Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the nickel variety, the recent market sentiment has cooled down, and the oversupply pattern of refined nickel remains. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is between 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [2][3]. - For the stainless - steel variety, the main contract of stainless steel has a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton. It is expected to break through the 120 - day moving average resistance level. The estimated upper limit of the recent range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is between 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading is also recommended, along with monitoring the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,500 yuan/ton and closed at 121,720 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.15% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 153,323 lots, and the open interest was 92,635 lots [1]. - The main contract 2509 showed a narrow - range oscillation throughout the day, with a small positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest increased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, indicating a weakening upward momentum in the short term. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 117,000 yuan/ton on June 23, and it is estimated that 117,000 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [2]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 600 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands in the market were all raised. The refined nickel futures price has been rising continuously following commodities due to the influence of capital sentiment, but the sentiment has shown signs of cooling this week. The spot trading of refined nickel is acceptable, and the oversupply pattern of the fundamentals remains unchanged. The premium and discount have decreased due to the influence of contract switching but are still at a high level, so the spot price provides support for the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 2,100 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by - 100 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,759 (- 121.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 208,092 (3,180) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, range trading is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of stainless steel opened at 12,880 yuan/ton and closed at 12,920 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 153,403 lots, and the open interest was 102,650 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel oscillated slightly upward, with a doji positive line on the daily chart. The trading volume of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased slightly. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, and the sharp decline after the rally last Friday night indicated that there was pressure above 13,100 yuan/ton. It is considered that 13,100 yuan/ton is a short - term resistance level. There was a bottom - divergence phenomenon around 12,400 yuan/ton on June 24, and it is estimated that 12,400 yuan/ton is a strong support level in the medium - to - long term [4]. - In the spot market, the morning quotations of merchants in the Foshan market were raised by 50 - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot trading volume has rebounded, and the downstream purchasing sentiment has also improved. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, and most sellers' quotations were around 905 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,000 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,000 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 110 - 310 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 912.0 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. - **Strategy** - Short - term range trading is the main strategy. The upper limit of the estimated range is around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower limit is 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the Fed's interest rate decision and China's official PMI data for July. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, there are no specific strategies [6].