Core Viewpoint - The decline of Helen's, once a promising player in the low-cost bar market, highlights the challenges of maintaining a viable business model in a rapidly changing consumer landscape, contrasting sharply with the success of competitors like Mixue Ice Cream. Company Performance - Helen's market value plummeted from 30.2 billion HKD in 2021 to 1.8 billion HKD, a decline of over 94% [2] - In 2024, Helen's revenue dropped by 37.8% to 75.2 million HKD, with a net loss of 7.8 million HKD [4] - The number of Helen's stores decreased from a peak of 782 to 579 [4] Business Strategy - Helen's initially thrived on a low-cost model targeting young consumers, but faced a "scale trap" leading to significant losses [4] - The company closed over 500 stores in two years as part of a survival strategy, which temporarily resulted in a profit of 18 million HKD in 2023 [4] - In contrast, Mixue Ice Cream reported a revenue growth of 22.29% to 24.83 billion HKD in 2024, with a net profit increase of 41.41% to 4.44 billion HKD [8] Market Positioning - Helen's struggles stem from a mismatch between its low-price positioning and the emotional value sought in social spaces by consumers [5] - Only 34% of Helen's customers are willing to bring friends or partners, compared to 68% for competitors like Hu Tao Li [5] - The rise of alternative social venues, such as camping bars and home drinking experiences, has further diluted Helen's customer base [8] Operational Challenges - Helen's faces a heavy cost structure, with initial investments for franchise stores exceeding 600,000 CNY, compared to Mixue's 210,000 CNY [6] - Labor costs for Helen's surged by 72.5% to 1 billion CNY in 2022, adding to operational burdens [6] - The business model relies heavily on evening traffic, requiring high customer volume and turnover to be profitable [6] Competitive Landscape - The high-end market is dominated by craft beer and whiskey bars, while the low-end market is being encroached upon by convenience stores and e-commerce [6] - Mixue's success is attributed to its strategic focus on lower-tier cities and a product-driven approach that emphasizes high turnover and customer engagement [9] Future Directions - Helen's is attempting a difficult transition to a franchise model, with the "Hi Beer Partner" initiative launched in 2023, but faces challenges with declining sales in franchise stores [10] - The company has adjusted its franchise policies, which has raised concerns among franchisees regarding profitability [10] - The emergence of new social consumption spaces poses a significant threat to traditional bar models like Helen's, as consumer preferences evolve [11]