1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recent weather has little impact, and domestic rubber tapping is expected to proceed smoothly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 This Week's Important Weather Warnings 3.1.1 Long - term Climate Dynamics - The Nino3.4 index is 0.2 (+0.2), in a neutral state. There is over a 40% probability of a weak El Niño phenomenon from May to August, and the probability increases to 60% from September to October, with the intensity possibly strengthening significantly compared to the prediction at the beginning of the year. The El Niño may reduce rainfall in the western Pacific surrounding production areas and increase the risk of high - temperature drought [1] - The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has turned negative to - 0.13, weakening rainfall around Indonesia [1] - The Madden - Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the 7th stage area, remaining weak. It may strengthen in mid - April and develop towards the 8th stage, with increased precipitation in West African production areas and no impact on Southeast Asian production areas [1] 3.1.2 Production Areas' Conditions - **China**: Yunnan's tapping range has expanded, with smooth trial tapping and good glue output, 7 - 10 days earlier than usual. Hainan has good phenological conditions, with the western line starting trial tapping and the southern tapping range expanding, 1 - 2 weeks earlier than usual. Thailand's northern and northeastern regions are mostly in the non - tapping period, and the southern region has low drought risk after recent rainfall but needs to be monitored for high - temperature and low - rainfall problems from April to June. Vietnam is in the non - tapping period and is expected to start trial tapping next week [2] - **Indochina Peninsula**: Cambodia is in the non - tapping period with normal phenological conditions. Myanmar's central region has normal weather, while the southern region has less rainfall and needs to be vigilant against high - temperature drought. Laos has started trial tapping, but early - stage glue production may be limited due to limited rainfall and high - temperature weather [5] - **Malay Archipelago**: Indonesia has less cumulative rainfall than the historical average this year. Malaysia's Malay Peninsula has had less precipitation in the first quarter, and the production area is in the leaf - falling period. The Philippines' Mindanao region has normal rainfall in late March, and the production area is in the low - yield season [7] - **South Asia**: India's northeastern region is in the non - tapping season with high - temperature and continuous rainy weather, increasing the risk of diseases such as powdery mildew. The southwestern region is approaching the end of the tapping season. Sri Lanka has intermittent rainfall and normal weather [7] - **West Africa**: Côte d'Ivoire is mostly in the non - tapping period during the dry season and is expected to start a new production season at the end of April. Rainfall from February to March was close to normal, and recent heavy rainfall has improved soil moisture [7] 3.2 Production Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides detailed rainfall data for various production areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, year - on - year percentage change, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, distance from the average, and forecast precipitation for this week and the next week [6][8] 3.3 Production Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There is no impact from tropical depressions and no flood disasters. Thailand's main production areas have no flood risk, with most river water levels remaining low. The risk of drought and fire is low, but attention should be paid to northeastern Thailand, southern Myanmar, and the Laos production area [9] 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Production Area - The report provides precipitation and soil humidity forecast maps, as well as various meteorological indicator tracking data such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly, temperature comparison, and average wind speed for production areas in China, Indochina Peninsula, Malay Archipelago, South Asia, and West Africa [11][49][106][138][163] 3.5 Appendix 3.5.1 Appendix 1: Planting Area and Yield Distribution of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas - Global natural rubber is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%, with Thailand's planting area accounting for about 1/4, Indonesia about 1/5, and the rest being more dispersed. In terms of yield, Thailand accounts for over 30% of the global total, Indonesia 15%, and Côte d'Ivoire over 10% [183] 3.5.2 Appendix 2: Phenological Period of Rubber and the Impact of Weather - The phenological period of rubber trees includes "leaf - falling period - budding period - bronze period - light - green period - stable period (aging period)". New leaves are most sensitive to weather and natural disasters before maturity, and are also vulnerable to diseases and pests. Long - term natural rubber production mainly depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term production is more affected by weather factors [191] 3.5.3 Appendix 3: Production Cycle and Potential Meteorological Risks of Main Natural Rubber