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天佑德酒(002646):Q3营收短期承压,未来发展韧性仍存
Guotou Securities· 2025-10-28 08:41
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate-A" with a target price of 11.13 yuan, while the current stock price is 9.66 yuan [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 880 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.79%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million yuan, down 62.03% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 207 million yuan, a decrease of 9.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of -30 million yuan, compared to -22 million yuan in the same period last year [1][2]. - The company is facing short-term revenue pressure due to weak demand in the mid-to-high-end liquor market, but it has launched new products like the 28° lemon-flavored barley wine to stimulate growth [2][4]. - Increased marketing investments have led to a rise in expense ratios, with a sales expense ratio of 36.97% in Q3 2025, up 5.68 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is committed to product innovation, with R&D expenditures of 13.18 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 28.63% year-on-year, focusing on upgrading traditional barley wine and developing products targeting younger consumers [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 53.21 million yuan, an increase of 50.02% year-on-year [2]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 57.89% and -14.35%, respectively, reflecting a decline in profitability due to increased marketing expenses [3]. Product Development - The company is focusing on high-end market segments and cultural attributes, launching products like the zodiac commemorative wine and collaborating with other brands to create co-branded products [4]. Future Outlook - Revenue growth rates are projected to be -10.6% in 2025, followed by 6.5% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027. Net profit growth rates are expected to be -62.6% in 2025, 131.6% in 2026, and 60.2% in 2027 [5].