Core Viewpoint - The market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a correction, with significant declines in certain metals like tin and silver, while others like copper and zinc show relative resilience due to their fundamental support [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Most non-ferrous metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are in a downward trend, with notable declines in tin and silver, while copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and lead also experienced varying degrees of decrease [1]. - The market is shifting from a previous phase driven by "emotions and capital" to one that reflects "macro expectations and industrial realities," leading to significant differentiation in price movements among different metals [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Movements - The sharp adjustments in tin and silver prices are attributed to multiple factors, including tightening macro liquidity expectations, profit-taking after previous price surges, and changes in industrial sentiment [3]. - Copper and zinc have shown limited declines due to fundamental support, with copper prices buoyed by supply constraints and increasing demand from sectors like AI infrastructure and power grid investments [4]. Group 3: Inventory and Future Expectations - A core contradiction in the market is the high current inventory levels versus strong future expectations, with copper, aluminum, and nickel showing significantly higher absolute inventory levels compared to previous years, exerting downward pressure on prices [5]. - In contrast, lead and zinc have lower inventory pressures, which partially explains zinc's relative price stability in both futures and spot markets [5]. Group 4: Seasonal Market Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches, market trading logic is shifting towards risk aversion, with investors preferring to secure profits and avoid uncertainties during the holiday, which suppresses risk appetite [6]. - Analysts suggest that the real turning point for the market may occur after the holiday, contingent on downstream recovery progress, the effectiveness of domestic growth policies, and the outcomes of the March Federal Reserve meeting [7]. Group 5: Precious Metals Outlook - The precious metals sector, particularly silver, has seen more significant adjustments compared to base metals, reflecting heightened sensitivity to expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [8]. - The market for precious metals may require confirmation of liquidity easing signals post-March Federal Reserve meeting to regain a stable upward trend [8].