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中国算法为厄尔尼诺精准“画像”!河海大学这项预测系统实现新突破
Yang Zi Wan Bao Wang· 2025-10-10 09:59
Core Insights - The article highlights the advancements made by Hohai University in developing a self-controlled ocean-atmosphere coupling prediction system, which has significantly improved climate forecasting capabilities in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - The ocean-atmosphere coupling prediction system was developed to reduce reliance on foreign numerical models, addressing significant "bottleneck" risks in climate prediction [2]. - Key breakthroughs include the creation of multi-source ocean-atmosphere observation data assimilation technology, which efficiently integrates satellite, buoy, and vessel data [2]. - The development of ensemble filtering assimilation methods has enhanced the quantification of prediction uncertainties by converting single-value outputs into probabilistic ranges [2]. - A parameter estimation and correction system was established to optimize model parameters, significantly reducing model errors [2]. Group 2: Predictive Accuracy - In 2023, the system successfully predicted a moderate-strength El Niño event nine months in advance, with a prediction accuracy improvement of over 15% compared to international mainstream models [3]. - The system is capable of accurately forecasting other critical climate phenomena, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, providing reliable climate support for major events like the Beijing Winter Olympics [3]. Group 3: Practical Applications - The prediction system has become an integral part of the national marine environment forecasting center, contributing to decision-making for flood prevention, drought relief, water resource management, food production, energy supply, and major engineering projects [4]. - The system has received national recognition, including certification from the China Meteorological Administration and a first-class award from Jiangsu Province for marine science and technology [4]. - Over the past decade, the team has transitioned from reliance on foreign models to developing a complete set of assimilation technologies, achieving a leap in China's marine environment forecasting capabilities [4].