Production Areas - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with a high - yield period from September to November and a low - yield period from February to March. Due to geographical and climatic differences, the focus of weather factors to be monitored varies in different production areas. The non - tapping time is postponed from high - latitude to low - latitude areas and the duration shortens [193]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current weak La Nina phenomenon may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with a probability of over 45% of turning into a weak El Nino phenomenon between June and August, which may intensify weather disturbances in the rubber - producing areas [1]. - There are precipitation and temperature issues in various rubber - producing areas around the world. For example, there are low - temperature and less - rain conditions in China's Yunnan and Hainan, which may lead to drought and forest fire risks; some areas in Thailand, Vietnam, and other countries also face different degrees of precipitation and temperature problems that affect rubber production [2][4]. - The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics, and different weather factors need to be focused on [215]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Important Meteorological Warnings - **Climate Dynamics**: The Nino3.4 index is - 0.5 (- 0.1), and the weak La Nina phenomenon continues. It may last until February 2026 and gradually transition to ENSO neutral, with over 45% probability of turning into a weak El Nino between June and August. The DMI index of the Indian Ocean Dipole is - 0.63, and the Madden - Julian Oscillation is in the third - stage area with an increasing trend [1]. - **Chinese Producing Areas**: Yunnan is in the off - season, with low precipitation and normal soil humidity. Low - temperature and less - rain conditions lead to thorough leaf - falling of rubber trees, and the risk of powdery mildew spread is low. In Hainan, rainfall is less than the same period, soil humidity is decreasing, and there may be large - scale meteorological drought in spring, with high forest fire risks [2]. - **Foreign Producing Areas**: Thailand is out of the rainy season, with low soil humidity and less rainfall recently. Vietnam has less rain, and the glue output in high - altitude areas is affected by low - temperature at night. Cambodia is at the end of the tapping season with less rain. Myanmar has a risk of drought due to less rain. Laos has less rain and decreasing soil humidity. Indonesia has increased rain disturbances, and Malaysia is in the peak rainy season [4][5]. 3.2 Producing Area Rainfall Data Summary - The report provides the weekly precipitation data of major natural rubber producing areas, including monthly cumulative precipitation, monthly year - on - year percentage, weekly cumulative precipitation, weekly difference, this - week forecast precipitation, and next - week forecast precipitation [7][9]. 3.3 Producing Area Sudden Disaster Monitoring - There is a tropical depression in the south - west Indian Ocean, which may slightly affect the southeastern Indian and Sri Lankan producing areas. Thailand's main producing areas have less rain, and most river water levels are low. Yunnan and Hainan have less precipitation, high forest fire risks, and the weak El Nino from June to August may affect the first - half - year output if there is still less rain in the second quarter [10]. 3.4 Weather Conditions in Each Producing Area - **Chinese Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts for Hainan and Yunnan, as well as various meteorological indicator tracking data such as daily precipitation distribution, monthly precipitation distribution, annual cumulative precipitation, soil humidity anomaly, temperature comparison, and average wind speed [12][16]. - **Indochina Peninsula Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, and Laos [62][64]. - **Malay Archipelago Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines [128][135]. - **South Asian Producing Areas**: It provides 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for India and Sri Lanka [162][164]. - **West African Producing Areas**: It includes 7 - day and 30 - day precipitation forecasts, 7 - day and monthly deep - soil average humidity forecasts, and meteorological indicator tracking data for the Cote d'Ivoire producing area [193][194]. 3.5 Appendix - **Appendix 1**: Global natural rubber is mainly planted in Southeast Asia, accounting for about 80%. Thailand's planting area accounts for about 1/4, and Indonesia's about 1/5. In terms of output, Thailand accounts for over 30% globally, Indonesia about 15%, and Cote d'Ivoire over 10% [203]. - **Appendix 2**: The phenological period of rubber trees is divided into five stages, and the new - leaf growth period is sensitive to weather and prone to diseases and pests. Long - term natural rubber output depends on planting area and tree - age structure, while short - term output is affected by weather [212][213]. - **Appendix 3**: The supply of global natural rubber has obvious seasonality, with the high - yield period from September to November and the low - yield period from February to March. The production cycle of each producing area is affected by geographical and climate characteristics [215].

