 摩卡角子机俱乐部,并于2Q25计提约5,600万美元的减值损失。管理层看好行业卫星娱乐场以及摩卡角 子机俱乐部的停业(包含竞争对手旗下 ...