Core Insights - The article highlights the advancements made by Hohai University in developing a self-controlled ocean-atmosphere coupling prediction system, which has significantly improved climate forecasting capabilities in China [1][2][3]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - The ocean-atmosphere coupling prediction system was developed to reduce reliance on foreign numerical models, addressing significant "bottleneck" risks in climate prediction [2]. - Key breakthroughs include the creation of multi-source ocean-atmosphere observation data assimilation technology, which efficiently integrates satellite, buoy, and vessel data [2]. - The development of ensemble filtering assimilation methods has enhanced the quantification of prediction uncertainties by converting single-value outputs into probabilistic ranges [2]. - A parameter estimation and correction system was established to optimize model parameters, significantly reducing model errors [2]. Group 2: Predictive Accuracy - In 2023, the system successfully predicted a moderate-strength El Niño event nine months in advance, with a prediction accuracy improvement of over 15% compared to international mainstream models [3]. - The system is capable of accurately forecasting other critical climate phenomena, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole, providing reliable climate support for major events like the Beijing Winter Olympics [3]. Group 3: Practical Applications - The prediction system has become an integral part of the national marine environment forecasting center, contributing to decision-making for flood prevention, drought relief, water resource management, food production, energy supply, and major engineering projects [4]. - The system has received national recognition, including certification from the China Meteorological Administration and a first-class award from Jiangsu Province for marine science and technology [4]. - Over the past decade, the team has transitioned from reliance on foreign models to developing a complete set of assimilation technologies, achieving a leap in China's marine environment forecasting capabilities [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report uses satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and historical yield models to estimate the yields of key global agricultural products in August 2025 and monitor their growth. The estimated yields of key monitored crops have increased to varying degrees. - La Niña is expected to appear in September, with a weak intensity and lasting until January 2026, with a probability of 50%-60%. The Indian Ocean Dipole has turned negative, which together promotes more precipitation in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to form a long-term drought. - The weather in South America is less affected by La Niña. Periodic droughts may affect southern Brazil and northern Argentina, but the rhythm is earlier than in 2024, and the overall intensity is similar [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Global Key Agricultural Product Yield Estimation - **Varieties, Time Window, and Method**: The monitoring cycle covers the growth period of crops in the Northern Hemisphere in August 2025. The monitored varieties include US soybeans, corn, cotton, Canadian rapeseed, Australian rapeseed, and Southeast Asian palm oil. The time - cycle spans 20 years from 2005 to 2025, using current and historical data. The monitoring uses 24 key indicators from satellite remote sensing, meteorological data, and field observations, and a self - built yield model based on a deep - learning algorithm [6][7][12]. - **Yield Estimation Results**: Overall, the growth and development of key crops in each region are in good condition, and the yields are generally on the rise. The US soybean and corn regions are likely to set historical records. Cotton yields have increased compared to the previous month. Canadian rapeseed yields are expected to reach 2.27 tons per hectare, and Australian rapeseed yields have been raised to 1.79 tons per hectare [13]. Global Key Agricultural Product Growth Monitoring - **Malaysian and Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices in the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra have increased, while those in Kalimantan have declined. Only precipitation in the Malay Peninsula has increased, and temperature and humidity have fluctuated moderately [16][19]. - **US Soybean and Corn Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices in most states have increased significantly. The growth of soybeans and corn in the Midwest has reached a new high, and the eastern region is also above the historical average. Precipitation shows regional differentiation, and soil humidity in most states has increased significantly. Temperature fluctuations are moderate [25][30][31]. - **US Cotton Producing Areas**: Vegetation indices show a differentiated trend, with Oklahoma showing overall growth and the southeast experiencing a decline in LAI. Precipitation varies greatly, and soil humidity fluctuates slightly. Temperatures in the southeast have decreased, while those in Oklahoma and Texas have slightly increased [40][41][45]. - **Canadian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: No detailed content provided in the report. - **Australian Rapeseed Producing Areas**: No detailed content provided in the report. Analysis of the Trends of La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole in the Second Half of the Year - La Niña is expected to appear in September, with a weak intensity and lasting until January 2026, with a probability of 50% - 60%. The Indian Ocean Dipole has turned negative, which together promotes more precipitation in Southeast Asia, making it difficult to form a long - term drought [2]. Analysis of the Future Weather Trends in South America - The weather in South America is less affected by La Niña. Periodic droughts may affect southern Brazil and northern Argentina, but the rhythm is earlier than in 2024, and the overall intensity is similar [2].